Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds, Pick and Prediction

MLB expert Nick Galaida breaks down Phillies vs. New Mets odds, accompanied by a free pick and prediction for today — Sunday, May 1. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 risk-free bet.

Phillies vs. Mets Odds

Tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will conclude a three-game set at Citi Field. The Mets no-hit the Phillies in a 3-0 victory on Friday night, but the Phillies rebounded for a 4-1 win on Saturday. In the rubber match, Philadelphia will send Zach Eflin to the hill, who will be opposed by Max Scherzer. Oddsmakers anticipate New York securing a series victory, pricing them as -180 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies

Zach Eflin has experienced a strong start to the year, with a 3.20 ERA, 2.49 xERA, and a 2.95 FIP through four turns in the rotation. Though his strikeout numbers are down significantly, he has done a masterful job avoiding hard-contact–ranking in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, 81st percentile in hard-hit percentage, and the 80th percentile in xwOBA. Excellent command has helped him keep traffic off of the basepaths as well, contributing to his career-best 1.12 WHIP. Notably, Eflin has almost completely abandoned his slider in 2022–a welcome sign considering that it was, by far, his worst secondary offering in 2021. The early returns from increasing his fastball and curveball usage have been promising as well.  If Eflin can continue to avoid the middle-third of the plate this evening, he should have another strong outing.

Against right-handed pitching this year, the Phillies rank 11th in OPS, 15th in ISO, 12th in walk-rate, and 9th in strikeout percentage. Nick Castellanos enters play as the only regular starter for the Phillies with higher than a .791 OPS against righties in 2022. Facing arguably the best right-handed pitcher of this generation on the mound tonight is not likely to help this group improve on these mediocre numbers.

The Philadelphia arm barn is not overused at the moment, but there are slight concerns in the late-innings if Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia, or James Norwood find their way into the ballgame tonight after each threw 22 pitches or more in yesterday’s victory. Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez also threw last night. Nonetheless, everyone in this unit should be available this evening.

New York Mets

Thus far in 2022, Max Scherzer ranks in the 96th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 89th percentile in xwOBA, 90th percentile in strikeout percentage, 75th percentile in whiff percentage, and the 82nd percentile in chase rate. Through four turns in the rotation, he owns a 1.80 ERA, 2.01 xERA, and a 2.01 FIP. However, he has been far more dominant against right-handed batters than left-handed batters. Facing righties, he has a 0.61 FIP, 39.0 strikeout percentage, and a 4.9 percent walk-rate. Against lefties, he has a slightly more mortal 3.05 FIP, 32.1 strikeout percentage, and an 11.3 percent walk-rate. When Scherzer faced the Phillies in April, he allowed only one earned run across five frames, but he labored through innings, and allowed eight baserunners overall. This is a good, but not a great matchup for him.

Facing right-handed pitching this year, the Mets rank 3rd in OPS, 17th in ISO, 8th in walk-rate, and 1st in strikeout percentage. The most significant advantage that the Mets could use to their advantage in this matchup is their vast array of left-handed bats. In his career, Eflin has a 3.56 FIP against righties, but a dreadful 5.43 FIP against lefties. Eflin has improved upon that number somewhat in recent years, but it still remains an exploitable weakness.

None of the New York relievers have thrown in back-to-back days entering Sunday’s action. Adam Ottavino tossed 28 pitches yesterday, which puts his availability in question for tonight. However, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, and Drew Smith are rested and available to lockdown the late innings in this matchup.

MLB Betting Pick Today

Both managers have the ability to stack left-handed bats in the order tonight to create matchup advantages for their offenses. However, advantageous matchups only do so much when facing a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber. Eflin is likely to have far more difficulty in this contest, assuming he sees at least six lefties in the lineup this evening. The Mets are favored for good reason in this one. Take them on the run line to close out the week.

Check out ScoresAndOdds premium for an additional play from @DelphiCommish on this game.

• PICK: Mets (-1.5) @ +120