2022 PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips: Outrights, Top-10 Picks, and Longshots

Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden is a lead DFS and golf betting analyst for RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds. In this week’s preview, he will breaks his favorite PGA Championship outright bets, top-10 picks, and longshots at Southern Hills Country Club.

Welcome back to the weekly golf betting roundup article! We have our second major of the year with the PGA Championship on deck for us this week, so it should be a fun week. Tiger Woods is going to tee it up, so that always draws in the media coverage and ratings.

Southern Hills Country Club will be the host venue for this event for the first time since 2007. This is a demanding par 70 course that can stretch to over 7,500 yards from the tips. That’s very lengthy for a par 70 layout, and it checks in over 300 yards longer than it did back in 2007. We will not see many eagle looks even on the par fives, as both par fives stretch to 630+ yards.

Don’t expect a birdie fest here. This course is long and demanding, and I will be looking at every aspect of the game. Distance doesn’t seem to be a priority despite the length; it sets up as a second shot golf course. Chipping and scrambling will also be paramount. Almost every green is protected by bunkers and/or water, and I will give bogey avoidance a peek as well. You aren’t going to be able to hide any weak elements of the game at this course, and that worries me with players like Viktor Hovland who often struggle around the greens.

Let’s try to find some winning picks!

Top Outright Bets — AT&T Byron Nelson

Hideki Matsuyama to win (+3300 on PointsBet) – As of right now, it does look like the golfers teeing off on Thursday morning will get the best of the weather. We’re also getting nice odds here with Matsuyama. The only question with Matsuyama is whether or not he is healthy. When healthy, he is capable of contending in every major. Well, he answered those questions, passing with flying colors last week in a T-3 finish at the Byron Nelson that he punctuated with a blistering 62 on Sunday where he gained more than three strokes on approach and four and a half strokes from tee to green. He ranks inside the top 25 on Tour in all the key metrics I am looking at this week, so I am definitely in.

Will Zalatoris to win (+3500 on BetRivers) – I made the mistake of trusting Zalatoris at a birdie fest event last week. That wasn’t my finest moment, but sometimes you have to admit those mistakes. He always tends to do better on difficult courses, and we have already seen him compete in majors. I like the relatively long odds (by his standards), and I am on record that I think he will win a major this season. The all around game is very sharp except for the putter, and just an average putting week will have him in the mix on a course that will frustrate much of this field.

Top-10 Predictions

Max Homa Top 10 Finish (+600 on Bet365) – Homa doesn’t have the best track record in major tournaments, but his game has steadily improved over the last couple of years. He is coming off a win a few weeks ago and is playing with ultimate confidence right now. After his practice round on Monday, he said Southern Hills ranks among the best golf courses he has ever played. These are solid top ten odds given his current form.

Alex Noren Top 10 Finish (+900 on FanDuel) – I have been singing the praises of Noren for quite a while now, and I’m not going to back off following solid T-12 finish in last week’s event. Noren is another golfer that generally profiles better in more difficult scoring conditions. He is one of the best scramblers in this field, and his European Tour experience should suit him nicely on a layout that has something of a links feel. Noren now has four top 12 finishes on Tour since February, and these are fantastic odds on FanDuel for a top ten.

Longshots and Other Bets

Longshots – It will be difficult for a true long shot to win this tournament, but the depth of the field means that we have some really good golfers priced at higher levels than usual. Tony Finau is priced around 75-to-1 on a lot of books. Tyrrell Hatton is 80-to-1 on Bet365. Both have morning tee times, have winning upside, and have the ability to contend on a difficult course.

Mito Pereira over Sam Horsfield head-to-head (-132 on BetRivers) – Our projections model has loved him for quite some time, and the only concern heading into last week was a potential lingering injury that forced him out of the team event in New Orleans last month. He showed no ill effects from that injury last week en route to a top 20 finish in Texas. The statistical numbers are VERY strong for a golfer with his odds, and I don’t mind betting him as a top 20 on his own. In any case, I really like this head-to-head bet against a significantly worse golfer in Horsfield.

Good luck this week everyone! Let’s win some money!