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Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks, Props & Outrights: The CJ Cup

Timothy Buell Tue 10/18 7:04am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for every PGA event. 

For the purpose of this column, I will be focusing mostly on H2H matchups, outright tournament winners, and live bets! Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook. 

Congratulations to Keegan Bradley, who achieved his first win in four years. I can’t lie, I was rooting for Rickie Fowler quite a bit to win! We had two outright picks finish in the top 10, but we never really had a chance to cash an outright ticket. 

Matthew NeSmith did have a great week for us. We won our full unit head-to-head play, while he also cashed our top-20 play. This allowed us to earn a small profit on the week. Now, the Tour heads to South Carolina for this year’s CJ Cup.    

The CJ Cup: Course Information

The CJ Cup will be played at the Congaree Golf Club in Ridgeland, South Carolina. This is the first time the CJ Cup will be played at this event and only the second time this course has hosted a PGA Tour event (2021 Palmetto Championship).

Garrick Higgo won the Palmetto at 11-under par. This is a much stronger field, so I expect the winning score to approach 15-under par.

We have seen a few weak-field events during the fall swing. This week will break that trend, with 15 of the world’s top 20 players entering the field. Notables include Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.

This event is similar to last week, where there will be 78 players in the field and no cut. As I pointed out last week, no-cut events favor players with a better overall skill set. One bad round doesn’t send you home for the weekend and allows you time to grind back a better finish.  

Tom Fazio designed this course in 2017.  The course should play around 7,650 yards and is Par 71. That, however, is the maximum length. The final round of the Palmetto Championship was played at only 7,300. It is impossible to know exactly where they will put the tee markers.

This is a bermudagrass course. There are three par-5’s that are all very reachable and 11 par- 4’s – seven which are under 470 yards. Two of the par-4’s are drivable. Fazio designed this course to be firm and fast and similar to Australian belt courses. I expect that will be the case this week. Wide undulating fairways with tight approaches seem to be the game plan this week.

Water comes into play on 10 holes total and the average green size is 6,150 square feet. There is no rough on this golf course. If a player misses the fairway, it goes into a sandy waste area. Hitting out of those areas can be a difficult endeavor if you draw a bad lie.  I am going to weigh off-the-tee game more than any other statistic this week. This course should play a little more difficult than an average PGA course. That will certainly be the case if the conditions are as firm and fast as advertised. 

Free PGA Betting Picks: The CJ Cup

Scottie Scheffler (14-1, FanDuel)

Normally, I don’t like to go this high on the betting board, but there is just so much win equity at the top I don’t think I can completely avoid it on my betting card.

This field is incredibly stacked and I really feel like we will need at least one of these elite golfers. Congaree Golf Club should play firm, fast and cater to great overall drivers of the ball.

On top of that, this is another short-field, no-cut event. The cream usually rises to the top in events like this. Scheffler has twice the odds as McIlroy, while also owning better odds than Jon Rahm. This leads me to believe there is value on Scheffler at this price. Scheffler is the number-one golfer in the world and will be looking to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick (24-1, FanDuel)

We simply don’t have much data on this golf course, so I will continue to get my exposure in all markets to great overall golfers.  Fitzpatrick has the sound driving game, great short game, and iron play to be a fit anywhere. Accuracy will play a factor on this course and I have great faith in him being one of the most accurate drivers of the ball this week.

Don’t forget, Fitzpatrick won last year’s U.S. Open, he clearly has the ability to win against a stacked field. Given some of the international influence with the design of the course, I like the idea of having a player from across the pond on my card.  

Collin Morikawa (35-1, Caesars)

There are always opportunities for golfers who are accurate off the tee and world-class iron players. The plurality of shots should be from around 150-175 yards and there is no other golfer in the field who is better with their long irons than Morikawa. He certainly struggled at certain points last year, but keep in mind, he finished fifth at The Masters and the U.S. Open.  His biggest flaw is with the putter. Morikawa has never figured out any consistency with the flat stick. If he can gain even a stroke with the putter, we should see him creeping up the leaderboard by Sunday afternoon. 

Head to Head Matchup Picks

Collin Morikawa over Sam Burns (-110)

I have complete respect for both of these golfers and certainly don’t have a ton of negative things to say about Burns. I just really believe this isn’t the best course fit for him. If you miss the fairway here, it can lead to some really big numbers. Even if I think Burns makes several birdies through four rounds, I believe he will inevitably land on a couple of double bogey (or worse) holes.  Morikawa should be able to take advantage of Burns’s volatility.  

Official PGA Betting Card

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