Cardinals vs. Reds (4/22/22): Odds, Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Cardinals vs. Reds odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick for today’s game. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance!

Cardinals vs. Reds Odds

Tonight, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds will begin a weekend set at Great American Ball Park. Entering play, St. Louis is tied for first place in the National League Central division standings with the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati finds themselves already six games behind the class of the division after suffering 11 losses in their first 13 contests. On Friday, the Cardinals will hand the ball to Steven Matz to start the game, who will be opposed by Hunter Greene. MLB Oddsmakers anticipate the Cardinals coming away with a victory in the series opener this evening, pricing them as -125 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals

From 2017 to 2020, Steven Matz struggled to a 4.83 ERA and a 4.92 FIP with the New York Mets. A change of scenery in 2021 resulted in a 3.82 ERA and a 3.79 FIP–his best numbers since his sophomore campaign in 2016. A reported change in his release point during the second half of the 2022 campaign paid enormous dividends, as Matz posted a 2.69 ERA and a 3.44 FIP in his final 11 turns through the rotation for the Toronto Blue Jays. A flyball pitcher, Matz is not particularly well-equipped for success at Great American Ball Park, but he does draw a matchup with an anemic Cincinnati lineup in this one.

Against right-handed pitching in 2021, St. Louis ranked 21th in OPS, 25th in ISO, 25th in walk rate, 6th in strikeout percentage, and 17th in wRC+ at the plate. The early returns in 2022 suggest that this lineup will once again be worse than league average against right-handed pitching. Despite the presence of big names, such as Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, St. Louis ranks only 22nd in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 15th in walk-rate, 2nd in strikeout percentage, and 21st in wRC+ against righties so far in 2022. 

Giovanny Gallegos pitched on both Tuesday and Wednesday, but no other member of the St. Louis arm barn has appeared in more than one game since Monday. Manager Oliver Marmol should have all of his late inning weapons available as needed on Friday.

Cincinnati Reds

Hunter Greene is a former number two overall draft selection, who was once dubbed “Baseball’s LeBron” by Sports Illustrated, per Baseball Prospectus. Tommy John surgery kept him from playing competitive baseball in 2019 and 2020, but Greene reasserted himself as one of the top prospects in baseball with a strong 2021 in the minor leagues. Inserted into the starting rotation for the Reds to begin 2022, Greene has impressed with a 31.0 strikeout percentage and a 4.8 percent walk-rate through his first two starts. He has been nearly unhittable in his first time through the order, posting a 0.62 FIP, but that number balloons to a 5.06 FIP in his second time through the lineup, and a ghastly 27.06 FIP the third time through the order. Greene draws a favorable matchup on Friday against a St. Louis offense that struggles against right-handed pitching.

Against left-handed pitching so far this season, the Reds rank 24th in OPS, 23rd in ISO, 24th in walk-rate, 27th in strikeout percentage, and 25th in wRC+. Cincinnati has finally taken Tyler Naquin out of the lineup against southpaws, but the results have still been less than stellar. Most recently, the Reds were shutout by MacKenzie Gore on Wednesday and held to one run against Sean Manaea on Monday. Stacking Kyle Farmer, Brandon Drury, and Tommy Pham at the top of the lineup against lefties is yet to lead to much success.  

The Reds did not play on Thursday, which enabled them to give their entire bullpen some much-needed rest heading into the weekend. Only Hunter Strickland has thrown more than 23 pitches since Monday for this unit. Manager David Bell should have everyone available as needed this evening. 

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

The Cardinals rank 21st in OPS against right-handed pitching, and the Reds rank 24th in OPS against left-handed pitching so far in 2022. Hunter Greene has been excellent his first time through the order this season. Great American Ball Park is an extremely hitter-friendly venue, but a slight wind blowing in toward home plate could save one or two balls from going over the wall in this one. Bettors could be getting some value on the under in this spot for the first five innings. Do not bet the house, but the data supports a low-scoring start to this ballgame.

• PICK: Under 4.5 – First 5 Innings (-122), FanDuel