San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves (5/14/22): Odds, Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Padres vs. Braves odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick for Sunday’s game. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance!

Padres vs Braves Odds

On Saturday, the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves will continue a three-game set at Truist Park. The Padres emerged victorious in the series opener yesterday by a final score of 11-6. San Diego will send Sean Manaea to the hill this afternoon as they go for their second consecutive win. Atlanta will counter with Charlie Morton.  Oddsmakers anticipate a bounce-back day for Atlanta, pricing them as -148 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

San Diego Padres

Sean Manaea owns a 3.75 ERA, 3.52 xERA, and a 3.47 FIP through his first six turns in the rotation in 2022 for his new ballclub. In three starts on the road, Manaea owns a 2.95 FIP, 26.4 strikeout percentage, and a 0.76 WHIP–each of which is significantly better than his numbers at Petco Park in a limited sample size to begin the campaign. The primary concern backing Manaea continues to be his proclivity for allowing loud contact–ranking in the 25th percentile in average exit velocity and the 40th percentile in hard-hit percentage so far this season. He draws a semi-favorable matchup this afternoon, but there are always red flags when trusting the veteran southpaw.

San Diego’s offense has been scuffling of late, ranking 17th in OPS, 17th in ISO, 8th in walk percentage, and 11th in strikeout percentage across the last two weeks of action. On the year, this group ranks only 20th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 3rd in walk percentage, and 16th in strikeout percentage when facing right-handed pitching. Though the Padres scored 11 runs yesterday, they could be due for some negative regression today. 

Luis Garcia, Taylor Rogers, Robert Suarez, and Steven Wilson each appeared in yesterday’s victory, but only Garcia has thrown more than once in the last three days. Though using relievers on back-to-back days is never ideal, fatigue is only a minor concern for the Friars in the late innings today.

Atlanta Braves

In his age-38 season, Charlie Morton has finally begun to reveal tangible signs of decline. His 5.65 ERA, 5.43 xERA, and 5.09 FIP are only mildly alarming in isolation through six starts. More concerning are the underlying metrics that have resulted in the poor surface-level numbers. Morton’s 12.7 percent walk rate represents a career-worst during his 15-year big-league career. His 17.2 strikeout percentage is the lowest he has posted since 2015. He is allowing the most hard-hit balls since his 2016 season, with a significant reduction in groundball-rate as well. There are not many positives to highlight for the Atlanta starter right now.

Perhaps even more concerning for Braves’ fans, Ronald Acuna Jr. has not played in a baseball game since Tuesday with a groin injury. Fortunately, the expectation is that Acuna Jr. will return to the leadoff position for Saturday’s affair. The return of Acuna Jr. would only help an offense that ranks 7th in OPS, 8th in ISO, 10th in walk-rate, and 16th in strikeout percentage over the last week of action.

Manager Brian Snitker should have all of his late inning options available as needed in this one. Will Smith, Darren O’Day, and Spencer Strider each threw in yesterday’s defeat, but all of Atlanta’s high-leverage options are well-rested, having not appeared in a game since Wednesday. 

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

If bettors are looking to target an underdog play today, there are few better options than the Padres. San Diego has the better starting pitcher in this matchup, with an offense that is at least competitive to their opponent. The presence of Ronald Acuna Jr. in the lineup could make things more difficult for Sean Maneaea, but this is still a worthwhile risk at plus-money. Take the Friars on the moneyline for the first five innings.

• PICK: Padres ML – F5 @ +122