Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants: Could Lefties Lead To The Over? (6/13/22)

Free MLB Expert Pick For Monday

On Monday, the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants will begin a three-game, interleague set at Oracle Park. Entering play, Kansas City owns the second-worst record in the entire American League. San Francisco is fresh off of a sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers. In tonight’s series opener, the Royals will hand the ball to Brady Singer, as they look to get back in the win column. The Giants will try to run their current winning streak to four games, playing behind Alex Wood. Oddsmakers anticipate San Francisco starting the new week with a victory, pricing them as -165 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Kansas City Royals

In our preseason preview of the Royals’ pitching staff, we predicted that Brady Singer could be in for a breakout year in 2022 if he increased his changeup usage. In 2021, Singer threw the offering only 3.9 percent of the time, but opposing hitters posted an abysmal .253 xwOBA against it. Thus far in the new campaign, Singer has a 9.8 percent usage of his changeup, and hitters are still struggling against the pitch–batting only .200, with a .250 wOBA. The talented, young, right-hander is still an unfinished product, but he has above average swing-and-miss stuff in his arsenal, and he pairs it with an elite 98th percentile walk percentage. Bettors could do worse if looking to back an underdog.

Across the last 14 days, the Royals have hit the ball reasonably well against left-handed pitching, ranking 6th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 7th in walk percentage, and 8th in strikeout percentage. If there is any concern for the bats in this one, it is due to the fact that Kansas City had to travel to the West Coast for this contest. Still, the team landed in Oakland at 8:15 PT yesterday, so fatigue should not be too problematic.

An additional concern for this group on Monday is the availability of relievers. Taylor Clarke, Dylan Coleman, Jose Cuas, Albert Abreu, Joel Payamps, and Amir Garrett each threw yesterday. Clark, Coleman, Cuas, Abreu, and Payamps have each thrown in two of the last three days.

San Francisco Giants

Alex Wood owns a 4.23 ERA, 3.91 xERA, 3.25 FIP, and a 1.34 WHIP so far in 2022. Since getting blown-up by the San Diego Padres on May 22nd, Wood has been strong, with a 3.00 ERA, 2.58 FIP, and a 0.89 WHIP in three outings. However, Wood’s significant drop-off in spin rates from last season to this season are a concern. As a result of the reduced spin rates, the whiff percentage on Wood’s slider has fallen dramatically from 39.9 percent in 2021 to 27.2 percent in 2022. Still, Wood has been excellent against left-handed batters this year, with a 2.30 FIP, 31.5 strikeout percentage, and a 0.91 WHIP. If the Royals want to have success against the southpaw, they should look to exploit the fact that Wood has a 3.58 FIP, 20.9 strikeout percentage, and a 1.49 WHIP against right-handed hitters this season.

Despite entering play on a three-game winning streak, the Giants bats have been underwhelming. Across the last two weeks, San Francisco ranks 21st in OPS, 9th in ISO, 18th in walk percentage, and 28th in strikeout percentage. Tonight’s opposing starter, Singer, is far from elite, but he could still present some problems for this group this evening.    

Manager Gabe Kapler will be (and should be) heralded for his shrewd decision-making over the weekend, earning an important sweep over the Dodgers. However, those three wins did not come without consequences. San Francisco could have significant issues finding rested arms in the late innings today. Tyler Rogers, Jake McGee, John Brebbia, and Camilo Doval have each appeared in three of the last five days. Dominic Leone has thrown in four of the last five days.  John Brebbia has appeared twice in the last four days. The late innings could be stressful for Giants’ fans in this one.

Royals vs. Giants Expert Pick 

Prior to the season, MLB announced that they would be introducing the presence of humidors in all 30 MLB stadiums for the 2022 campaign. Research done by The Athletic estimated a 9.9% increase in Home Runs at Oracle Park due to the playing environment changes. In night games last year, Oracle park ranked 27th out of 30 venues in park factors for home runs–15 percent below league average. So far in 2022, Oracle Park ranks 15th out of 30 venues–only 2 percent below league average. In fact, Oracle Park has become one of the most hitter-friendly venues in all of baseball this season, if factoring in offensive metrics beyond just home runs. Assuming that the Giants have a left-handed heavy lineup this evening, and that the Royals chip in at least a few runs on their end – the over appears to be a strong play in this one.

• PICK: Over 8 Runs (-110), BetMGM Sportsbook