Rays vs. Twins: Jeffrey Springs Is Here To Stay (6/12/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Rays vs Twins odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Sunday.

Free MLB Expert Pick and Prediction for Sunday

On Sunday afternoon, the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins will conclude a three-game set at Target Field. The Twins emerged victorious by a final score of 9-4 on Friday night, and won again by one run on Saturday evening. In the series finale, the Rays will turn to Jeffrey Springs, hoping to avoid a sweep. The Twins will counter with Cole Sands, who will be making only his third career MLB start. Oddsmakers anticipate Tampa Bay getting back in the win column in this spot, pricing them as -120 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays

On the season, Jeffrey Springs owns a 1.62 ERA, 2.96 xERA, 3.25 FIP, and a 0.92 WHIP. Exactly 75.0 percent of the batters that Springs have faced this season have been right-handed, as teams continue to try to exploit a perceived matchup advantage in that regard. However, a dramatic increase in changeup usage in 2022 has enabled Springs to hold right-handed batters to a .185 batting average and a .501 OPS. In fact, each of Springs’ three offerings are holding right-handed batters to a .195 batting average or lower–meaning that there are no “bad pitches” in his arsenal. All of this has translated to Springs owning a 2.26 FIP, 29.4 strikeout percentage, 4.8 percent walk-rate, and a 0.82 WHIP against righties in 2022. Expect another strong performance from Tampa Bay’s undervalued southpaw today.

If the Rays do not win this contest, it is likely to be a result of a poor showing at the plate. Wander Franco last played on May 30th, before landing on the injured list with a right quadriceps strain. Across the last two weeks of action, Tampa Bay ranks 28th in OPS, 24th in ISO, 8th in walk-rate, and 15th in strikeout percentage. 

However, the Rays have a strong chance to avoid a sweep this afternoon if they can do enough with the bats to take a lead into the latter frames. Across the last 30 days, Tampa Bay’s arm barn ranks 6th in FIP and 8th in WHIP. Entering play, no member of the bullpen has been used in consecutive days.

Minnesota Twins

At AAA this season, Cole Sands posted a 7.23 ERA and a 4.27 FIP across 18.2 innings of work. In his final four appearances, he allowed 14 earned runs and 24 baserunners in only 8.2 innings on the mound. At the big-league level in 2022, Sands owns an 8.49 ERA, 5.71 xERA, and a 6.91 FIP. Even more concerning are a 10.3 walk percentage and a 1.97 WHIP. In two turns through the rotation, Sands has a 14.3 walk percentage and a 2.48 WHIP. He is only getting a first-pitch strike against 57.1 percent of opposing hitters, while simultaneously allowing an abundance of hard-contact. Even against a depleted Tampa Bay offense, Sands does not appear to be a trustworthy option for bettors today.

Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are quickly becoming one of the best lineup tandems in all of baseball. Buxton has 5 home runs in his last 15 plate appearances, and Correa is batting .362 with 3 home runs and a 1.034 OPS since returning from the injured list on May 18th. Both of Minnesota’s stars have demolished left-handed pitching in 2022, with each player posting a 177 wRC+ or better against southpaws this season. However, the Twins rank only 13th in OPS and 18th in ISO as a team against lefties in 2022. If Springs can limit the damage done by Correa and Buxton, it could be difficult for Minnesota to score runs in this one.

Run prevention could also be a tall task today for the Twins, who have an extremely taxed bullpen entering play today. Joe Smith, Jharel Cotton, Emilio Pagan, and Jovani Moran have each tossed 36 pitches or more in the last four days. Jhoan Duran is one of four relief options in this arm barn that has appeared in two of the last three days.  

Rays vs. Twins Expert Pick 

Bettors may not be extremely familiar with Jeffrey Springs, but he ranks in the 75th percentile or better this season in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, strikeout percentage, walk percentage, whiff percentage, and chase rate. If he can limit the damage done by the red-hot Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, he should have another strong performance this afternoon. Cole Sands has struggled mightily in his first taste of sustained action at the MLB level. Tampa Bay has struggled with the bats since losing Wander Franco, but if they can push a few runs across the board–they have a path to victory today.

• PICK: Rays ML (-120), BetMGM Sportsbook