Pittsburgh Pirates Futures Odds and 2022 Pitching Predictions

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida previews the Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching staff and 2022 futures odds. Make sure to claim a $1000 risk-free bet with our BetMGM sign-up bonus.

Pittsburgh Pirates Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 64.5 Wins (-106)
• Best Regular Season Record: +100000
• Division Winner: +7500
• To Make the Playoffs: +1800
• National League Winner: +22000
• World Series Champion: +50000

Mitch Keller (+30000 to Win Cy Young)

In 2021, Mitch Keller was one of the least effective starting pitchers in all of baseball–posting a 6.17 ERA, 5.73 xERA, and a 4.30 FIP. He finished the year ranked in the 3rd percentile in average exit velocity, 8th percentile in xwOBA, 8th percentile in xERA, 22nd percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 22nd percentile in walk-rate. Opposing hitters had a .457 wOBA against his curveball, .431 wOBA against his changeup, .385 wOBA against his fastball, and a .322 wOBA against his slider. Command issues, lack of swing-and-miss stuff, and an inability to generate weak contact on a consistent basis make it likely that Keller will struggle again in 2022. There are no pitch usage overhauls that make sense when none of the offerings available are better than league average. The former second round pick is still only 26 years old, but the backend of the rotation appears to be his most likely career outcome at this point. There’s not a lot to like here, or anywhere else on the staff, in terms of MLB futures.

Jose Quintana (+15000)

From 2013 to 2017, Jose Quintana was one of the most reliable starting pitchers in baseball, with a 3.50 ERA and a 3.41 FIP spanning 1,003.1 innings of work. Since that point, Quintana’s skills have eroded rapidly. He regressed to a 4.03 ERA and a 4.43 FIP in 2018, but became nearly unusable in 2021, with a 6.43 ERA, 5.09 xERA, and a 4.66 FIP. Last summer, Quintana ranked in the 12th percentile in average exit velocity, 20th percentile in xwOBA, 20th percentile in xERA, and the 13th percentile in walk-rate. Poor command, unimpressive velocity, and weak spin rates combined to form one of the worst pitchers in baseball. At 33 years old and four years removed from his prime, it takes a considerable amount of mental gymnastics to persuasively argue that Quintana will be effective in 2022.

JT Brubaker

Through his first 171.2 innings of work at the big-league level, JT Brubaker owns a 5.24 ERA and a 4.86 FIP. The second half of 2022 was even worse, with a 7.52 ERA and a 6.63 FIP across his final 11 turns through the rotation. Yet, Brubaker is probably not as bad as he was down the stretch last summer. During his tailspin, he suffered a 26.6 percent home run to fly ball ratio, which was far worse than league average. A metric largely determined by luck, Brubaker should see significant positive regression in that department in 2022. If he can manage to sustain his strong command, Bruabker could perform much closer to mediocre than terrible this season.

Wil Crowe

A former second round draft pick, Wil Crowe’s 2021 was not dissimilar to Keller’s. Crowe posted a 5.48 ERA, 5.30 xERA, and a 5.67 FIP across 116.2 innings in 2021. Crowe was slightly better than his teammate at limiting hard contact, but he still ranked in only the 16th percentile in xwOBA, 16th percentile in xERA, 32nd percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 19th percentile in walk rate. Heading into 2022, there is very little to be optimistic about regarding Crowe, who was never overly impressive in the minors, and was significantly overmatched in his first full season of MLB action.

Zach Thompson

Zach Thompson appears to be the only semi-reliable member of this rotation as of this writing. In 2021, Thompson posted a 3.24 ERA, 3.71 xERA, and a 3.69 FIP across 75.0 innings of work with the Miami Marlins. In his first 13 starts last summer, Thompson had a 3.16 ERA and a 3.90 FIP before being moved to the bullpen, where he had a 3.65 ERA and a 2.60 FIP. Thompson finished the year in the 76th percentile in average exit velocity, 70th percentile in xwOBA, and the 70th percentile in xERA. Worse than league average command and strikeout numbers limit his ceiling, but Thompson is likely to be effective more times than not in 2022.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Pirates bullpen ranked 23rd in FIP (4.48), 25th in xFIP (4.67), 21st in strikeout percentage (22.9%), 26th in walk-rate (11.0%), and 22nd in WHIP (1.39).