Lunch w/ Luuch: NFL Player Props Picks That Could Feast on Thanksgiving (11/22/22)
Justin Carlucci takes a bite of some NFL player props picks for Thursday’s games.
Happy Thanksgiving! I wish you all a happy, safe holiday with family, friends or whoever you plan on spending the day with!
We’re spoiled with three games to pick from on Thursday, so we might as well try and make some money!
Let’s cut to the chase and find some Thanksgiving winners.
- Editor’s Note: Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting now!
Free NFL Player Props Picks For Thanksgiving
I’m not overthinking this one. Detroit yields the fourth-highest successful pass rate, while also giving up the eighth-highest target percentage to receivers at the sixth-best success rate. In case I have to rattle off Diggs number to sell you, he owns a 29% target-market share and 36% of the Bills’ air-yard market share. This is an ideal bounce-back spot for him on Thursday.
- CeeDee Lamb Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Somehow, Lamb has only gone for 100+ yards once this season. We should see some positive regression. Lamb owns a 31% target-market share and 40% of the team’s air-yard market share. Those are huge numbers. His volume has been pretty incredible. Lamb will square off against the Giants on Thursday, who have been fairly stingy against the pass, but still give up the fourth-highest target percentage to receivers. Lamb was essentially game-scripted out of last week’s blowout win against Minnesota. I don’t expect the same result on Thanksgiving.
- Dalton Schultz Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110 on BetMGM)
I like this bounce-back spot for both Lamb and Schultz. Schultz missed this number last week, but hit in the previous three. He dealt with Cooper Rush for many weeks. With Dak at the helm, and what should be more of a neutral game script, I’m projecting this number to be roughly 10 yards higher than it’s currently at. Additionally, the Giants aren’t very good against tight ends. Schultz ranks second on Dallas in target-market share over the last five weeks. Carty’s The Blitz system is on the same wavelength as me in both of these Cowboys’ props.
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-114 on FanDuel)
Stevenson has hit this number in 50% of games since he took over the alpha role of the backfield in Week 3. However, Stevenson has eclipsed this number in three of his last four games and has been heavily targeted. He is second on the team in target-market share, but first over the last five weeks! I like him to go over this number on Thursday as an integral check-down target for Mac Jones, who simply isn’t very good.