Red Sox vs. Orioles: Odds, Expert Pick and Prediction (4/29/22)

MLB expert Nick Galaida breaks down Red Sox vs. Orioles odds, picks and predictions for today — Friday, April 29. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 risk-free bet.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds

Tonight, the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles will begin a three-game set at Camden Yards. Entering play, the Red Sox and Orioles are both under the .500 mark, sitting in 4th and 5th place in the American League East division standings, respectively. On Friday, Boston will hand the ball to Rich Hill to start the game, but Tanner Houck will be available for long relief work as soon as the 3rd or 4th inning. Baltimore is sending Kyle Bradish to the hill for his Major League debut. MLB oddsmakers anticipate the Red Sox securing a win this evening, pricing them as -130 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Boston Red Sox

Rich Hill owns a 4.85 ERA, 4.27 xERA, and a 5.60 FIP through his first three turns in the rotation this season. Yet, he has not been terrible against everyone. Similar to last year, Hill has been strong against left-handed bats, but the veteran southpaw has struggled to a 6.43 FIP, 9.6 strikeout percentage, 11.5% walk-rate, and a 1.82 WHIP against right-handed hitters. Fortunately, for the Red Sox, Tanner Houck will be available for a rare relief appearance in this one. In 2021, Houck finished the campaign with a 2.00 FIP, 36.5 strikeout percentage, 6.8 percent walk-rate, and a 1.06 WHIP against right-handed batters. This tandem approach deployed by Manager Alex Cora tonight is going to make it extremely difficult for the Orioles to stack their lineup in an advantageous way–likely helping both Hill and Houck to deliver strong results.  

Still, there are concerns of which to be mindful if bettors are contemplating a wager on Boston in this one. The Red Sox offense ranks only 22nd in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 30th in walk-rate, and 13th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching so far in 2022. There is plenty of talent in this lineup, with names like Trevor Story, Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez. Positive regression will happen at some point for this group.

Another red flag is Boston’s overworked arm barn. The Red Sox have used John Schreiber in back-to-back days, likely making him unavailable on Friday. Jake Diekman, Austin Davis, Hansel Robles, Matt Barnes, and Ryan Brasier would each be making their third appearance in four days if they get into the ballgame today. Hill and Houck should be able to combine for seven innings, which mitigates this concern somewhat, but a late-inning lead could be stressful for bettors in this spot.

Baltimore Orioles

Kyle Bradish is a former 4th round draft selection, who has yet to come anywhere near his expected ceiling. In 2019, Bradish posted a 4.28 ERA and a 4.08 FIP at the A+ level of the minors. In 2021, Bradish delivered a 4.26 ERA and a 3.79 FIP across 86.2 frames at AAA. Though Bradish has respectable swing-and-miss ability, he has significant command issues that led to a problematic 1.42 WHIP at A+ and a 1.43 WHIP at AAA. Bradish was particularly poor against left-handed hitters in AAA, allowing 66 baserunners in only 40.0 innings.

The Orioles have struggled against both left- and right-handed pitching in 2022. Against southpaws, this offense ranks 20th in OPS, 26th in ISO, 13th in walk-rate, and 27th in strikeout percentage. Facing righties, Baltimore ranks 20th in OPS, 25th in ISO, 11th in walk-rate, and 25th in strikeout percentage. The added difficulty of not being able to stack the lineup tonight to create favorable matchups is only going to make life more difficult for this group.

Paul Fry and Mike Baumann are each unlikely to pitch in this one after both relievers threw 37 pitches or more on Thursday. Bryan Baker has thrown in two of the last three days, but there are no other usage issues to report ahead of first pitch.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Betting Pick 

Though the Red Sox offense has struggled to begin the year, there is still plenty of potential for this group. If Boston stacks Devers and Verdugo near the top of the order this evening, the presence of two left-handed batters could give the Red Sox an excellent opportunity to get on the board first. Bradish had a 4.82 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in 19 starts at AAA in 2021. This is an excellent spot to attack a Yes Run First Inning (YRFI).

• PICK: Yes – Run Firat Inning (-106), Multiple Sportsbooks