San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Odds, Pick and Prediction (5/21/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Padres vs. Giants odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Saturday, May 21. Use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 free MLB bet!

Padres vs. Giants Odds

This afternoon, the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants will continue their weekend series at Oracle Park. On Friday, San Diego emerged victorious in an extra-innings thriller by a final score of 8-7. Today, the Padres will hand the ball to Joe Musgrove as they go for their third consecutive victory. The Giants will counter with Carlos Rodon, who will be looking to bounce-back after an atrocious outing against the St. Louis Cardinals in his most recent trip to the hill. Oddsmakers anticipate San Francisco evening-up this series, pricing them as -158 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

San Diego Padres

Joe Musgrove has been outstanding to begin the year, with a 2.20 ERA, 2.54 xERA, and a 2.69 FIP through his first seven turns in the rotation. Though his strikeout numbers have seen a small decline, a career-best 3.4 walk percentage has helped limit traffic on the bases, leading to an elite 0.93 WHIP. His success is largely attributable to an increase in slider usage compared to 2021–a pitch against which opposing hitters own a .140 batting average and a .155 wOBA in 2022. Musgrove has been strong against both right- and left- handed bats, and has also eliminated the stark home-and-away splits that have troubled him in recent seasons. Expect another excellent outing in this one from arguably the Friars’ best starting pitcher.

San Diego will likely need Musgrove to keep the Giants off of the scoreboard for most of this contest to give this group a chance to win. Prior to yesterday’s 8-run outburst, the Padres had scored 3 runs or less nine times in their last 13 contests (excluding extra innings). If there is reason to be optimistic, it is due to the fact that the majority of the recent struggles for this offense have come against right-handed pitching. Facing southpaws in 2022, San Diego ranks 5th in OPS, 6th in ISO, 2nd in walk percentage, and 9th in strikeout percentage. 

Despite playing 10 innings yesterday, San Diego did not obliterate their arm barn. Luis Garcia threw 33 pitches, making him unlikely to be available on Saturday. However, Taylor Rogers was not used, and nobody else that appeared on Saturday tossed more than 24 pitches. 

San Francisco Giants

Prior to surrendering 8 earned runs in 3.2 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball last week, Carlos Rodon had posted a 1.80 ERA and a 1.18 FIP in six starts to begin the campaign. St. Louis is arguably the best offensive attack in the league against left-handed pitching, but the Padres are not far behind. Though it would be unwise to expect Rodon to be chased from this contest in the first five innings again, this is another vulnerable spot for the talented southpaw against a dangerous lineup.

Across the last two weeks, the Giants rank 1st in OPS, 4th in ISO, 1st in walk percentage, and 2nd in strikeout percentage. Yet, San Francisco only ranks 12th in hard-hit percentage, and 13th in barrel percentage during that time period, suggesting that their surface-level stats are likely somewhat inflated–or at least related to their impressive ability to draw base-on-balls. Facing Musgrove, who ranks in the 92nd percentile in walk percentage in 2022, this offense could find it more difficult to push runs across home plate.

Manager Gabe Kapler used five relievers in yesterday’s affair–John Brebbia, Tyler Rogers, Zack Littell, Jose Alvarez, and Camilo Doval. However, none of these arms had thrown in either of the previous two days, and nobody threw more than 21 pitches last night. Everyone should be available as needed in this one, though fatigue is a mild concern, playing a day game following a night game.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

Both of these offenses are elite, at least contextually speaking. San Diego is a top-five attack against left-handed pitching, and San Francisco leads all of baseball in OPS across the last two weeks. There is some concern that Nestor Ceja, a pitcher-friendly umpire, could spoil the fun for the offense in this one if he ends up behind the plate. Still, this total is too low with both bullpens being slightly taxed and being forced to play on short rest after a late-night affair on Saturday. Do not bet the house, but the over has some value here at the current number on the market.

• PICK: Over 6.5 @ -125