St. Louis Cardinals Futures Odds and 2022 Pitching Outlook

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida looks at the St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation and MLB futures odds ahead of Opening Day. Make sure to claim $1000 free bet at BetMGM Sportsbook.

St. Louis Cardinals Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 84.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +6500
• Division Winner: +240
• To Make the Playoffs: -100
• National League Winner: +1600
• World Series Champion: +3500

St. Louis Cardinals Pitching Preview

Adam Wainwright (+8000)

Adam Wainwright’s profile does not seem to be a particularly strong fit for modern baseball. He ranked in only the 30th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 3rd percentile in fastball velocity in 2021. Yet, he managed to finish in the 64th percentile in average exit velocity, 63rd percentile in xwOBA, and the 63rd percentile in xERA. Elite command and the absence of any poor offerings give Wainwright one of the safest floors in the big-leagues. His primary pitch, the curveball, held opposing hitters to a .253 wOBA last summer. His second-most used offering, the sinker, was even better–holding opposing batters to a .228 wOBA. He is not sexy, but he gets the job done. Factor in relatively equal home and away splits, plus relatively equal splits against right- and left-handed batters, and it becomes hard to see where anything could go too terribly wrong in 2022. Wainwright enters Opening Day with +8000 Cy Young odds at BetMGM

Miles Mikolas (+20000)

Miles Mikolas did not pitch at all in 2020, and was limited to only 44.2 innings of work in 2021 as he tried to return to full health following elbow surgery. The early returns were not overly promising–a 4.23 ERA, 4.57 xERA, and a 4.40 FIP. Outside of his strong 2018 season with the Cardinals, Mikolas has never posted better than a 4.16 ERA or a 4.27 FIP in a campaign in which he tossed more than 32.1 innings. Injury concerns continue to be hard to ignore as well. Only twice since 2012 has Mikoals totaled more than 57.1 innings in a single year. He has the benefit of an elite defense playing behind him, but uninspiring swing-and-miss stuff coupled with a lack of availability make Mikolas a difficult pitcher to be optimistic about heading into Opening Day.

Steven Matz (+15000)

Steven Matz finished 2021 with a 3.82 ERA, 4.09 xERA, and a 3.79 FIP, but the path to those end of year numbers was anything but linear. Matz posted a 4.22 ERA and a 3.51 FIP across 11 starts in April and May, followed by a 6.48 ERA and a 6.17 FIP in four subsequent starts heading into the All-Star break. Then, Matz dazzled with a 2.91 ERA and a 3.48 FIP across his last 14 turns in the rotation, during which he allowed two runs or less in 12 outings. Baseball Prospectus noted a shift in Matz’s release point coming out of the mid-summer break, which could be an indicator that Matz’s second-half performance is more indicative of how his 2022 will unfold. At his worst, Matz still figures to be a capable middle-of-the-rotation arm. However, the ceiling is undeniably high for the former second round draft pick. We could be witnessing a late-bloomer at the MLB level.

Dakota Hudson

Arguably no pitcher on this starting staff will be more reliant on his defense than Dakota Hudson in 2022. Hudson returned from Tommy John surgery for 8.2 innings of work in 2021–posting a 2.08 ERA, 2.02 xERA, and a 2.48 FIP. However, both of those outings came against a Chicago Cubs lineup that was only barely a part of the major-leagues last fall. Hudson has never punched-out more than 20.5 percent of opposing batters, and command issues remain a salient issue for the former first round draft pick. Hudson does not induce much weak contact, has mediocre velocity, and has poor spin rates. He is an okay option at the backend of this unit, but is unlikely to do much to impress anyone in 2022.

Jordan Hicks

After saving 20 games for the St. Louis Cardinals across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, Jordan Hicks missed all of 2020 before returning in 2021 to deliver a 5.40 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and a 4.17 FIP. Somewhat surprisingly, Hicks will begin 2022 in the rotation, rather than at the backend of the bullpen. Hicks is reported to be on a pitch limit to begin the year, but is “a starter-in-the-making” per Manager Oliver Marmol. Nearly three years removed from his peak, it will be interesting to see if Hicks can thrive in a new role. At his best, he is one of the hardest-throwing, more talented arms in the big-leagues. 

Bullpen

In 2021, the Cardinals bullpen ranked 8th in FIP (4.04), 24th in xFIP (4.65), 20th in strikeout percentage (23.0%), 30th in walk-rate (11.8%), and 17th in WHIP (1.32).