UFC 274 Betting Preview: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions, and Props

MMA betting expert Liam Heslin takes you inside the octagon to preview UFC 274 odds and predictions for Oliveira vs. Gaethje. Check out our BetMGM bonus to get a $1000 free UFC bet tonight!

UFC 274 Main Event Preview: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

UFC 274 and fight cards like it are the reason I wanted to work in this industry. The UFC Lightweight Championship clash between Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira and Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje has a “big fight feel” and the stakes could not be more clear. 

Gaethje was quickly and soundly defeated by Khabib Nurmagomedov in his first crack at an undisputed UFC lightweight title shot. At 33 years of age, it is unlikely that Gaethje will be able to remain atop the crowded heap of talented lightweights for much longer. His path to lightweight glory will run through the surging Charles Oliveira, a UFC lifer who achieved championship status after amassing one of the most impressive finishing resumes in the history of the sport. 

By the numbers, Charles is the most lethal submission grappler in UFC history and his muay thai striking has shown its best form in recent performances. Gaethje to his credit is a Division I wrestling All-American, a multiple time MMA champion, and a UFC post fight bonus machine, accruing fights of the night and performances bonuses alongside several fight of the year contenders in his relatively short UFC tenure (8-3 since debuting in 2017). 

Oliveira vs. Gaethje Odds Breakdown

This fight is expected to be fireworks, with oddsmakers pricing the fight not to go to decision at a market average of -445 (81.7%). This is because Oliveira and Gaethje possess 91% and 87% finish rates in their victories. Moreover, Gaethje has been finished by his opponent in 3/3 pro losses while Charles has been finished by his opponent in 7/8 pro losses. In simple terms, this reflects an extremely high likelihood that one of these two men will defeat the other inside the distance on Saturday night.Oliveira opened offshore for this fight as a -205 (~67.2%) favorite but by the time the market had made it to Vegas sportsbooks he opened -165 (~62.3%), a 5% market move in the direction of Gaethje. We have continued to see action roll in slowly on the Gaethje side, pushing the opening price from +175 (~36.4%) down to a market average of +143 (41.2%).

Gaethje has performed quite admirably as a UFC underdog, producing a 4-2 record at an average odds of +144 (~41%) for a 57% ROI and an overperformance of market expectations by ~26%. That being said, Oliveira has also delivered as a favorite historically, securing a record of 10 wins and 2 losses at an average odds of -202 (66.9%). His ROI in the favorite distinction is a respectable 21.8% with a 16% surplus of win equity relative to market expectations. If you backed Gaethje and Oliveira on the money line in their UFC career, you would be sitting on a greater than 40% ROI on both fighters, so they have a proven ability to exceed market expectations and deliver in multiple odds categories. 

The measurables in this fight are quite close, but worth mentioning nonetheless. Gaethje will be at virtual height parity if not slightly taller than Charles with both fighters listed between 5’10” and 5’11”. Oliveira on the other hand will possess a 4” reach advantage (74” vs. 70”) and a one year youth advantage (33 vs. 32). Gaethje will be bringing a Southpaw stance to this matchup, while Oliveira will operate out primarily out of the orthodox stance, lending itself to an open stance matchup. As far as I am concerned, the measurables in this fight will be less determinative than the stylistics. 

UFC 274 Main Event Predictions and Picks

The style matchup is intriguing. Many people are calling this “a classic grappler vs. striker fight” but that is not nearly descriptive enough for the dynamics we can expect here. This is an example of an elite wrestler boxer against a multi-tooled MMA threat with a speciality in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Muay Thai. Within the style matchup, we have a much higher volume of strikes from Gaethje which will create an extremely high pace rate of exchanges. In open space, Gaethje is the sharper pure boxer with fast hands, dangerous combinations, and hard to read angle resets. However, as the pocket closes, Gaethje becomes as hittable as Oliveira. Both men have devastating low kicks, but Gaethje is much more insistent on his low kick game. Investing in low kicks early could pay dividends in corralling the lengthy, bouncy Oliviera down the stretch. 

Oliveira will be looking to crack and hurt Gaethje with long hooks, tepe kicks, round kicks, elbows, intercepting knees, and clinch strikes. He will likely seek to mix in TD attempts and create scramble opportunities wherein he can lock on any one of his many fight altering if not ending submission attempts. However, Gaethje has demonstrated good hips, excellent scrambling ability, strong body control, and a fleetness of foot that should allow him to turn and face Oliveira if he tries to pursue takedowns or back takes from standing. 

Picks

Justin Gaethje Money Line at +155 & ITD at +200 available on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Under 4.5 Rounds at -350 available on BetWay.

Sneaky Prop(s) / Hedge

Either Fighter by KO at +130 on DraftKings.

Oliveira by KO at +700 on BetWay