St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins (4/19/22): Odds, Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Cardinals vs. Marlins odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick for today’s game. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance!

Cardinals vs. Marins Odds

Tonight, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins will begin a three-game set at LoanDepot park. Entering play, the Cardinals are 5-3 and tied for first place in the National League Central division. The Marlins are only 4-5 overall, but remain in second place in the National League East standings. On Tuesday, St. Louis will hand the ball to Adam Wainwright, who will be opposed by Jesus Luzardo. MLB Oddsmakers anticipate the Cardinals coming away with a victory in the series opener this evening, pricing them as -110 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals

Adam Wainwright is far from overpowering on the bump, but he remains one of baseball’s more dependable rotation pieces, with the worst season of his storied career resulting in a 4.36 FIP. In 2021, Wainwright finished the year with a 3.05 ERA, 3.84 xERA, and a 3.66 FIP. He owns a 3.48 ERA, 4.08 xERA, and a 2.42 FIP through his first two turns in the rotation to begin 2022. Although the veteran hurler exhibited some unfriendly home/away splits last season, the difference in production is hardly catastrophic. Wainwright’s 4.22 FIP when pitching away from Busch Stadium last season still put the Cardinals in position to win nearly every time he took the mound. In fact, Wainwright has won his last eight decisions when pitching on the road.

Against left-handed pitching, in 2021, St. Louis ranked 2nd in OPS, 1st in ISO, 17th in walk rate, 17th in strikeout percentage, and 3rd in wRC+ at the plate. This lineup is off to a hot start against southpaws again in 2022, ranking 1st in OPS, 1st in ISO, 24th in walk-rate, 13th in strikeout percentage, and 3rd in wRC+ in 72 plate appearances. Part of their success stems from the fact that Manager Oliver Marmol has the ability to stack nine right-handed hitters in the order on any given day. Expect the Cardinals’ bats to put on a good show again this evening.

St. Louis had a much-needed off-day on Monday, which enabled them to reset their bullpen usage. Nobody in this unit has appeared more than once or thrown more than 31 pitches in the last three days. Everyone should be available as needed on Tuesday.

Miami Marlins

A former heralded prospect, Jesus Luzardo has floundered to a 5.25 ERA and a 4.64 FIP in his first 171.1 innings at the big-league level. Following a demotion to AAA last summer, Luzardo returned to the major-leagues to post a 6.44 ERA and a 5.07 FIP across his final 12 starts. As has been a theme throughout his career, he struggled mightily against right-handed hitters to the tune of a 6.07 FIP, 21.9 strikeout percentage, 11.1 percent walk-rate, and a 1.67 WHIP. A 12-strikeout performance in his 2022 debut turned a few heads, but bettors are likely to need more than one game before they allow themselves to trust the unproven left-hander. If there is any reason to be optimistic, Luzardo used his curveball for exactly half of his offerings in his season debut–a 21.4 percent increase in usage compared to 2021. Luzardo’s curveball was undeniably his best pitch last year, holding opposing hitters to a .260 wOBA.

Against right-handed pitching, in 2021, the Marlins ranked 29th in OPS, 28th in ISO, 27th in walk-rate, 28th in strikeout percentage, and 25th in wRC+ at the dish. However, offseason additions via free agency seem to have paid dividends in the early portion of 2022. Through 221 plate appearances in the new year, Miami ranks 9th in OPS, 7th in ISO, 16th in walk-rate, 10th in strikeout percentage, and 8th in wRC+. This group is capable of putting some runs on the board this evening.   

Similar to the Cardinals, the Marlins had yesterday off, which allowed them to rest all of their relievers. Anthony Bender, Anthony Bass, Steven Okert, and other top options should all be available in this one.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

There are clear indicators that Luzardo’s change in pitch usage will yield exponential growth in his numbers this season. Still, this is a difficult matchup against baseball’s top lineup when facing left-handed pitching. Combine this with Wainwright’s struggles on the road, and there should be a healthy amount of run-scoring opportunities today in South Florida. Take the over.

• PICK: Game Total Over 7.5 Runs (-110), Caesars