2022 Mariners Pitching Preview: Can Ray Defend His AL Cy Young, In Seattle?

Seattle Mariners 2022 Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 84.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +10000
• Division Winner: +500
• To Make the Playoffs: +194
• American League Winner: +2000
• World Series Odds: +4000

Mariners 2022 Starting Rotation

Cy Young Odds

Robbie Ray (+1000)

Robbie Ray may have won the American League Cy Young award in 2021, but there are extremely strong arguments to be made that there were quite a few more deserving candidates. Ray posted his best numbers since 2016, with a 2.84 ERA, 3.60 xERA, and a 3.69 FIP. However, he ranked in only the 15th percentile in average exit velocity, 17th percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 16th percentile in barrel percentage. There is little question as to whether Ray can miss bats–he has ranked in the 93rd percentile or better in strikeout percentage in three of the last five seasons. However, he has also ranked in the 4th percentile or worse in walk-rate twice during that span.

Nevertheless, Ray’s command issues seem to be legitimately in his past if he replicates his 2021 pitch usage numbers going forward. Most notably, Ray reduced his curveball usage from 16.9 percent in 2020 to 6.0 percent last summer. If there is any major concern here, it is that Ray throws his 4-seam fastball and slider for over 90 percent of his pitches. It is difficult to sustain success going through the batting order multiple times with only two pitches at one’s disposal. Ray will be an interesting case study to follow in 2022, but significant regression could be on the horizon.

If I haven’t scared you from betting Ray, you can find his best odds at BetMGM.

Marco Gonzales (+7000)

In 2021, Marco Gonzales ranked in the 26th percentile or worse in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, whiff percentage, velocity, and spin rate. Surprisingly, he was able to finish the year with a 3.96 ERA thanks to an undeserved .239 BABIP, which ranked 5th-lowest among 115 starting pitchers, per Baseball Prospectus. His 5.06 xERA and 5.28 FIP suggest that he was extremely lucky when it came to run prevention last summer. Gonzales figures to experience major regression in 2022. League average production appears to be his ceiling, with his floor being much lower than that.

Chris Flexen (+8000)

From 2017 to 2019, Chris Flexen delivered a 4.83 ERA and a 4.72 FIP across 247.2 innings of work at the big league level. In 2020, Flexen played a season in the KBO, looking to refine his repertoire before returning to America. The hiatus proved worthwhile as Flexen posted a career best 3.61 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 3.89 FIP spanning 179.2 innings in 2021 for the Mariners. Still, it remains to be seen if his success can be sustained. Last summer, he ranked in the 33rd percentile in average exit velocity, 22nd percentile in xBA, and 34th percentile in xSLG. His 16.9 strikeout percentage ranked in only the 9th percentile, which ranked 107th out of 115 MLB starters, per Baseball Prospectus. Seattle is hoping they can squeeze league average production out of Flexen again in 2022, but there are more than a few red flags here. 

Logan Gilbert (+7000)

A former 14th overall draft pick, Logan Gilbert made his long-awaited MLB debut last summer at 24 years old. In his first 119.1 innings at the big league level, Gilbert posted a 4.68 ERA, 4.09 xERA, and a 3.73 FIP. However, there is clearly plenty more in the tank. In a 10-start span from June 13th to August 10th, Gilbert turned in a 3.66 ERA, 2.88 FIP, and a 29.5 strikeout percentage against a 5.3 percent walk-rate. Gilbert will need to improve his consistency in year 2, but elite command and 79th percentile fastball velocity make him a low-risk starter in this rotation. He is unlikely to win any individual accolades, which is why we see his odds are so long in this MLB futures market, but he should be very good in 2022.

Matt Brash

Local Seattle media has recently characterized Matt Brash’s breaking pitches as “wicked.” His fastball sits in the upper-90s. In five innings of Spring Training action, he has allowed no runs on only one hit and one walk. Brash is not a guarantee to be the fifth starter for the Mariners, but sooner or later–he is going to force his way into a meaningful role at the big league level, whether that is in relief or as a member of the rotation. One of the higher ranked prospects in baseball, it would not be surprising to see Brash make an immediate positive impact if entrusted with a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Mariners bullpen ranked 3rd in FIP (3.72), 8th in xFIP (4.18), 14th in strikeout percentage (24.0%), 3rd in walk-rate (8.3%), and 5th in WHIP (1.30). Seattle’s relief corps also limited opposing hitters to the 6th-lowest OPS in baseball.

In 2021, Paul Sewald ranked in the 99th percentile, striking-out 39.4 percent of opposing batters. Though his velocity ranked in only the low-90s, elite spin rates allowed him to rank in the 92nd percentile or better in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, and whiff percentage. Below average command and a history of not being much better than mediocre may lead to less chances to close games in 2022, but Sewald remains a valuable member of this bullpen as Seattle aims to make their first postseason appearance in over two decades. Similar to Sewald, Drew Steckenrider had never been much better than league average prior to last summer. Yet, in 67.2 innings of relief, Steckenrider posted a 2.00 ERA, 3.39 xERA, and a 3.35 FIP while ranking in the 72nd percentile or better in xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and walk-rate. Regression could be on the way in 2022, but his production is unlikely to fall too far if he can continue to limit hard contact. Ken Giles was one of many pitcher casualties that resulted from the pandemic, undergoing Tommy John surgery after only 3.2 innings of work in 2020. From 2014 to 2019, Giles posted a 2.67 ERA and a 2.37 FIP–the latter of which was 44 percent better than league average in that span. Manager Scott Servais has mentioned multiple times that this unit will not have an traditional closer, but things could change if Giles is back to full health. Last summer, Diego Castillo posted a career-best 32.2 strikeout percentage, which ranked in the 93rd percentile in baseball. He also ranked in the 92nd percentile or better in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and chase rate. Last year was Castillo’s third consecutive year posting an xERA in the 92nd percentile or better. He only strengthens an already strong bullpen in Seattle.

Erik Swanson could be the deciding factor as to whether this unit is elite or simply very good in 2022. Last year, Swanson posted a 0.47 ERA and a 3.12 FIP from April 13th to July 31st. He regressed to a 6.75 ERA and a 4.98 FIP from August 1st to October 3rd. Swanson has plus-velocity and plus-spin, but he will need to execute better than he did in the second half of 2021 if he wants to regain the trust of Servais to be utilized in high leverage situations. Andres Munoz was excellent in 23.0 innings when debuted with the San Diego Padres in 2019, recording a 3.91 ERA, 3.88 xERA, and a 3.17 FIP. Elbow surgery kept him out of baseball for all of 2020 and nearly all of 2021. He tops out at 101 miles-per-hour on his heater. If healthy, he could be a valuable weapon, with plenty of room for growth as a 23 year old. Anthony Misiewicz will likely handle lower leverage situations this summer. He possesses elite spin rates and good command, but an inability to limit hard contact remains his biggest vulnerability. Still, he is an outstanding seventh best option in a bullpen. In 2021, Sergio Romo’s fastball ranked in the 1st percentile in velocity, but failing to hit 90 miles-per-hour on a consistent basis did not hurt his overall production. Using a devastating slider as his primary pitch, Romo finished in the 91st percentile or better in average exit velocity for the fourth time in seven seasons. Even at 39 years old, Romo figures to be a worthwhile addition to this group–as both a pitcher and a veteran mentor to many younger arms.