San Francisco Giants Cy Young Odds and 2022 Pitching Predictions

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida looks at San Francisco Giants Cy Young odds and gives you his predictions for the 2022 season. Make sure to claim a $1000 risk-free bet with BetMGM bonus.

San Francisco Giants Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 84.5 Wins (+120)
• Best Regular Season Record: +3500
• Division Winner: +550
• To Make the Playoffs: -128
• National League Winner: +1300
• World Series Champion: +280

Giants Cy Young Odds

Logan Webb (+2500)

All of the nerds have been waiting for Logan Webb to breakout since he joined the San Francisco Giants in 2019. Listed as my favorite breakout pitcher ahead of Opening Day. He did not disappoint. Across his final 20 starts, he posted a 2.40 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 27.4 strikeout percentage, and a 4.8 percent walk-rate. His 59 FIP- in that span was 41 percent better than the league average pitcher. Webb ended the year ranked in the 66th percentile in average exit velocity, 85th percentile in xwOBA, 69th percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 83rd percentile in walk-rate. He had a 2.35 FIP when pitching at home and a 3.08 FIP on the road. He turned in a 3.06 FIP against left-handed hitters and a 2.41 FIP against right-handed hitters. The improvements seem to be here to stay.

From 2020 to 2021, Webb increased his sinker usage from 15.0 percent to 37.7 percent, his slider usage from 15.3 percent to 27.7 percent, and dramatically reduced the rates at which he threw his fastball and changeup. Opposing batters posted a .318 wOBA against his fastball, a .293 wOBA against his changeup, and a .191 wOBA against his changeup. Though it seems like common sense, few pitchers in baseball throw their three best offerings more often than their less effective pitches. Bettors can expect Webb to be dominant once agin in 2022.

Webbs NL Cy Young odds are +1400 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can get +2500 on Caesars.

Carlos Rodon (+2000)

Carlos Rodon finished last year ranked in the 95th percentile in xwOBA, 96th percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 73rd percentile in walk-rate. A 2.37 ERA, 2.68 xERA, and a 2.65 FIP would likely have garnered him the American League Cy Young award, but shoulder fatigue limited him to only 132.2 innings. Rodon did not pitch into the 6th inning a single time after July 18th. Further, his average fastball velocity dropped from 96.7 miles-per-hour in June to 92.9 miles-per-hour in September. In fact, he lost multiple ticks off of each of his four pitches by the end of the season. Rodon has more than enough talent to be one of the premier arms in the league, but he has failed to make more than 24 starts in a campaign since 2016. Volume is likely to keep Rodon from earning hardware in his first season on the Best Coast.

Anthony DeSclafani (+12500)

If not for having to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, Anthony DeSclafani might have won over a few more hearts in San Francisco. Nonetheless, the Dodgers were on the schedule, and those matchups did not go well for DeSclafani. In six starts, DeSclafani allowed 22 earned runs in 27.0 innings. Still, DeSclafani managed to finish the year with a 3.17 ERA, 3.95 xERA, and a 3.62 FIP. His underlying metrics–48th percentile in average exit velocity, 58th percentile in xwOBA, and below average spin rates–portend regression in 2022, but he has solidified himself as a stalwart in the middle of this rotation. His newfound reliance on a slider as his primary pitch has created a surprisingly safe floor for the veteran. If he can post a 4.00 ERA this summer, the Giants will be more than happy with the results.

Alex Wood (+15000)

In 2017, Alex Wood looked like the next big thing in the major-leagues, posting a 2.72 ERA, 3.17 xERA, and a 3.32 FIP with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Then, his career looked to be trending towards bust after turning in a 5.96 ERA and a 6.02 FIP across a small sample size of 48.1 innings from 2019 to 2020. Wood returned to being much better than league average in 2021, with a 3.83 ERA, 3.90 xERA, and a 3.48 FIP. His much-improved slider, against which hitters had a putrid .253 wOBA, was a primary cause for the positive regression. If Wood increases his usage of the slider in 2022, we could see even better results from the talented southpaw if he can stay healthy–a big if.

Alex Cobb (+12500)

Alex Cobb was good, but not great, in 93.1 innings for the Los Angeles Angels. He finished the campaign with a 3.76 ERA, 3.98 xERA, and a 2.92 FIP. He featured his splitter slightly more often and reduced the frequency of his sinker. At 33 years old, Cobb also saw a surprising uptick in velocity on each of his pitches, which resulted in a career-high 24.9 percent strikeout rate. If healthy, Cobb is one of the best back-of-the-rotation pieces in all of baseball. San Francisco’s front office might not deliver the sexiest offseason splashes, but they certainly understand how to build a winning club.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Giants bullpen ranked 2nd in FIP (3.71), 11th in xFIP (4.20), 22nd in strikeout percentage (22.6%), 1st in walk-rate (7.4%), and 1st in WHIP (1.13). 

Following a late-season call-up to the big-leagues, Camilo Doval was arguably the most dominant reliever in all of baseball. Across 14.1 innings, Doval had a 0.00 ERA, 1.01 FIP, 38.5 strikeout percentage, and a 5.8 percent walk-rate. Featuring a cutter that can hit triple-digits on the radar gun and a suddenly elite slider, command issues are the only thing that could derail a sensational 2022.

Jake McGee is an uncomplicated man. In 2021, he threw his fastball for 90.1 percent of all his offerings en route to a 2.72 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and a 3.35 FIP. A deceptive delivery makes his mid-90s heater difficult to pick up, and it led to opposing hitters having only a .244 wOBA against the pitch last summer. Expect another strong campaign from him in 2022.

Since debuting in 2019, Tyler Rogers owns a 2.56 ERA and a 3.11 FIP across 126.2 innings of work. Last season, Rogers ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and the 92nd percentile in xwOBA, despite ranking in only the 9th percentile in strikeout percentage. There is arguably room for growth for Rogers, who held opposing hitters to a .161 wOBA with his slider last year, but surrendered a .352 wOBA against his fastball–the pitch he threw more frequently. He figures to be part of a nasty three-headed monster for Manager Gabe Kapler in the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning.   

Jose Alvarez is another soft-tossing, albeit reliable, option for Kapler in the arm barn. Despite a fastball that ranked in only the 17th percentile in velocity, Alvarez ranked in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity and the 76th percentile in xwOBA. Excellent command and the self-awareness to throw his most effective pitches the most often are likely to help the 33 year old post strong numbers again in 2022.

Since joining the Giants at the beginning of the 2020 campaign, Jarlin Garcia owns a 2.17 ERA and a 3.63 FIP. Like so many of his teammates, Garcia’s success stems primarily from throwing his best pitches more often than his less effective offerings. Though this may seem like an obvious decision, the Giants are one of the few teams in baseball that seems to have made this a non-negotiable part of securing a roster spot at the big-league level. The floor is extremely high for Garcia heading into his third year in San Francisco. 

Prior to joining the Giants, Dominic Leone had a career 4.77 ERA and a 4.41 FIP. So, how did he manage to deliver a 1.51, 3.39 xERA, and a 3.08 FIP in his first season in San Francisco? He increased his fastball usage from 33.0 percent to 47.4 percent, which helped him maintain adequate-enough control to let his other pitches dance. His slider generated a 46.2 percent swing-and-miss rate–holding opposing hitters to a dreadful .119 wOBA. His cutter seemed to benefit from the change in pitch usage as well, as it held batters to a .270 wOBA. Leone is likely to see lower-leverage situations more often than not, but he is a great 6th-best pitcher in this bullpen unit.

Prior to joining San Francisco, Zack Littell had a career 4.52 ERA and a 5.43 FIP. So, how did he manage to deliver a 2.92 ERA, 3.92 xERA, and a 3.87 FIP in his first season with the Giants? This article is becoming redundant because San Francisco’s approach to improving pitchers is redundant. Littell held opposing hitters to a .264 wOBA on his fastball and a .289 wOBA on his slider, seemingly because he found a more appropriate pitch mix. Littell made a clear decision to attack hitters with his mid-90s fastball more frequently when ahead in the count and the results paid enormous dividends. He posted, by far, the best strikeout rate of his career as a result of throwing his best swing-and-miss pitch more often when ahead in the count–trashing the narrative that pitchers have to go with their slider in 0-1 and 0-2 counts. The recipe to success on the mound does not seem to be that complicated–or at least it is not for a team like the Giants, who are not afraid to turn conventional baseball “wisdom” on its head.

Kervin Castro threw his first 13.1 innings at the MLB level in his rookie debut last year for the Giants, allowing zero runs while posting a 23.2 strikeout percentage against a 7.1 percent walk-rate. After dominating the minor leagues, do not be surprised if Castro is the latest in a long line of elite relief options to prosper for this group.