Raptors vs. Warriors: NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions (1/27/23)
Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida gives his best NBA pick for today’s Raptors vs. Warriors game — Friday, Jan. 27, 2023.
Raptors vs. Warriors Odds
- Raptors: +5
- Warriors: -5
- Over/Under: 235
- Date: Friday, Jan. 27
- Time: 10:00 p.m.
- TV: NBATV
Friday’s NBA action will conclude with a matchup between the Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center.
Entering play, Toronto (22-27) is a half-game behind the Washington Wizards for the final play-in position in the Eastern Conference. Golden State (24-24) currently owns the ninth-best record in the Western Conference. Tonight, oddsmakers are expecting a Warriors victory, pricing Golden State as a 5-point home favorite on the spread.
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Toronto Raptors Betting Preview
- Film session paying off
Per Raptors beat reporter Josh Lewenberg, prior to leaving for their west coast road trip, the Raptors held a long film session, where they watched clips of their defense from last year, with a focus on effort plays.
Following two days of rest after a victory against the New York Knicks, Toronto started their road trip on a high note, defeating the Sacramento Kings 113-95.
In the win, the Raptors out-rebounded the Kings 41-34 and forced 19 turnovers. Still, it remains to be seen how long the effects of the film session will last – especially against tougher competition on the road.
- Struggles on the road
Even after defeating the Kings earlier this week, the Raptors remain one of the NBA’s worst road teams according to nearly every metric. In 22 games outside of Canada, Toronto is 7-15 and ranks 13th out of 30 teams in Net Rating.
One of their more problematic issues has been an inability to defend the perimeter, ranking 15th in opponent three-point attempts and 19th in opponent three-point percentage away from home.
Facing a Golden State team that shoots more shots from beyond the arc than any team in basketball, this is likely to be a difficult test for Toronto’s defense.
Golden State Warriors Betting Preview
- Wiggins listed as questionable
Ahead of tip-off, Andrew Wiggins is listed as questionable, with a non-covid illness. Per Cleaning the Glass, Golden State ranks in the 67th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 81st percentile in defensive efficiency with Wiggins on the floor this season, compared to the 47th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 34th percentile in defensive efficiency when he is on the sidelines.
- Who will step up if Wiggins doesn’t play?
Per CourtIQ, Jordan Poole (+1.9%) and Klay Thompson (+1.2%) see the largest increase in usage this season when Wiggins is off of the floor.
In these situations, Poole is averaging 26.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per 36 minutes of action. Thompson is averaging 24.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per 36 minutes.
According to props.cash, Thompson has scored at least 24 points in each of the last six games he has played with Wiggins out of the lineup.
Raptors vs. Warriors – Picks & Prediction
Although Golden State has not been as dominant as past years in their home building, they are still a far superior team in this matchup, and they present a difficult matchup for the Raptors on the perimeter. Regardless of whether or not Andrew Wiggins is in the lineup this evening, Golden State is the side that bettors want to be on in this spot.
There is the possibility that this line could become more favorable early this evening if Wiggins is ruled out. However, bettors should take advantage of this digestible spread this afternoon and not get greedy.
- PICK: Warriors -5 (-105, DraftKings)
