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Nuggets vs. Bucks: NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions (1/25/23)

Nick Galaida Wed 1/25 1:29pm PT
Sports betting experts are backing the under in the bucks vs. celtics nba playoff game tonight.
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Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida gives his best NBA pick for today’s Nuggets vs. Bucks game — Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2023.

Nuggets vs. Bucks Odds

On Wednesday, the Milwaukee Bucks will host the Denver Nuggets at the Fiserv Forum.

Entering play, Denver (34-14) owns the best record in the Western Conference, while Milwaukee (30-17) is four games behind the Boston Celtics for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Tonight, oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable victory for Giannis Antetokounmpo and company, pricing them as 10.5-point home favorites on the spread.

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview

Following a 99-98 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday, the Nuggets have listed Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bones Hyland, and Michael Porter Jr. as questionable ahead of Wednesday’s action in Milwaukee.

Assuming that both Jokic and Murray will be out this evening (each of whom played at least 36 minutes yesterday) Denver’s chances of winning this contest decrease exponentially.

Per Cleaning the Glass, when both Jokic and Murray are off of the floor at the same time this year, the Nuggets rank in the 10th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 14th percentile in defensive efficiency. 

The sample size of data available to analyze with Jokic, Murray, and Caldwell-Pope off of the floor is extremely small.

If Porter Jr. is removed from the data set, there are even fewer minutes to analyze. 
Though there is not enough playing time for bettors to analyze on/off court data in a meaningful way ahead of this contest, the logical player to see an expanded offensive workload is Aaron Gordon.

If each of the five players listed as questionable all end up in street clothes this evening, Gordon will be one of only two players on the floor for the Nuggets who are averaging more than 7.6 points per game this season. Bruce Brown and Jeff Green are also candidates for more responsibility in this matchup.

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Preview

On Monday, Khris Middleton returned to the floor for the first time since December 15. He logged 15 minutes and scored eight points against the Detroit Pistons. It was only the eighth game played for the veteran small forward this season.

In 152 possessions together this season, the combination of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Middleton is averaging 129.6 points per 100 possessions. In a much larger sample size from last season, Milwaukee’s big three averaged 121.1 points per 100 possessions when sharing the court. Middleton’s return, in any capacity, is a tremendous boon to the Bucks offense.

Tonight, the Bucks will be without Bobby Portis, who is dealing with a right knee sprain. In 47 games played this season, he is averaging 14.4 points and 10.1 rebounds in 26.8 minutes of action.
Per CourtIQ, Holiday sees a modest increase in rebounds when Portis is not on the floor. In these situations, he is averaging 6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes. Dating back to last season, Holiday has recorded four rebounds or more in each of his last four games played with Portis on the sidelines.

Nuggets vs. Bucks – Picks & Prediction

Yesterday, the Denver Nuggets played only nine players in their one-point victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. Today, five of those nine players are candidates to be inactive – meaning that role players who are not used to seeing action on a regular basis will be forced into the fray against one of the NBA’s most formidable teams.

Though Khris Middleton is not completely healthy yet, his return to the floor is a major boon for the Milwaukee Bucks. After scoring 150 points against the Detroit Pistons earlier this week, this lineup is poised to have a glorified scrimmage against Denver’s backups on Wednesday – expect the Bucks to do a lot of damage once again in a comfortable win.

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