Betting The NBA Playoffs: Heat-Sixers, Suns-Mavs Expert Picks & Predictions

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the Sixers vs. Heat and Mavs vs. Suns on Thursday, May 12, 2022. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo for a $1000 free bet!

Much like the Warriors, I didn’t have my best stuff on Wednesday. The Celtics game went as I expected until the last few possessions of the game. The Bucks dominated the offensive rebounds in the fourth quarter, while the Celtics struggled to make shots and made some bone-headed plays down the stretch. All the credit goes to the defending champions, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday played so well down the stretch on both ends of the floor. 

The Warriors have now looked out of sorts in seven of the last eight quarters. I looked at Game 5 the completely wrong way – I saw that the Warriors were able to win with a poor performance in Game 4, but I should have seen that the Warriors were lucky to get out of there with a win. Their execution is clearly lacking without Steve Kerr on the bench. Turnovers and bad shots took them out of the game early and they showed no interest in fighting back in the second half. 

It never feels good to get swept, but we have to accept the bad with the good. It’s honestly remarkable that we have bet on 62 games against the spread so far in the playoffs and have broken even to the penny. I haven’t seen Gladiator in 15 years, but “are you not entertained?”

With that out of the way, let’s take a closer look at today’s NBA odds!

Free NBA Betting Picks For Today

Miami Heat at Philadelphia Sixers

Series: MIA 3-2

It’s been a story of home cooking for both of the series on the schedule tonight. The road team has yet to win in either series. The Heat have blown out the Sixers in all three of their home games and the Sixers have easily beaten the Heat in their two home games. Philadelphia is now on the brink of elimination, but the good news is that this is another home game. A win tonight and we have ourselves the first Game 7 of the playoffs. 

If we look at the series statistics as a whole, the Heat have had the edge on the glass and in the turnover department. The Sixers have shot the ball better, but that gap really narrowed after Game 5. This is a tough one. On the one hand, I view the Heat as a much better team overall. They seem to flow a little better with Kyle Lowry off the floor and he has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. They also have the best player on the floor in Jimmy Butler. 

On the other hand, the Sixers seem to put up their best performances when they have needed them the most. They were in real danger of facing a Game 7 in the first round against the Raptors, but they went into Toronto and closed out the series. They needed both home games in this series and they responded with two wins. When in doubt, I like to bet on the home team. It also allows me to cheer for a Game 7, which is really all I want in life. 

• ATS Pick: Philadelphia -2, Caesars

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks

Series: PHO 3-2

This series has essentially followed the blueprint of the Heat and Sixers series. The Suns looked dominant in their first two home games and easily took care of business in Game 5 at home. The Mavericks fought back once they got to Dallas and won their two home games by a significant margin. They now face elimination, but also have the chance to force a winner-take-all Game 7 back in Phoenix.

If we look at the statistics from the series, the Suns have dominated the glass and have led all teams in the second round with a true shooting rate of 61%. The Mavericks have done a nice job of taking care of the ball and they have continued to live or die by the three-pointer. Teams tend to get better looks from the three-point line at home and role players tend to shoot the ball with a little more confidence in front of their home crowd. 

Perhaps this is me betting on what I want to happen instead of what I think will happen, but I am seriously itching for a Game 7. There is nothing else like it in sports. We were deprived of a Game 7 in the first round and clearly deserve at least a couple in the second round. I don’t have a strong reason as to why I am picking Dallas, but I’ll play the home cooking narrative. 

• ATS Pick: Dallas +2, PointsBet