PGA Betting Odds Roundup – Genesis Invitational

PGA betting expert, Justin Van Zuiden, kicks off Riviera week with plenty of golf tips and matchups to target across multiple sportsbooks.

Greetings, ScoresAndOdds readers!

We’re gearing up for the heart of the golf season over the next couple of months, and the timing couldn’t be better with the NFL season now in the rearview mirror.

This will be the first edition of a weekly series that I will write for you here at ScoresAndOdds.

Golf is the sport that I am most passionate about when it comes to both betting and daily fantasy sports, so I am excited to bring you some weekly PGA betting content!

This week brings us the Genesis Invitational at the beautiful Riviera Country Club. 120 of the world’s best golfers will tee it up at Riviera this weekend. Though sponsors have changed, this event has been around for decades.

The course is as tried and tested as any that is used on the PGA Tour, and it is known for one of the most iconic short par fours on Tour. As is the case with many difficult layouts, the top golfers tend to rise to the top of the leaderboard. Experience tends to matter, and first timers often struggle here.

I would be surprised if we see a winner come from the 80-1+ odds range like we saw we Tom Hoge a couple weeks ago. The field is loaded, and that makes it more difficult for completely shocking winners.

STL’s Top Win Market PGA Bets

Collin Morikawa to win (+1800 on most books)

One thing you will notice about this course is that experience matters. Riviera has a learning curve. Therefore, it’s no surprise that we haven’t seen Morikawa pop for a top ten finish in his first two trips here.

He did make the cut in both of his previous starts, though, and there’s room to grow in his third professional trip here. He ranks 11th on Tour in bogey avoidance right now, and his iron play is consistently among the elite on the PGA Tour.

He’s not as long off the tee as some other players I am betting here, but the rest of his game will translate to success on this course. Don’t forget just how good Morikawa is. I’ll play this at any betting odds down to 16-to-1.

Will Zalatoris to win (+2800 on BetMGM)

He couldn’t close the deal two weeks ago at Torrey Pines, but it was yet another solid finish for Zalatoris on a tough course with his playoff lost to Luke List.

Like few young players, he has actually shown a propensity to play well on the more difficult tracks, and I wouldn’t fault anyone for betting him to win a major this year. He’s one of the most talented players on Tour without a win, and it’s just a matter of time before that changes.  He checks all the statistical boxes, and I’ll gladly bet him at anything above 25-to-1 odds.

If you’re looking for other potential targets near the top of the field, give Viktor Hovland (+2500 on DraftKings) or Justin Thomas (+1600 on BetMGM) a peek. I’ll forgive Hovland for a missed cut in Phoenix after a long week of travel, while Thomas has been peeking through with better form of late.

STL’s Top Ten Market Bets

Matthew Fitzpatrick Top Ten Finish (+380 on FanDuel)

We could very well be in the midst of a breakout season for Fitzpatrick. The rising Englishman has put together back to back top ten finishes at Pebble Beach and TPC Scottsdale, and he just puts together consistent round after consistent round.

All eight rounds have come in at 70 or better in those two events. Why couldn’t he do it a third time? His patience and his ability to pepper fairways and greens will serve him very well at Riviera, where he has finished 30th and 5th in his first two appearances. This is a form play, and I like this at almost 4-to-1 odds.

Adam Scott Top Ten Finish (+390 on FanDuel)

Scott has similar odds to Fitzpatrick, and we’ll still make a handsome profit if just one of these two hits. Scott had a woeful final round with the irons last week, but his game was otherwise solid for the first three days.

We’re getting a bit of a betting discount on him after that poor final round in Phoenix, and his ball striking ability should offer him the ability to contend. As usual, it will just come down to the flat stick.

PGA Betting Long Shots

Long Shots

I don’t love targeting long shots at this course, but I’d be tempted to throw some lunch money down on Erik Van Rooyen (90-to-1 on FanDuel) and Aaron Wise (200-to-1 on DraftKings), both of whom make interesting PGA betting longshots.

EVR has been showing fantastic form so far in 2022 and feels disrespected at this number, while Wise is a bomber who should theoretically suit this track despite missing the cut in his three previous trips to Riviera. You could do worse with a speculative bet.

Golf Matchups

Individual matchups are also some of my favorite markets to target, as they tend to be slightly less efficient in the long run.

Matchup – Matthew Fitzpatrick (-120 on DraftKings) over Sam Burns

This is an auto bet. Burns has struggled over his last few tournaments and doesn’t have the steady demeanor that Fitzpatrick has. You all know that I love Fitzpatrick this week from the discussion above, and these odds are too good to pass up. I think Fitzpatrick should be closer to -150 in this matchup on this course.

Matchup – Jon Rahm (-130 on DraftKings) over Patrick Cantlay

At some point, fatigue is going to set in for Cantlay. He has suffered two brutal Sunday defeats in his last two starts, and this course demands full mental attention. Rahm is an obvious favorite over pretty much anyone right now, but this is more of a Cantlay fade than it is a Rahm endorsement.

More PGA Betting Picks

Four ball winner – Collin Morikawa (+360 on BetRivers) over Cameron Smith, Xander Schauffele, and Hideki Matsuyama

Since Morikawa is my favorite pick to win, this one comes naturally. I don’t love Smith on this course, and I’ll take Morikawa’s iron play over the others.

Smith has the shortest odds of this group of four, and that gives all the others value. I’ll side with Morikawa, but really you could side with betting anyone other than Smith from this group. Schauffele and Matsuyama both sit at +350 or higher odds, as well.

Good luck this week everyone! Let’s win some money!