Philadelphia Phillies Predictions: Value On Zack Wheeler’s Cy Young Odds

Find out why MLB futures bettors might find value on Zack Wheeler’s Cy Young ahead of Opening Day, and use our BetMGM sign-up offer to claim a $1000 free bet!

Philadelphia Phillies Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 76.5 Wins (+100)
• Best Regular Season Record: +12000
• Division Winner: +1600
• To Make the Playoffs: +260
• National League Winner: +4000
• World Series Champion: +8000

Pitching Preview

Philadelphia Phillies 2022 Starting Rotation

Phillies Cy Young Odds

Zack Wheeler (+2000)

Coming off of a second-place finish in the National League Cy Young voting in 2021, it is somewhat surprising to see Zack Wheeler at such long odds to win the award in 2022. Since joining the Philadelphia Phillies, Wheeler owns a 2.82 ERA and a 2.75 FIP across 284.1 innings of work. He has proven that he can be incredibly effective in a variety of different ways. Wheeler finished with a 2.92 ERA and a 3.22 FIP in 2020, despite striking-out only 18.4 percent of opposing hitters. In 2021, Wheeler cut-back on his sinker usage in favor of his slider, elevating his punch-out rate to 29.1 percent, which ranked in the 84th percentile in baseball. He also ended the year ranked in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity and the 94th percentile in xwOBA while exhibiting elite command and spin rates–even post-sticky substance ban. All four of his top offerings last summer held opposing batters to a .256 wOBA or worse. Wheeler might not be a big personality, but there are few pitchers more dominant than the Phillies’ ace.  

Wheeler’s NL Cy Young odds are as short as +1200 at some Pennsylvania sportsbooks but you can find +2000 on Caesars.

Aaron Nola (+2000)

Aaron Nola finished last season with a dreadful 4.63 ERA, but it was not his fault. His xERA and his FIP were both 3.37. He ranked in the 86th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 92nd percentile in walk-rate. Yet, a poor defense behind him was responsible, in part, for a horribly low 66.8 left-on-base percentage. It stands to reason that Nola could be even better if he would throw his changeup more often, considering that it has been arguably his best pitch in two of the last three seasons. Still, Nola at his worst is 15 percent better than the league average hurler. When is at his best, the Phillies have a top-of-the-rotation capable of competing in any postseason series–if they can get there.

Ranger Suarez (+20000)

Ranger Suarez entered last season with a career 4.66 ERA and a 4.59 FIP. He had never struck-out more than 20.5 percent of opposing batters in a campaign, and only once had finished the year with a FIP better than league average. Then, Philadelphia thought of trying him as a starter. The results were incredulous–a 1.51 ERA and a 2.35 FIP across his final 12 turns in the rotation. In that span, he punched-out 25.0 percent of hitters and kept his walk-rate at 7.3 percent. Though an 86.6 percent strand-rate in this time period suggests that some regression is in order, Suarez has seemingly established himself as a reliable member of this starting staff with plenty of upside and a reasonably safe floor.

Zach Eflin (+15000)

Knee surgery put an early end to what was shaping up to be an excellent season for the former first round draft pick. Zach Eflin ranked in the 71st percentile in average exit velocity and the 61st percentile in xwOBA while showcasing elite command of the strike-zone. In his 18 starts, he never walked more than two batters, despite completing at least six innings on 14 occasions. Since making his sinker his primary offering in 2020, Eflin owns a 4.10 ERA and a 3.58 FIP. Eflin may be able to take his career to a new level if he works his changeup into his arsenal on a more frequent basis, considering that opposing batters posted a putrid .115 wOBA against it in 2021. At his worst, he is an excellent option to have at the backend of a rotation. Yet, it is hard to shake the feeling that there is more to be unlocked from the still young 28 year old.

Kyle Gibson (+15000)

From 2016 to 2020, Kyle Gibson delivered a 4.65 ERA and a 4.55 FIP across 729.1 innings. He was unsurprisingly shelled on Opening Day at Kauffman Stadium, but then proceeded to post a 1.51 ERA and a 3.27 FIP across his next 12 starts. Unfortunately, Gibson could not sustain the magic following a trade to the City of Brotherly Love. From August 1st to the end of the regular season, Gibson had a 5.09 ERA and a 4.04 FIP. As a fifth-option, Gibson is good enough. Just do not allow oneself to think he will be able to replicate the success he experienced from the early part of 2020 anytime in the near future.

Phillies Bullpen Preview

In 2021, the Phillies bullpen ranked 27th in FIP (4.61), 16th in xFIP (4.27), 15th in strikeout percentage (23.8%), 17th in walk-rate (10.1%), and 24th in WHIP (1.39). 

Reports from Spring Training have described Corey Knebel’s performances in an extremely favorable tone. Knebel threw only 25.2 innings in 2021, but his fastball velocity ranked in the 88th percentile and his spin rates remained elite. The result was a 2.45 ERA, 2.90 xERA, and a 2.90 FIP in a limited sample size. Opposing struggled mightily to a .266 wOBA against his fastball and a .181 wOBA against his curveball in 2021–numbers that were almost identical to 2017, a year in which Knebel finished with a 1.78 ERA, 2.61 xERA, and a 2.53 FIP. Injury risk will be tied to any projection surrounding Knebel for the rest of his career, but it is clear that there is still plenty of talent in his right arm when he is healthy.

Brad Hand saved 103 games across four seasons from 2017 to 2020 with the San Diego Padres and the Cleveland Guardians. Hand was similarly productive during the first half of 2021, with a 2.43 ERA and a 3.93 FIP. However, the wheels came off after the All-Star break, during which he floundered to a 5.86 ERA and a 5.45 FIP. Hand’s slider was his only demonstrably quality pitch last season. It remains to be seen whether or not that will be good enough to do his job well in Philadelphia.

Jeurys Familia saved 94 games for the New York Mets in two seasons from 2015 to 2016. Since that point, he owns a 4.15 ERA and a 3.97 FIP across 242.2 innings of work. Most notably, his command is to blame. In 2021, his 12.3 percent walk-rate ranked in the 23rd percentile in baseball. He still does a decent job limiting hard-contact and striking-out batters, but too much of his 1.45 WHIP across the last five seasons has been his own fault. It is unlikely that 2022 will be the year that Familia rediscovers the accuracy that he lost over a half-decade ago.

As a rookie, Seranthony Dominguez was electric, striking-out 32.0 percent of opposing hitters en route to a sensational 2.95 ERA, 2.70 xERA, and a 2.85 FIP. He was less good in 2019 before needing Tommy John surgery. In 1.0 inning of work in 2021, he totaled one strikeout in a scoreless frame, but his velocity was nearly three miles-per-hour lower than it was in 2018. If healthy, he is likely the second best reliever in this unit. Yet, we have little idea what to expect from a player with a limited MLB resume coming off of a major injury.

Per Baseball Prospectus, Bailey Falter graded as having the best extension to the plate of any pitcher in baseball in 2021. The extension helps low-90s heat appear closer to mid-90s from the hitter’s view. Still, he posted a 5.61 ERA, 3.60 ERA, and a 3.79 FIP in 33.2 innings last summer. He is unlikely to see very many high-leverage opportunities in 2022 unless something changes.

Nick Nelson posted a 4.79 ERA, 6.09 xERA, and a 5.56 FIP in his MLB debut with the New York Yankees in 2020. Last year, he was even worse, with an 8.79 ERA, 5.77 xERA, and a 4.08 FIP. The fact that he is likely to be on the Opening Day roster says all there needs to be said about the quality of this unit.

In his first taste of big-league action, Cristopher Sanchez had a 4.97 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and a 3.80 FIP across 12.2 innings. A .395 BABIP, and other peripherals, suggests that Sanchez was much better than his surface-level stats indicate. In the limited sample size, Sanchez induced a 54.2 percent swing-and-miss rate on his changeup, but he threw the offering only 21.3 percent of the time. Formerly, he has been a sinker-baller trying to get ground-balls. His future at the MLB level could depend on his willingness to reinvent himself slightly.

James Norwood has excellent velocity, but less than excellent command. He owns a career 18.5 strikeout percentage against a ghastly 13.1 percent walk-rate. 

Sam Coonrod and Jose Alvarado are both unlikely to be available on Opening Day, with Coonrod nursing a sore shoulder and Alvarado dealing with a stiff neck. Alvarado has always been borderline unhittable, but his 1st percentile walk-rate makes him undeniably untrustworthy in high-leverage situations. Coonrod and Alvarado returning to the field would improve this unit, but neither is going to be a savior waiting in the wings.