San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Odds, Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Padres vs. Giants odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Monday. Use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 free MLB bet!

Padres vs. Giants Odds

On Monday evening, the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants will begin a three-game set at Oracle Park. San Diego lost their season opener, but enters the new week having won three consecutive games. San Francisco took two of three contests over the weekend against the Miami Marlins. MLB Oddsmakers anticipate the Giants snapping the Padres winning streak, pricing them as -146 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks.

San Diego Padres

Nick Martinez has not pitched in a Major League Baseball game since 2017 with the Texas Rangers. In his career, he owns a 4.77 ERA and a 5.36 FIP. In 2017, he finished the campaign with a 5.66 ERA, 4.73 xERA, and a 5.80 FIP across 111.1 innings of work. He ranked in only the 16th percentile in xwOBA, 16th percentile in xERA, and the 6th percentile in strikeout percentage. Reportedly, Martinez has added velocity and improved his command in the last four years playing in Japan, but there is obviously a tremendous difference in the level of competition between leagues overseas as baseball in the United States.

Against left-handed pitching, in 2021, San Diego ranked 24th in OPS, 26th in ISO, 5th in walk rate, 8th in strikeout percentage, and 24th in wRC+ at the plate. The offseason addition of Luke Voit ostensibly improved this lineup against southpaws, but the veteran slugger is only 1-for-8 at the dish to begin the season. This lineup scored only one run against Madison Bumgarner on opening day. on one hit against the lefty across three innings to begin the game –– though they did drive up his pitch count.

San Diego used Tim Hill, Dinelson Lamet, and Taylor Rogers on Friday. Steven Wilson, Pierce Johnson, and Rogers each appeared on Saturday. Craig Stammen, Nabil Crismatt, Austin Adams, Robert Suarez, and Javy Guerra appeared on Sunday. This unit is not over-taxed, but they have been relatively heavily used during the first few days of the new season–especially after Blake Snell was unexpectedly scratched yesterday shortly before first pitch. There are likely to be a few members of this arm barn unavailable on Monday.

San Francisco Giants

Last summer, Alex Wood posted a 3.83 ERA, 3.90 xERA, and a 3.48 FIP. Notably, his much-improved slider held opposing hitters to a .253 wOBA. In 2021, Wood was significantly better when pitching at home compared to the road–delivering a 3.13 FIP, 26.1 strikeout percentage, 6.5 percent walk rate, and a 1.04 WHIP at Oracle Park. He was similarly strong against both left- and right-handed batters, though he generated more swings-and-misses against righties. If San Diego uses the same lineup they did last Thursday against Bumgarner, there will be six right-handed hitters in the lineup on Monday.

Against right-handed pitching, in 2021, San Francisco ranked 5th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 4th in walk-rate, 21st in strikeout percentage, and 4th in wRC+ at the dish. Though this lineup does not have the biggest names in baseball, there are few weaknesses to this offensive attack. Last year, the Giants had five players from their projected Saturday lineup finish with an .824 OPS or better, and another three batters finish with a .733 OPS or better. Joey Bart is perhaps the only weak link in this group in the early portion of the campaign.

San Francisco’s bullpen is not in great shape heading into the new week. A short outing from Anthony DeSclafani on Sunday forced Jarlin Garcia to throw 16 pitches, Zack Littell to throw 21 pitches, Tyler Rogers to throw 5 pitches, and Dominic Leone to throw 13 pitches. Camilo Doval, Jake McGee, and Jose Alvarez threw each of the two days prior to yesterday. Fortunately for San Francisco, they have plenty of depth in their arm barn–finishing 2021 ranked 2nd in FIP (3.71), 11th in xFIP (4.20), 22nd in strikeout percentage (22.6%), 1st in walk-rate (7.4%), and 1st in WHIP (1.13). This unit should be able to hide some fatigue issues on Monday, especially if they get a strong start from Wood.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

Although Nick Martinez is reportedly much-improved since the last time we saw him on an MLB field, it is difficult to go against a San Francisco team that won 107 games in 2021 and is starting one of their better pitchers in this one.

The Giants have the better starting pitcher and the better offense. San Francisco also has the more talented bullpen, even if they might be more fatigued. The Giants are a worthwhile risk in this spot.

• PICK: Giants, Moneyline (-149), BetMGM