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2022 Raiders Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Sat 9/10 5:54am PT

Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders had to deal with the resignation of Jon Gruden mid-season, in addition to the tragic accident involving Henry Ruggs. Still, they managed to earn a playoff position thanks to a series of fortunate events during the final month of the regular season.

During the offseason, the front office added Davante Adams, who is widely regarded as one of the most talented receivers in football. They also extended Derek Carr with a three-year, $121.5 million contract, ensuring that the tandem will be together in Sin City for the foreseeable future.

Understandably, there is an abundance of excitement surrounding this group heading into 2022. Let’s take a look at this roster unit-by-unit to see if they are capable of making it back to the postseason in a crowded AFC.

Quarterback

Depth Chart: Derek Carr, Nick Mullens, Jarrett Stidham, Chase Garbers

Last season, Derek Carr finished fifth in the NFL in passing yards, despite Henry Ruggs III and Darren Waller playing only a combined 18 games. Carr was especially impressive early in the season before Ruggs’ accident. During the first seven weeks of the season, Carr posted a 12-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but struggled to an 11-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the remainder of the year.

The addition of Davante Adams to the mix should enable Carr to perform closer to his early-season-self this fall rather than his latter-season-self. Adams’ presence could also help aid the quick passing game for Las Vegas – an important facet of the offense considering Carr’s struggles when under pressure. There is a lot of uncertainty for this offense, with a new head coach and new pieces at impactful skill positions, but Carr is positioned to have the best year of his career if everything goes smoothly. A poor offensive line is the primary concern. 

Running Back

Depth Chart: Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, Zamir White, Brandon Bolden

In 2021, Josh Jacobs led the Las Vegas backfield with 872 yards on the ground, but took 217 attempts to get to that number. His 4.0 yards-per-carry ranked only 36th in the NFL. It was the second consecutive campaign averaging 4.0 yards-per-carry or less, which could be part of the reason that the Raiders opted to draft Zamir White in the fourth round this past summer.

Coming out of Georgia, White was one of the better running back prospects in this year’s draft class. He ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at the combine, and was stopped for a loss on a class-low 9 percent of his carries in 2021, per ESPN. Still, White is unlikely to ever be every-down back in the NFL, due to his lack of pass-catching ability, in addition to the fact that he has torn both of his ACLs. 

Overall, this group promises to have below league average production again in 2022, running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. 

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Demarcus Robinson, Darren Waller

Davante Adams was the big wide receiver catch of the offseason, and will undoubtedly be a boon for the Las Vegas passing attack. Adams enters 2022 fresh off of back-to-back seasons with at least 115 receptions, 1,374 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns. Adams has secured double-digit touchdowns in every year since 2016 in which he has played at least 13 games, making him one of the most reliable pass-catchers in the league. On top of being a bonafide threat in the red zone, Adams should also help the Raiders improve significantly on their 22nd ranked third-down conversion percentage from last season. 

Yet, unlike in Green Bay, Adams will have other capable pass-catchers around him. Hunter Renfrow caught 103 passes in 2021 from Derek Carr, eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his three-year career. Renfrow is unlikely to replicate his numbers from last fall, but he still promises to be one of the better options in the slot in 2022. 

Darren Waller has been dealing with a hamstring issue throughout most of training camp, but it would be surprising to see him miss any time once the regular season begins. Waller had 90-plus catches and over 1,000 receiving yards in both 2019 and 2020, and was well on his way to another sensational year in 2021, but was limited to only 11 games – finishing with 55 catches and 665 receiving yards. 

This is one of the most talented groups of pass-catchers in the NFL. Expect plenty of offense through the air from this group this fall.         

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Kolton Miller, Denzelle Good, Andre James, Jermaine Eluemunor, Alex Leatherwood

Kolton Miller is elite at left tackle, but that is about where the positives end for this Las Vegas offensive line. John Simpson has been borderline unplayable since entering the league as a fourth round pick in 2020 out of Clemson. Andre James has grown into a respectable pass-blocker, but offers very little value in the run game. Lester Cotton Sr. played only five snaps in 2021, but appears likely to receive the majority of the playing time at left guard this fall. He went undrafted in 2019 after playing for Alabama in college. Jermaine Eluemunor has been serviceable in pass protection each of the last three seasons, but far from elite. Per Pro Football Focus, Eluemunor has consistently graded as one of the worst run-blockers in the NFL during his first five years in the league. Overall, this unit looks bleak in 2022.

Base 4-3 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Maxx Crosby, Johnathan Hankins, Bilal Nichols, Chandler Jones

Maxx Crosby was a force to be reckoned with in 2021, compiling eight sacks and 13 tackles-for-loss. It was his third consecutive season with at least seven sacks, but most notably – he improved tremendously as a run defender last fall. He will be a strong contributor for this group again in 2022. However, similar to the offensive line, the defensive line has one elite talent and then not much else to be excited about.

Jonathan Hankins was, by nearly every metric, one of the worst interior defensive lineman in the league last year, and has not been better than league average since 2017. Bilal Nichols has been wildly inconsistent since entering the league in 2018. Only once in four years in the league has he totaled more than three sacks.  

Chandler Jones was a marquee addition during free agency, inking a three-year $51 million deal. Jones was excellent as a pass-rusher in 2021, accumulating 10.5 sacks in only 15 games. Yet, he has become a liability as a run defender in recent seasons, making him an incomplete player on the edge for this unit.

The Raiders are likely to improve upon their 23rd place ranking in sacks per pass attempt from last year, but stopping the run could prove to be a tall task.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Denzel Perryman, Jayon Brown, Divine Deablo

There are few linebacker corps in the NFL worse than the Raiders. Denzel Perryman had an impressive rookie campaign in 2015, but has been mostly ineffective across the last six seasons. Jayon Brown was one of the best linebackers in the league in 2018, but his performance has rapidly deteriorated in each subsequent year, culminating with a 52nd place ranking among 86 linebackers in 2021, per Pro Football Focus. Divine Deablo was a strong run defender as a rookie, but struggled mightily in coverage. A third-round pick entering his sophomore campaign, there is still potential for better seasons ahead for Deablo. Still, even an expected ascension to stardom will not be enough to make this a strong unit in 2022.

Secondary

Depth Chart: Rock Ya-Sin, Johnathan Abram, Tre’von Moehrig, Anthony Averett

 The Raiders had one of the better secondary units in football last fall, ranking 6th in pass yards allowed per play, according to NFL GSIS. However, the loss of Casey Hayward Jr. in free agency could be a big blow to this group. Per Pro Football Focus, Hayward allowed only 388 yards in 17 games in 2021. His replacement, Anthony Averett graded as one of the worst cornerbacks in the entire league, playing over 700 snaps for the Baltimore Ravens. Even an elite season from Rock Ya-Sin is unlikely to do much to slow down opposing passing attacks.

Jonathan Abram was a first round draft pick in 2019, but nothing about his first three years as a professional indicates that he has been worth the investment. It is possible that he is simply playing out of position, but as long as he remains at safety – he is going to be a liability. Trevon Moehrig played well as a rookie out of TCU, but is still far from a game-changing presence for this unit. He will need to improve dramatically in the run game if he wants to be known as one of the better safeties in the NFL.

2022 Outlook

In 2021, the Raiders were only the fourth team in NFL history to make the postseason with a point differential of -65 or worse. A disappointing 6-7 beginning to the year turned for the better when they beat a beleaguered Cleveland Browns Nick Mullens led roster on a last second field goal in Week 15. In Week 16, they beat Drew Lock by only four points after trailing by six points in the second half. In Week 17, despite trailing entering the fourth quarter, they beat the Indianapolis Colts on a week in which Wentz did not practice for COVID-related reasons. In Week 18, they emerged victorious in an overtime back-and-forth affair against the Los Angeles Chargers, in a game that the Chargers seemingly did not want to win. All of this is to say that Las Vegas was extremely lucky to win 10 games last season. In 2022, they will be forced to confront the many holes on this roster, and they are unlikely to benefit from COVID-related absences as teams and communities learn to effectively navigate the ongoing pandemic. 

However, the Raiders were also a completely different team with Ruggs and Waller on the field compared to when they were off of the field. The addition of Adams and a healthy Waller could help this group flirt with a winning season.

Nevertheless, there are too many holes in this defense, and too many talented teams in the AFC West for bettors to bet on Las Vegas to win nine games. Their ceiling is likely 10 wins, with their floor being considerably lower than that. Take the under in this spot at plus-money.

PICK: Las Vegas Raiders u8.5 wins (+110)

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