Padres vs. Giants Expert Pick And Prediction For Today (5/22/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Padres vs. Giants odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Sunday. Use our PointsBet promo code to get a $2000 in free bets!

Padres vs. Giants Odds, Expert Pick and Prediction

This afternoon, the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants will conclude a three-game set at Oracle Park. The Friars have emerged victorious in each of the first two games in this series, and will be looking for a sweep on Sunday, playing behind MacKenzie Gore. The Giants will be hoping to get back in the win column behind Alex Wood. Oddsmakers anticipate San Francisco salvaging the series finale, pricing them as -142 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

San Diego Padres

MacKenzie Gore owns a 2.17 ERA, 3.21 xERA, and a 2.37 FIP through 29.0 innings of work in his rookie campaign. In five starts, he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer on four occasions, and has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs. In a limited sample size of 102 plate appearances against right-handed batters, Gore has posted a stellar 1.90 FIP, 30.4 strikeout percentage, 4.9 percent walk percentage, and a 1.04 WHIP–primarily using a well-located, mid-90s fastball to neutralize opposing bats.

Left-handed hitters have seen Gore much better so far in 2022, but there are only 16 plate appearances behind the data, so bettors would be wise to not put too much stock in those numbers at this point.

Prior to Friday’s 8-run outburst, the Padres had scored 3 runs or less nine times in their last 13 contests (excluding extra innings). San Diego immediately proved that Friday’s performance was an outlier, scoring only two runs on Saturday. If there is reason to be optimistic, the Friars have been better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching this year. Facing southpaws in 2022, San Diego ranks 7th in OPS, 6th in ISO, 2nd in walk percentage, and 9th in strikeout percentage. 

San Francisco Giants

Alex Wood has struggled to a 4.68 ERA and a 3.69 FIP in his last five turns through the rotation. His struggles have occurred primarily against right-handed hitters, who are batting .324 with an .839 OPS against him so far this season. Wood’s strikeout percentage is 11.9 percent lower against righties compared to lefties, and his 1.67 WHIP is 0.90 points higher than it is against left-handed batters. The struggles seem to be directly related to his sinker, which has been far less effective in 2022 compared to 2021. The veteran southpaw is vulnerable once again this afternoon.

Across the last two weeks, the Giants rank 4th in OPS, 7th in ISO, 2nd in walk percentage, and 1st in strikeout percentage. Yet, San Francisco only could experience difficulty creating run-scoring opportunities on Sunday against Gore, who ranks in the 73rd percentile in barrel percentage, 73rd percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 65th percentile in xERA in 2022.

Manager Gabe Kapler used five relievers in Friday’s extra-inning affair–John Brebbia, Tyler Rogers, Zack Littell, Jose Alvarez, and Camilo Doval. He used another four men on Saturday–Dominic Leone, Jose Alvarez, Mauricio Llovera, and Jarlin Garcia. Fatigue should not be a major concern, considering that none of these pitchers threw more than 21 pitches in their appearance, and none of them have thrown in back-to-back days ahead of first pitch today.

Expert Pick: Padres vs. Giants  

The Giants are an excellent baseball team, but they did not match-up well with the Padres well from a starting pitching perspective this weekend. This matchup disadvantage is likely to continue on Sunday. Gore is the better starting pitcher in this contest, and San Diego is a better lineup against left-handed pitching than San Francisco has been so far this season. Avoid the late-innings by keeping this wager to the first five innings.

• PICK: Padres Moneyline – F5 (+112), Multiple Sportsbooks