Royals vs. Mariners Betting Preview: Odds, Picks and Predictions (4/23/22)
MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Royals vs. Mariners odds, picks and predictions for today — Saturday, April 23. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance!
Royals vs. Mariners Odds
Tonight, the Kansas City Royals and the Seattle Mariners will continue a three-game set at T-Mobile Park. Seattle emerged victorious in the series opener by a final score of 4-1 behind a strong outing from Chris Flexen. On Saturday, the Royals will hand the ball to Kris Bubic, who will be opposed by Matt Brash. Oddsmakers anticipate the Mariners coming away with a victory in this one, pricing them as -165 favorites on the moneyline.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.
Kansas City Royals
When Kris Bubic debuted with the Royals in 2020, he had never thrown a single pitch above the A+ level of the minor leagues. Thus, his career 4.57 ERA and 5.06 FIP have to be forgiven somewhat, as he is essentially still learning how to become an MLB pitcher–something most guys get to do in AA and AAA, with far less media scrutiny. Still, his career 20.8 strikeout percentage, 11.1 percent walk-rate, and 1.44 WHIP are untrustworthy numbers for sports bettors. Bubic’s 5.93 FIP on the road in 2021 makes him a consistent fade in these types of situations. Figuring out the best way to fade him is the harder question.
It becomes even more appealing to fade the Royals when examining their offensive production. Against right-handed pitching in 2022, Kansas City ranks 25th in OPS, 20th in ISO, 27th in walk rate, 4th in strikeout percentage, and 27th in wRC+ at the plate. This lineup does not project to have much success against an emerging star, Matt Brash, this evening.
Gabe Speier has thrown each of the last two days out of the bullpen. Everyone else, including each of the Royals’ top late-inning options, should be available tonight for Manager Mike Matheny to utilize as he sees fit.
Seattle Mariners
Through two starts, the underlying metrics have not been kind to Brash. His 5.16 xERA and 5.66 FIP portend significant regression on his 3.38 ERA. Yet, it would be unwise to put too much stock into such a small sample size, especially considering Brash’s elite numbers during his minor league career. In his first two turns through the rotation, Brash has limited the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros to two runs each. Brash’s main red flag is his command. However, this issue might not be too problematic in a matchup against a Kansas City lineup that has one of the lowest walk-rates in all of baseball.
Against left-handed pitching so far this season, the Mariners rank 13th in OPS, 7th in ISO, 1st in walk-rate, 9th in strikeout percentage, and 10th in wRC+. J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suarez, Abraham Toro, Jarred Kelenic, and Dylan Moore each struggled against southpaws in 2021, but the early returns suggest that this could be one of the better lineups in baseball against lefties this summer.
Andres Munoz and Anthony Misiewicz put the finishing touches on a victory last night for the Mariners, but neither of them threw on Thursday. Drew Steckenrider, Erik Swanson, Diego Castillo, Matt Fiesta, and Justus Sheffield are each well rested and should be available as needed in this one.
Free MLB Betting Pick For Today
The Mariners have the better starting pitcher and the better offense in this contest. There are some concerns for Seattle when it comes to the lineup, but these are not big enough reg flags to scare bettors away from locking in a wager here. Avoid the juice by taking the Mariners on the run live for the first five innings in this matchup.