San Diego Padres Cy Young Odds and 2022 Pitching Predictions

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida looks at San Diego Padres’ pitching staff and Cy Young odds as they begin the 2022 MLB season. Make sure to claim a $1000 free bet with our BetMGM promo code.

St. Louis Cardinals Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 87.5 Wins (+100)
• Best Regular Season Record: +1600
• Division Winner: +380
• To Make the Playoffs: -225
• National League Winner: +950
• World Series Champion: +1900

Padres Cy Young Odds

Yu Darvish (+4500)

In his first season with the San Diego Padres, Yu Darvish was okay–at least relative to his own lofty standards. He still finished the year with a 4.22 ERA, 3.35 xERA, and a 3.90 FIP. Darvish also ranked in the 64th percentile in average exit velocity, 81st percentile in xwOBA, 84th percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 77th percentile in walk-rate. Excellent command and elite spin rates keep his floor high, though he did struggle to a 6.16 ERA and a 4.96 FIP after the All-Star break in 2021. The addition of Ruben Niebla as the team’s new pitching coach combined with better health could help him return to his 2020 breakout, during which he delivered a 2.01 ERA, 2.99 xERA, and a 2.23 FIP. Petco Park figures to be more hitter-friendly than in year’s past, but there are worse players to invest in on the futures market at this price range.

Darvish’s NL Cy Young odds are +3000 on PointsBet Sportsbook, but you can get +4500 on DraftKings.

Sean Manaea (+4000)

If you read our season preview on the Oakland Athletics, you knew MLB futures bettors should not invest in Sean Manaea to win the American League Cy Young Award, but does he have what it takes to win the honor now that he has a permanent home for 2022 in the National League? Probably not.

Manaea is simply nowhere near talented enough to contend for such an award. In 2021, Manaea posted one of his better statistical campaigns since debuting in 2016, but still ranked below league average in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, velocity, and spin rate. Factor in that Petco Park will be installing a humidor, which is widely expected to exponentially increase offensive production, and it becomes even more difficult to imagine Manaea being much better than he has been in the past. Still, trading for a pitcher with a safe floor that is approximately 15 percent better than league average was a shrewd transaction by A.J. Preller.

Joe Musgrove (+3000)

Joe Musgrove was undeniably the best pitcher for the Padres last summer. Not only did he make every one of his scheduled starts–plus a cameo out of the bullpen in an emergency situation–he finished the year with a sterling 3.18 ERA, 3.90 xERA, and a 3.70 FIP as a solidly upper-tier starter in the big-leagues. Big Joe features elite spin rates that helped him finish in the 72nd percentile in average exit velocity and the 73rd percentile in strikeout percentage. Strong command and good self-awareness give him a stable floor. He is one of the few pitchers in baseball that throws his two best pitches more than his other offerings. In 2021, Musgrove held opposing hitters to a .224 wOBA against his slider and a .308 wOBA against his curveball. If his new pitching coach can convince him to up his usage of those two pitches even more in 2022, it is possible that we have not seen the best of Musgrove. 

Mike Clevinger (+8000)

Reunited with Ruben Niebla, Mike Clevinger has all of the resources needed to re-establish himself as a premier pitcher in the MLB. Clevinger missed all of last year as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, but posted a 2.71 ERA, 3.15 xERA, and a 2.49 FIP in his last full season in the big-leagues. From 2018 to 2020, spanning 367.2 innings, Clevinger had a 2.91 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 28.3 strikeout percentage, and an 8.0 percent walk-rate. He is undoubtedly the best fourth starter in the National League if he is healthy. Pitching for the first time during Spring Training, Clevinger surrendered eight runs while not lasting long enough to finish the second inning. Not everyone is at their peak form immediately upon their return to action, but Clevinger could be a dynamic weapon for this starting staff by the middle of the campaign.

Blake Snell (+5000)

The optimists will see that Blake Snell posted a 1.83 ERA and a 2.00 FIP in his final seven turns through the rotation in 2021 before a groin injury ended his season. The realists will point out that three of those seven outings came against the hapless Arizona Diamondbacks. In Snell’s first 20 starts, he delivered a 5.24 ERA and a 4.63 FIP while walking 14.2 percent of opposing batters. The problem is obvious–a 1.95 FIP and a palatable 8.2 percent walk rate against left-handed hitters, but a 4.46 FIP and a disastrous 13.8 percent walk rate against right-handed hitters. In Snell’s two best years against right-handed batters, he featured his curveball far more frequently against righties than at any other point in his career. Opposing right-handed batters have never posted higher than a .296 wOBA against Snell’s curveball, and have posted a .153 wOBA against the pitch in four of the last six seasons. This should not be a difficult fix, but bettors will need to wait and see if Niebla urges Snell to change his pitch usage at all in 2022.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Padres bullpen ranked 13th in FIP (4.14), 9th in xFIP (4.18), 13th in strikeout percentage (24.6%), 7th in walk-rate (9.0%), and 6th in WHIP (1.24). 

Per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, Robert Suarez appears to be the favorite to handle 9th inning responsibilities in San Diego in 2022. Fresh off of a five-year stint in Japan, Suarez saved 67 games across his final two seasons overseas. Suarez signed a two-year, $11 million contract during the winter, indicating a significant financial commitment from the Friars.

Emilio Pagan has done little to push for higher-leverage work in 2022. Across the last two campaigns, Pagan owns a 4.75 ERA and a 5.09 FIP. In 2021, he finished the year ranked in the 15th percentile in average exit velocity and the 30th percentile in xwOBA. Opposing hitters posted a .353 wOBA against his fastball, his primary pitch, last summer. The lack of an offspeed offering or breaking pitch figures to continue to be problematic going forward.

Pierce Johnson has improved his xERA each of the last three years in which he has taken the mound, posting a 4.15 xERA in 2018, a 3.79 xERA in 2020, and a 3.39 xERA in 2021. In that span, his curveball usage has gone from 28.3 percent to 54.2 percent to 67.5 percent. Johnson’s curveball held batters to a .262 wOBA in 2021. A 17th percentile walk-rate continues to be an issue, but a 91st percentile strikeout rate and finishing in the 78th percentile in xwOBA makes him perfectly capable of handling 7th inning duty.

Craig Stammen has been one of the most consistent sources of serviceable relief work in the major-leagues since 2017. Across his last five seasons, he owns a 3.23 ERA and a 3.60 FIP, having never posted worse than a 3.56 xERA or a 4.38 FIP in that span. A low-90s fastball with mediocre spin rates on his entire arsenal keeps his ceiling rather low. However, it also keeps his floor rather high.

Tim Hill has posted a 3.43 FIP against left-handed hitters during his career, but has suffered a 4.82 FIP against right-handed batters. The three batter minimum rule further complicated his effectiveness. He can be a weapon as a member of a bullpen unit where Hill only has to be used in favorable contexts. A healthier pitching staff in 2022 would go a long way towards improving Hill’s overall numbers.

Steven Wilson has never pitched at the MLB level, but a mid-90s fastball and a slider could prove effective in lower-leverage situations.

Since 2019, Austin Adams’ slider usage has gone from 63.6 percent to 83.8 percent to 87.1 percent. The pitch usage is particularly interesting, considering that it has caused his strikeout rate to plummet from 40.8 percent to 31.5 percent while simultaneously increasing his walk rate from 12.3 percent to 14.5 percent. Adams’ became a meme in 2021 for hitting the most batters in baseball, despite pitching only 52.2 innings. Command issues make Adams a far less productive pitcher than one would expect for someone who ranks in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity and the 98th percentile in xSLG.

Talent has never been an issue for Dinelson Lamet, who owns a 3.03 ERA and a 3.07 FIP across his last 116.0 innings of work. The problem has been that his violent delivery has limited him to only 34 games in that time period. Armed with more than enough starting pitching depth heading into 2022, perhaps a permanent move to the arm barn will allow Lamet’s elite slider to flourish in shorter outings. Opposing hitters have never posted higher than a .215 wOBA against the pitch.