Betting The NBA Playoffs: Sixers-Heat, Mavs-Suns Expert Picks & Predictions

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the Sixers vs. Heat and Mavs vs. Suns on Tuesday, May 10, 2022. Make sure to use our Caesars promo for a $1100 free bet!

Monday night was full of twists and turns. I would say we ran poorly in terms of injury luck, as Robert Williams was a surprise scratch and Steve Kerr had to miss the game due to health and safety protocols. As you know, I write these betting previews the night before each slate, so my picks were locked in well before any of this information came to light. 

Luckily, the Celtics were able to put together a huge fourth quarter (43-28) in one of the toughest road environments to pick up the win in Game 4. It was obviously nice to pick up a win against the spread, but it also helps the series bet that I had on the Celtics. If we can get through the second round with a few units of profit, I’ll feel good about our chances of ending the postseason in the green. Again, I decided to write this article series as a fun way to keep me (and many of you) engaged throughout the playoffs. Ending with a profit after betting on every single game and every single series would be a badge that I would wear with honor. 

Before I get to the Warriors, can we quickly talk about the absurd takes floating around Twitter that the Grizzlies are better without Ja Morant? Sure, the team has stepped up in his absence this season, but they wouldn’t have made it out of the first round without him. Now, I have never seen the Warriors play a worse game and come out on top. They were 2-for-20 from the three-point line in the first half. Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry, and Jordan Poole were a combined 20-for-57 (35%) from the field. They committed 16 turnovers. All of that and it only took one good quarter of basketball to win the game. 

Ultimately, 1-1 nights aren’t going to hurt us too much. We lose to the vig and live to fight another day. 

With that out of the way, let’s take a closer look at today’s NBA odds for the Sixers vs. Heat and Mavericks vs. Suns!

Free NBA Betting Picks For Today

Philadelphia Sixers at Miami Heat

Series: TIED 2-2

The Sixers are the team that I have gotten wrong the most so far in the playoffs. I picked them to lose in the first round against the Raptors and have routinely bet against them in individual games. To their credit, they picked up two huge wins at home to even this series at two games apiece. Through four games, the Heat have been much better on the glass and have taken better care of the ball, but the Sixers have really shot the ball well. They have a true shooting rate of 60%, which is the second highest of any team in the second round. 

Clearly, Joel Embiid has made a big impact on the series. The offense has really opened up with him in the lineup, but some of that has to do with the supporting cast playing a lot better in the two home games. Game 5 will be a tough test, as they find themselves back in the belly of the beast in Miami. During the regular season, the Heat were 29-12 at home. This was the best home record of any team in the Eastern Conference. 

Based on what I have said thus far, you can probably already guess where my pick is headed. The Heat tend to get good production from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in all games, but their role players are so much better in front of their home crowd. The market seems to be over-reacting to the last two games. I’ll take the home team that is better on the glass and better in the turnover department. It’s only a matter of time before their shots start to fall again. 

This might be my favorite bet so far in the second round. 

• ATS Pick: Miami -3, Caesars or BetRivers

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

Series: TIED 2-2

This has been by far my most profitable series of the playoffs. I bet on the Suns in Games 1 and 2 and bet on the Mavericks in Games 3 and 4. The Suns looked unstoppable at home and the Mavericks looked like a team with something to prove in their two home games. It’s never good when the refs are one of the biggest stories in the series, but hopefully that won’t be the case in the final three games. In terms of the overall stats, the Suns have dominated the glass while the Mavericks continue to rain three-pointers and take great care of the ball. 

If you have been following this article series, you know I have been calling for regression when it comes to the Mavericks. Their turnover rate in the playoffs is significantly lower than the best team in the NBA during the regular season. On top of that, they weren’t a team that relied heavily on the three-pointer during the regular season, yet they have made an average of 15.9 threes per game in the playoffs (by far the highest of any team). 

They say momentum in baseball goes as far as the next day’s starting pitcher. I say momentum in basketball goes as far as when the series shifts locations. The Suns should be able to feed off the energy of their home crowd and they will certainly get a better performance from Chris Paul than we’ve seen the last two games. The amazing play from the supporting cast of the Mavericks will likely shift to better play from the supporting cast of the Suns. 

• ATS Pick: Phoenix -6, PointsBet

I’ve been toying around with a new strategy when I like two favorites on the same slate. While it has been a very small sample size, it has worked wonders thus far. To check it out, sign up for premium content.