Seattle Mariners 2022 Futures Odds and Betting Preview
Check out this 2022 Seattle Mariners futures preview and use our BetMGM promo to claim a $1000 risk-free bet ahead of Opening Day.
Seattle Mariners 2022 Futures Odds
- Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 84.5 Wins (-110)
- Best Regular Season Record: +10000
- Division Winner: +500
- To Make the Playoffs: +194
- American League Winner: +2000
- World Series Odds: +4000
There were moments during the fall of 2021 when it appeared that the Seattle Mariners were going to earn their first playoff berth since 2001. Unfortunately a 90-72 overall record was only good enough for 2nd place in the American League West division, and not good enough to secure a Wild Card position. This off-season, the Mariners were extremely aggressive via free agency and in the trade market, adding Robbie Ray, Jesse Winker, Ken Giles, and others to a roster seemingly on the rise. Yet, nearly all of the Mariners’ advanced metrics for 2021 indicate that they were significantly worse than their final record. The Mariners were an MLB-best 33-19 in one-run games. Some pundits might argue that was due to their talented bullpen and clutch offense, but more than anything–they were lucky. There is no denying that Seattle added an abundance of talent in the offseason, but it is still debatable as to whether or not this is a group capable of ascending further in 2022. Let’s take a deeper look at how their lineup projects for this summer.
Offensive Preview
| Name | Pos. | GP 2021 | wRC+ v. LHP | wRC+ v. RHP | K% | BB% | UZR/ 150 |
| Tom Murphy | C | 97 | 125 | 45 | 30.5% | 12.3% | – |
| Ty France | 1B | 152 | 141 | 124 | 16.3% | 7.1% | 4.8 |
| Adam Frazier | 2B | 155 | 107 | 117 | 10.8% | 7.5% | 0.3 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 3B | 145 | 63 | 93 | 29.8% | 9.8% | 0.7 |
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 160 | 98 | 106 | 16.6% | 8.4% | 0.2 |
| Jarred Kelenic | LF | 93 | 41 | 93 | 28.1% | 9.5% | -13.8 |
| Julio Rodriguez | CF | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mitch Haniger | RF | 157 | 148 | 107 | 24.5% | 7.8% | -2.2 |
| Jesse Winker | DH | 110 | 57 | 178 | 15.5% | 10.9% | -4.8 |
| Abraham Toro | UTIL | 95 | 86 | 99 | 14.4% | 8.3% | 4.3 |
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Seattle ranked 26th in OPS, 20th in ISO, 27th in strikeout percentage, 22nd in walk rate, and 22nd in wRC+. Facing right-handed pitching, the Mariners ranked 25th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 27th in strikeout percentage, 9th in walk rate, and 16th in wRC+.
Following a promising 2019, in which he hit 18 home runs and batted .273, Tom Murphy missed the entire 2020 campaign with a broken foot. His return to the field went less well than he would have liked, striking out in 30.5 percent of his plate appearances while hitting .202 with only 11 home runs in 97 games. Murphy does not grade particularly well with his glove either, but pitchers reportedly like throwing to him. Murphy owns a 122 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in his career, but it is fair to wonder if he is better suited to a more limited role. Handed an everyday role for the first time in 2021, Ty France did not disappoint. He was solid defensively at first base and graded as a plus-hitter against both left- and right-handed pitching. He also ranked in the 78th percentile among qualifying hitters in strikeout rate.
The Mariners traded for Adam Frazier this offseason, acquiring him from the San Diego Padres. Last summer, Frazier finished 5th in the National League in hits (176) and batting average (.305). He ranked in the 90th percentile in xBA and the 98th percentile in strikeout rate, proving that he is one of the best contact hitters in baseball. He rarely hits the ball hard, but he can be a comparatively valuable seventh-best hitter in this lineup. His counterpart in the middle infield, J.P. Crawford, has a similar offensive profile. Last summer, Crawford ranked in the 16th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. Yet, Crawford was close to league average in terms of offensive production against both southpaws and righties–making him a playable bat for 160 games. His high-contact rate and solid defense make him a productive starter.
A former sixth overall draft selection, Jarred Kelenic was one of the most hyped prospects in baseball entering 2021. The hype quickly faded during a stretch of 42 consecutive plate appearances without a from May 26th to June 6th. Following a brief demotion to the minors, Kelenic returned to the big leagues to hit .209 with a .291 on-base-percentage over the final three months of the regular season. There is plenty of room for growth, considering his prospect status and the fact that he is only 22 years old. Yet, he is far less of a guarantee than many people projected at this time 16 months ago.
Seattle Mariners AL MVP Odds
Jesse Winker (+5000)
Jesse Winker had a career-year in 2021, though injuries limited him to only one game after August 15th. In 110 games, Winker hit 24 home runs and collected 71 RBI while batting .305 and posting a .394 on-base-percentage. His xwOBA ranked in the 92nd percentile among qualified hitters. He also cut his strikeout-rate to an elite 15.5 percent. Winker has been one of the league’s most feared hitters against right-handed pitching each of the last two seasons, but he will need to stay on the field for him to significantly improve Seattle’s team offensive metrics. Winker’s ceiling is also capped by a dreadful approach against southpaws.
Winker’s odds to win AL Most Valuable Player are +5000 across the board at DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and Caesars.
Mitch Haniger (+6600)
Mitch Haniger has been one of the most underrated hitters in baseball since he arrived in Seattle in 2017. Since his Mariners debut, Haniger has produced at a rate 26 percent better than the league average hitter, measured by wRC+. A return to full health in 2021 yielded the most impressive numbers to date of his career–posting 39 home runs and 100 RBI in 157 games. He ranked in the 73rd percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. He strikes-out too often and walks too infrequently to be considered among baseball’s elite, but he is poised for another solid year in 2022.
Eugenio Suarez (+8000)
From 2017 to 2019, Eugenio Suarez hit 109 home runs and tallied 289 RBI while batting .271 with a .364 on-base-percentage. Suarez had seemingly established himself as one of the premier hitters in the game, but it is fair to wonder if we will ever see similar production from the veteran again. Across his last 805 plate appearances spanning 202 games across two seasons, Suarez has 46 home runs, but a ghastly .199 batting average and a .293 on-base-percentage. In 2021, he ranked below league average in average exit velocity, xwOBA, and hard-hit rate. He ranked in the 6th percentile or worse in xBA and strikeout percentage at the plate. Going from one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league to one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball is not likely to return his statistical production to its peak.
Rookie of the Year Odds
Julio Rodriguez (+700)
Another MLB futures market Seattle bettors ought to concsider is AL Rookie of the Year. Though Seattle fans may understandably be hedging their emotional bets here after last year’s top prospect, Jarred Kelenic, floundered in his arrival–there is little reason to be tepid prior to Opening Day.
Julio Rodriguez combined for 13 home runs, 47 RBI, and 21 stolen bases in only 74 minor league games in 2021. He is undeniably one of the best prospects in baseball. His high-contact rate and mature approach at the plate should translate well to the big league level. He might not have the power production necessary to edge out Bobby Witt Jr. for American League Rookie of the Year, but Rodriguez should be a pleasant addition to the Mariners’ lineup in 2022, whenever he ultimately makes his arrival.