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Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks, Props & Outrights: ZOZO Championship

Timothy Buell Tue 10/11 7:28am PT
Viktor Hovland makes this week's ZOO Championship betting picks.
Image Credit: Imagn

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for every PGA event. 

For the purpose of this column, I will be focusing mostly on H2H matchups, outright tournament winners, and live bets! Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook. 

Congratulations to Tom Kim, with an impressive win last week, as he overtook Patrick Cantlay on the last hole to win his second PGA Tour title. We were able to cash the J.T. Poston top-20 ticket to at least get a little bit of a rebate, but unfortunately, we were never really in the running to hit an outright ticket.  

2022 ZOZO Championship 

This week, the PGA Tour heads to Japan, where the world’s best will tackle Accorida Golf Narashino Country Club. The course is a par 70, which measures 7,079 yards. 

One unique little tidbit about this course is that there are five par 3s and three par 5s. The greens are Bentgrass and the fairways are Zoyzia. We only have two years of data to go by – 2019 and 2021 were the only years that this tournament was played. The 2020 tourney was played in the United States. Hideki Matsuyama won in 2021, while Tiger Woods won in 2019.

Despite the lack of data, we do know that this course is narrow in some places and it’s lined with many trees. There is very little water on this course, but the greens are protected by bunkers on just about every green. The par 4’s range in length between 363-500 yards. All of the par 3’s are under 200 yards.  This course can be difficult and seems to be a premium on overall driving and solid iron play. It makes sense that Hideki and Tiger have won here. 

This is a short-field, no-cut event.  There are 78 total players, however, there are around a dozen players that aren’t regular members of the PGA Tour, but are members of various tours in Asia. This is important when considering your top-20 and head-to-head picks this week. Since there are four rounds for everyone, it should help more talented players. Sometimes all it takes is one bad round for your putter or your irons to miss the cut. Not this week, you will get those additional two rounds, and that will favor better overall players. 

Free PGA Betting Picks: ZOZO Championship

Viktor Hovland (21-1, FanDuel)

If I am looking at excellent drivers of the golf ball, to go along with exceptional iron play, Hovland is the play for me this week.  Hovland is the third-highest-ranked player in this field, but has the eighth-best odds. He will be making his 2022-23 season debut after playing the last two weeks in Europe, where he finished 34th at the Italian Open and 5th at the BMW PGA Championship.

Hovland is a volatile golfer that can get lost on the greens. Getting four rounds from him this week will be crucial. He should be able to get his feel down by Sunday.  Hovland has gained strokes with his putter in six-straight events and 12 of his last 13 total.  The combination of his world-class driver and iron play, to go along with his steady putter, should put him in the running when the final round starts. 

Tyrell Hatton (27-1, FanDuel)

I don’t think I have ever placed a wager on Tyrell Hatton in the outright market, that will change this week. Hatton has his best success on shorter tree-lined courses and that is exactly what we get this week. He is coming off of back-to-back top-10s on the DP World Tour. We know Hatton is a streaky golfer who succeeds on certain types of layouts. This course should be one of them. If he can avoid some of his psychological issues, he should be able to contend.  

Matthew NeSmith (70-1, DraftKings)

I was rooting pretty hard against him last week since I had Mark Hubbard against him in my head-to-head wager. I was surprised at how well NeSmith played, as he ended up finishing T2 last week.  That was his second-straight top-10 finish. Given the weakness of this field, I think there is slight value in this number.

NeSmith has been red hot with his irons and has been very solid off the tee. He is obviously not this good with his irons, but that is baked into his betting odds.  I am willing to take a shot at the hot hand and chase another ceiling performance from him this week.  

PGA Head-to-Head Matchup PIck

Matthew NeSmith over J.J. Spaun (-110)

NeSmith is one of my picks to win, and as I alluded to above, I really like his recent form. Ever since J.J. Spaun won the Valero Texas Open toward the end of last summer; he has been stuck in neutral – to say the least.

His approach game has been truly awful. Spaun withdrew from the Charles Schwab Challenge last season due to a back injury and never seemed to regain form after that. This matchup seems to be two players heading in different directions heading into this tournament. 

Official ZOZO Championship Betting Card

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