Boston Red Sox 2022 Pitching Preview and Cy Young Odds

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida previews the Boston Red Sox pitching staff ahead of Opening Day. Claim up to $1100 of first-bet insurance with our Caesars sign-up offer!

Boston Red Sox 2022 Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 84.5 Wins (+100)
• Best Regular Season Record: +4000
• Division Winner: +600
• To Make the Playoffs: -110
• American League Winner: +1200
• World Series Champion: +2500

Boston Red Sox Starting Rotation

Red Sox Cy Young Odds

Nathan Eovaldi (+2500)

In 2021, Nathan Eovaldi delivered the most outstanding season of his career, finishing 4th in American League Cy Young voting. Everything about Eovaldi’s end of season numbers indicate that he earned every ounce of his 3.75 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and 2.79 FIP. He ranked in the 62nd percentile in strikeout percentage and the 96th percentile in walk-rate. He ranked in the 80th percentile in wOBA and the 72nd percentile in barrel percentage. If not for a poor defense behind him, it is likely that he would have better fortune on balls in play, which would have earned him a few more Cy Young votes. Though Eovaldi has a dominant five pitch mix and does everything right on the mound, he will likely be punished even more in balls in play in 2022 after Boston signed Trevor Story to play second base–a position he has never played at the big league level. There are few pitchers better than Eovaldi, but as we learned in 2021–a pitcher needs some semblance of a defense behind him to win individual accolades. Who would have thought that the Cy Young was a team award?

Eovaldi’s AL Cy Young odds are +2500 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nick Pivetta

Last summer, Nick Pivetta posted a 3.68 FIP the first time through the order, a 3.47 FIP the second time through the order, but a dreadful 7.99 FIP the third time through the order. Pivetta was also significantly better when pitching away from home–recording a 5.26 FIP at Fenway Park and a 3.40 FIP on the road. The end of season output was a 4.53 ERA, 3.84 xERA, and a 4.28 FIP. A former fourth round pick, Pivetta theoretically still has some untapped upside as only 29 years old, but poor defense behind him and a 29th percentile walk-rate are salient roadblocks. 

Tanner Houck

In his first 86.0 innings at the big-league level, Tanner Houck has posted a 2.93 ERA and a 2.71 FIP. His 87th percentile strikeout percentage makes him the least reliant of any Boston starter on his weak infield defense behind him. Houck also ranked in the 77th percentile or better last summer in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, and xSLG. He pairs a mid-90s fastball with a devastating slider for over 75 percent of his offerings. It is not hard to see why, considering that opposing hitters posted only a .294 wOBA against his fastball and a .214 wOBA against his slider. Houck has been tougher on right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters so far in his career, but he is a well-above average arm on the mound, no matter who he is facing. If Houck can stay healthy, there is no visible ceiling for the talented 25 year old.

Michael Wacha

It is unclear exactly what Chaim Bloom sees in Michael Wacha, who owns a 4.67 ERA and a 4.88 FIP since the beginning of 2018. Ranking in only the 46th percentile in strikeout percentage, Wacha is overly reliant on his defense, which is significantly worse in Boston than it was in Tampa Bay last year. In 2021, Wacha ranked in the 24th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit-rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and spin rates. Wacha’s only semi-reliable offering from last year was his changeup, which he threw 29.4 percent of the time. Hitters tabulated a .424 wOBA against his curveball, .418 wOBA against his cutter, .352 wOBA against his sinker, and a .328 wOBA against his fastball. Unless there is something we are missing here, this experiment looks doomed from the start.

Rich Hill

Though Rich Hill is allegedly still battling Garrett Whitlock for the final rotation spot, it is doubtful that Hill is put in the bullpen, considering that he has only 90.1 innings of relief work on his career resume compared to 1,044.1 innings as a starter. Hill was serviceable in 32 games last summer, posting a 3.86 ERA, 4.39 xERA, and a 4.34 FIP. Yet, it remains to be seen if the 42 year old has one more year of production in the tank. His fastball velocity ranked in the 3rd percentile in 2021, which limited his ability to miss bats. As we have already mentioned, an inability to strike batters out seems to be tremendously problematic considering the lack of defensive talent playing behind this starting staff.

Chris Sale (+1600)

There are few wagers less shrewd than a preseason investment on Chris Sale to win the American League Cy Young award. Not only will Sale miss the first two months of the season due to a rib injury, he also appears to be a shell of himself following over a year away from the game to Tommy John surgery. In 2021, Sale posted his lowest strikeout rate since 2016 and his highest walk-rate since 2011. Sale still managed to deliver a 3.16 ERA, 3.47 xERA, and a 3.69 FIP across 42.2 innings of work, but he is no longer among the elite pitchers in baseball. Boston is hoping he can simply be very good and not miss any time beyond the first two months of the campaign.

Bullpen Preview

In 2021, the Red Sox bullpen ranked 10th in FIP (4.06), 13th in xFIP (4.23), 10th in strikeout percentage (25.6%), 24th in walk-rate (10.8%), and 23rd in WHIP (1.30). 

Matt Barnes was undeniably one of the best relievers in baseball through the first week in August, posting a 2.25 ERA and a 2.08 FIP across 44.0 innings of work. Then, Barnes posted a 10.13 ERA and a 7.86 FIP across his final 10.2 innings of the regular season before being left off of the ALCS roster completely. Boston’s bullpen went from being a strength to ranking 20th in the league in FIP from August 7th to the end of the regular season. This is a vulnerable unit if Barnes is unable to lockdown the 9th inning.

Garrett Whitlock was outstanding in his rookie year with Boston, delivering a 1.96 ERA, 2.96 xERA, and a 2.84 FIP. He ranked in the 74th percentile or better in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, and walk-rate. It made it all the sweeter that Chaim Bloom stole Whitlock from the New York Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft. Whitlock’s slider, changeup, and fastball each held opposing hitters to a .232 wOBA or worse in 2021. If Whitlock reduces the usage of his more hittable sinker in 2022, there is reason to believe he can be even better this summer.

Unlike Whitlock, Ryan Brasier is a candidate for significant regression in 2022. His 1.50 ERA was over two full runs lower than his 3.87 xERA and over three full runs lower than his 4.84 FIP. Pedestrian strikeout and walk numbers portend much worse production on the way.

Kutter Crawford has only 2.0 innings of MLB experience under his belt entering the upcoming season. Crawford has missed plenty of bats during his minor league career, but alarmingly-high walk-rates will be something to be mindful of early in the year.

Hansel Robles struck-out 25.6 percent of batters he faced in 2021, but that was about all he did well. He ranked in the 7th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel percentage. Since the beginning of 2020, Robles owns a 5.57 ERA and a 4.61 FIP. His best days are likely behind him.

Hirokazu Sawamura held opposing hitters to a putrid .237 wOBA against his split-finger in 2021. Unfortunately, that was his only good pitch. Hitters posted a .395 wOBA against his fastball and a .406 wOBA against his slider. Factor in that Sawamura ranked in only the 5th percentile in walk-rate and it becomes easier to see how he graded as a below average pitcher on the mound. Improved command and an increased usage of his best pitch is the obvious adjustment needed for better results in 2022 and beyond.

Jake Diekman delivered a career year in 2019 by throwing his fastball and slider for over 95 percent of his offerings. Inexplicably, he reduced his slider usage by nearly 8 percent in 2021, which–you guessed it–resulted in significantly worse numbers. He went from a 0.42 ERA to a 3.86 ERA and from a 2.72 FIP to a 4.46 FIP from 2020 to 2021. The simple solution is to reintroduce his slider more frequently and to abandon a sinker that fools very few hitters. There is massive potential for a rebound here, but it depends on what pitches Diekman chooses to throw.

Across his last 53.2 innings of work spanning three seasons, Austin Davis owns a 6.37 ERA and a 5.52 FIP. His 11.3 percent walk-rate during that span coupled with his lack of swing-and-miss stuff is likely to keep in lower leverage roles for the foreseeable future.