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Odds & Ends (2/23/22): Catching Up For The Return of NBA Betting & DFS

Justin Carlucci Thu 2/24 8:49am PT
Image Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn

The ScoresAndOdds team will be ready to offer a ton of NBA expert picks on Thursday.

The NBA will be returning on Thursday after what felt like an eternity of an All-Star break.

Let’s quickly discuss the Dunk Contest and All-Star game, followed by what’s on tap, and all of the moving parts around the league in preparation for Thursday.

Grading Two Biggest All-Star Weekend Events

Since I was a kid, growing up, I loved the all-star weekend events in every major sport. They were their own little holidays in my eyes.

From Marv Albert calling hoops, to Chris Berman’s back-back-back, gone – nothing was better.

Unfortunately, on Saturday, we objectively witnessed the worst slam dunk contest of all time (c’mon, it has to be).

What a disgrace. At this point, the league might as well get rid of it.

My 7-year old, who recently started to take a strong liking to hoops, wasn’t even impressed. He could have surely made better dunks on his nerf hoop hanging from the closet doors. I almost told him to go turn back on the “Ninja Kids” or whatever ridiculousness I have to tolerate regularly.

But then I YouTube’d some older clips and he was blown away by Spudd Webb, Jason Richardson and especially Blake Griffin jumping over a car in 2011!

Blake not only brought a car into the arena, but a CHOIR! It was amazing to see these guys exhaust all of their options. When did the dunk contest become less of a priority?

The Aaron Gordon vs. Zach LaVine duel already seems like forever ago. I’m disappointed that epic battle in 2016 didn’t rekindle an old league-wide flame.

OK, some change is good..

Implementing the “Elam Ending” rule change to the all-star game over the last three years has been fantastic.

It’s been great to finally see some competitiveness from both sides, as it’s the only opportunity we get to see the best in the world on the floor, at the same time.

Stephen Curry was on fire, and as great as the Warriors dynasty run was, it sometimes feels like he’s the forgotten soul of this generation, which is a testament to how special the talents of LeBron James and Kevin Durant have been over the past 10-20 years (man, we’re getting old).

Expert Nick Galaida made some great calls over the weekend, which helped make the break tolerable!

What’s On Tap?

Thursday kicks off the late-season push to the playoffs with a 7-game slate, including a TNT double-header.

Boston @ Brooklyn

Boston travels to Brooklyn as rightful road favorites to take on the Nets, who will be without the service of Kyrie Irving at home.

The Scoop

It’s still not clear when Ben Simmons will play basketball again, while of course, Kevin Durant and Joe Harris (and Irving) are still out, while James Harden is long gone. James Johnson is also questionable.

New arrival Seth Curry, Patty Mills, and a handful of journeymen guards will play as many minutes as they can handle.

As for Boston, Robert Williams and Marcus Smart are questionable. Newcomer Derrick White has played well with his new squad before the break.

First Glance DFS Thoughts

These Nets side-car players are still fairly priced in their current larger roles, but the matchup is brutal.

You can make a case for any of their cheap guards who will garner more minutes than they will a month or two from now when Brooklyn is healthy.

I have interest in White at his cheap tag if Smart doesn’t play, against this Swiss-cheese Nets’ defense.

Lock Down Defense

Over the last 10 games, before the break, the Celtics owned the best defensive rating in the league – and according to Hollinger, play at the 24th pace (slow).

But Defense Doesn’t Matter For Dre

Andre Drummond is finally over $6K on DraftKings, which hopefully keeps his ownership in check. He hasn’t played a ton of minutes as a starter with the Nets, and I quite frankly never understood anything less.

How could it be a serious cardio issue if he was actively playing for the 76ers this entire season? Will the time off technically damper his odds of playing more than 25 minutes Thursday?

I’ll be honest, I don’t know, and Steve Nash has quickly become one of the most frustrating coaches in the league to figure out from a daily fantasy sports perspective. Call him the new Michael Malone!

The RotoGrinders premium NBA projections team has him projected for 22 minutes, but I think there is upside for more.

Regardless, Drummond is an elite, historical fantasy point per-minute producer and is a top tournament option with his elite upside and ability to smash in less than 25 minutes at his price.

Cleveland @ Detroit

The Cavs and their two all-stars travel to Detroit as current 8.5-point favorites, in a game that features the lowest total on the board.

The Scoop

Lauri Markkanen is questionable to play for Cleveland, while Frank Jackson’s status is in question for Detroit.

Neither should impact the NBA odds too much, but Markkanen could make a few DFS plays a bit less attractive if he ties his shoes.

First Glance DFS Thoughts

We’re still uncertain how Cavs’ newcomer Caris LeVert will carve into the usage and roles of his teammates.

However, in two games before the break, Darius Garland owned usages of at least 33% in both games, which is encouraging to keep backing him on nights where you see fit.

Kevin Love continues to rewind time, and is always going to be a lower-owned GPP option due to his volatile minutes and a clean bill of health for the other CLE bigs.

However, Love’s DK price is down to $6,200, which has me considering shares if his projected ownership is low.

I don’t want to invest too much into this game, as it should be low scoring and play at a snails’ pace.

Minutes = Success

However, Cade Cunningham was working his way back from a minor injury before the break, and looked more than fine during the events that he participated in during all-star weekend.

RotoGrinders currently has him projected for over 30 minutes, and he is a border-line cash-game lock at $6,600.

The rook’ has 50-point upside, regardless of matchup, as he dropped a triple-double against these same Cavs less than a month ago.

It’s tough to give concrete advice more than 24-hours ahead of time, which in NBA DFS feels like a millennium, but I’d plan on targeting him in all formats – unless he’s egregiously owned (for GPPs).

Phoenix @ Oklahoma City

Phoenix is a heavy road favorite (-10.5) against the forever rebuilding Thunder.

The Scoop

Chris Paul is out 6-8 weeks, but he decided to pick up some burn during the all-star game? What?!

I am imagining there were some unhappy higher-ups in the Phoenix front office, but it’s a superstars’ league, and “superstars gonna’ superstars.”

Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne are also questionable for the Suns, while it gets messier on the OKC side of things.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Kenrich Williams, ty Jerome and Mike Muscala are all officially questionable. Woof.

First Glance DFS Thoughts

We saw Dort shine in the absence of SGA.

As seen with RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Lu gets a 4% usage bump without SGA on the court this season, and would be a decent candidate to exceed his prop point total, if the Thunder can keep it competitive.

Gettin’ Giddey With It

Now, if SGA AND Dort both sit, we saw Josh Giddey turn into a one-man wrecking crew over the last four weeks of data, receiving a 3.6% usage bump, and scoring over four more real points per-36 minutes. He’s a live candidate to triple-double any game when both of his main colleagues sit. Keep an eye on this NBA injury news.

Pain to Payne

If Cameron Payne does play, he’ll be mega chalk on this slate at his minimum FanDuel salary.

Pending he’s healthy, and plays, he’d be your first stop for cash games, and would be hard to fade in tournaments.

Thus, Elfrid Payton has certainly played worse (trying to be nice) and could be an intriguing tournament pivot (seriously).

Why are we interested in both guards for DFS? Because of the minutes increase during CP3’s absence.

One would expect Devin Booker to hoist at will. However, I’m more interested to see if we get an assist-rate increase, as he should have more “point-Book” opportunities.

In fact, according to Court IQ, Booker averages over a full assist more per-36 minutes without Paul on the court this season. Keep an eye on that dimes prop.

Atlanta @ Chicago

Vegas pegs this as a competitive Eastern Conference clash, with the Bulls 3.5 home favorites, and a fantasy-friendly game total of 234.5

The Scoop

Zach LaVine appeared to be fine, as he played, and played pretty well, in limited action over the break.

However, the Bulls are still without Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams.

The Hawks will likely be without talented forward John Collins, who is listed as doubtful.

First Glance DFS Thoughts

With LaVine back in the fold, it’s tough to pay for any of these Bulls at their inflated prices. They were certainly strong GPP plays without LaVine, but his usage, in-and-out of the lineup matters – a lot.

I’m imagining, if all active, the Bulls’ big-3 will come in at low ownership, and should only be considered as large-field tournament plays.

I can’t see more than one of them “getting there” at their current price tags unless the game goes to overtime, or two.

However, I am perfectly fine with trying to get a ceiling game out of one of them in your lineup, especially if the Bull correlates with someone from Atlanta.

Trae Szn

Trae Young produces more fantasy points without John Collins. Big facts, as the kids say.

RotoGrinders CourtIQ Tool

You can see Young’s whopping usage and DraftKings points per-minute metrics above.

During a 500+ minute sample without Collins on the court this season, Young gets a 3.1% usage bump and (in theory) averages 5.28 more real points per-36 minutes.

I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on his points’ prop total when the books release it. I’m certainly interested in him on all DFS platforms, regardless of his price.

Memphis @ Minnesota

The Grizzlies (-2) travel to take on the Timberwolves, in what should close at the highest game total (239) of the night.

The Scoop

Dillon Brooks remains out for Memphis and Xavier Tillman is questionable.

As now, there are no real injury concerns for Minnesota, who had just about everyone on the planet listed as a GTD before the break, for multiple days.

First Glance DFS Thoughts

Much like Chicago, for GPPs, I’m not crazy about playing anyone on Minnesota when they’re fully healthy, unless it’s in a game stack.

However, Anthony Edwards was on a serious heater before the break, and could always pop in with a ceiling game.

I have more interest in the sticker shock of Ja Morant and his back-court colleague Desmond Bane.

In what should be the highest game total of the night, both teams play a top-5 pace in the league. Everyone is squarely in play during fast, high-total atmospheres, but I tend to favor the ballhandlers.

He’s a Morant-ster

Morant came back from his minor injury for one game before the break and recorded monster 38% usage and shot over 20 free throws.

Ja didn’t get much of a chance to shine in the all-star game, so if we’re playing any kind of narrative-y goodness on top of a smash environment, I’m thinking he’s ready to ball. As good as Morant has been this year, the public is still reluctant to pay $10K+ for him.

Denver @ Sacramento

The Nuggets (-4.5) are road favorites against the Kings, with a 229.5 total, which could be a great game for DFS tournaments.

The Scoop

Other than Michael Porter and Jamal Murray, who have been out for almost the entire season, the Nuggets are fairly healthy.

Davion Mitchell and Jeremy Lamb are questionable for the Kings, while Terence Davis remains out.

First Glance DFS Thoughts

Of course, you can play Nikola Jokic on any slate, and you should on most nights.

But let’s talk about the home team.

It’s Magic, Ya Know?

Poof! De’Aaron Fox’s “injury” magically healed after the trade deadline, which shipped out some of his old pals to Indiana.

Fox has been fantastic, from a real scoring perspective, since his return, averaging over 28 real points per game and a 30% usage. He’s priced accordingly at just over $8K, as the peripheral stats, mostly assists, just haven’t been there.

Perhaps he’s in pure alpha-mode now without Hield, Haliburton and Davis. If Mitchell is out, he’ll likely take 20+ shots again and replicate that new usage. I’m curious to see what the books open at on Thursday, and blindly have interest in his points over.

Fox’s New Friend

Domantas Sabonis finally delivered with a 50+ DKP game before the break. It’s not my favorite matchup, against Denver, but I am curious where the ownership falls.

If Sabonis comes in anywhere under 20%, I’m very interested for tournaments, as his price dropped to $9K flat, which gives him real 6-7x upside.

Another surprising move prior to the deadline was the abrupt waiving of Tristan Thompson. The front-court was a bit crowded, and I was slightly worried about how Sabonis would be used, but this helps solidify the hefty workload that he deserves.

Sabonis has proved to be an elite fantasy player and let’s see how far this “what have you done for me lately” society will go. Buy low.

Golden State @ Portland

The Warriors are 7-p0int road favorites against the Trail Blazers during the late night hammer on TNT.

The Scoop

Draymond Green and James Wiseman remain out for Golden State, while Andre Iguodala is questionable.

Here’s the current Portland injury report:

A look at the Blazers’ injury news on RotoGrinders

First Glance DFS Thoughts

Many of the Warriors will likely be tournament plays, based on projected ownership of course.

Stephen Curry, the newly first-time ASG MVP, absolutely dominated over the weekend.

Of course, it’s just another day at the office for the star of the Brita water commercials.

Seriously, though, Curry is always squarely in play and I’m excited to see how he follows up that 50-point bomb on TNT Thursday.

Klay Day?

I don’t know when Klay Thompson’s minutes’ leash will be off.

But when Steve Kerr finally let’s the dog roam freely, with 33-35 minutes, I want to be ahead of the herd. I’ll take some shots and try to get my shares of him.

Thompson has been a solid contributor since his return, averaging 40 DKP per-36 minutes, and always has a chance to go off in limited run. Would be nice if he actually played 36 after a week-long vacation!

Living Up To The “Weirdness”

Turns out, Portland is weird.

The Blazers deemed that they no longer needed the services of Dennis Smith Jr., saying goodbye to him since the team last played basketball together.

Most of the “main” Portland contributors are fairly priced (Simons, Nurkic) and I’m not going out of my way to target them.

However, if Eric Bledsoe does indeed play, at $4,300, I have some mild tournament interest in him. I also don’t mind Josh Hart (DK: $7,200), who is always a GPP play, and has been great since putting the Blazers’ uniform on.

Thanks for stopping in! Good luck and enjoy the basketball!