2022 Steelers Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

The Pittsburgh Steelers return Head Coach Mike Tomlin for his 16th season, but for the first time since 2003, Ben Roethlisberger will not be the starting quarterback for this franchise. Following a 9-7-1 regular season record in Roethlisberger’s final year, Pittsburgh has named Mitch Trubisky the starting signal caller, and handed him the keys to the offense.

Though Roethlisberger had a Hall of Fame caliber career, his final few seasons were far from elite. His weak arm and lack of mobility were problematic, especially playing behind a poor offensive line in 2021. It will be hard to regress at the quarterback position, regardless of whether Trubisky starts all 17 games, or if Kenny Pickett earns his way into the starting role at some point this fall.

Let’s take a look at the revamped Pittsburgh roster to see how they should be perceived heading into 2022.

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Quarterback

Depth Chart: Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, Chris Oladokun

Trubisky threw only eight pass attempts in 2021, playing behind MVP-candidate Josh Allen with the Buffalo Bills. It was his first season as a professional in which he threw less than 297 pass attempts, following four years in which he was the primary starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears.

During the preseason, Head Coach Mike Tomlin frequently mentioned the advantages of having a mobile quarterback, which made it all but a sure thing that Trubisky would be the Opening Day starter for Pittsburgh. Trubisky has his limitations, which is what led to his uncomfortable exit from Chicago. However, he was also good enough to take the Bears to the playoffs in two of his first four seasons – making him far from a liability under center.

Nobody should expect stardom from the veteran signal caller, but Trubisky has an opportunity to be a competent game manager who should make the Steelers competitive on a weekly basis. He was always the correct choice to win this job to begin 2022.

Running Back

Depth Chart: Najee Harris, Benny Snell Jr., Anthony McFarland Jr., Trey Edmunds

Lacking a strong option at quarterback last year, Pittsburgh handed the ball to Najee Harris 307 times. Running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, Harris still managed 1,200 rushing yards, but his 3.9 yards-per-carry ranked only 38th among qualified rushers. Harris is also a threat out of the backfield, where he caught 74-of-94 targets in 2021 for 467 yards and three touchdowns. He figures to be the center of Pittsburgh’s offensive attack again this fall. 

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth

Diontae Johnson has improved each year since entering the league in 2019. As a rookie, he caught 59 passes for 680 yards, then caught 88 balls for 923 yards as a sophomore, before breaking-out as a star in 2021, with 107 receptions, 1,161 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. After Juju Smith-Schuster left town during the offseason, there was little doubt that Johnson would be the number one pass-catching option in the air attack in 2022.

Beyond Johnson, there is a lack of proven talent. Chase Claypool got off to a blistering start last year, but had less than 53 receiving yards in nine of his final 12 contests. Public comments surrounding his work ethic surfaced during the latter portion of the year, and the rumors did not go away after he had only 12 receiving yards against the Tennessee Titans.

Pat Freiermuth has the potential to have a big year for this group. As a rookie, he hauled in 60 receptions for 497 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on only 79 targets. The former second round pick out of Penn State does not offer much help as a run-blocker, but he could take another step forward as a pass-catcher in 2022 to solidify himself as one of the better tight-ends in the NFL.

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Dan Moore Jr., Kevin Dotson, Mason Cole, James Daniels, Chukwuma Okorafor

Per Clevta, Pittsburgh’s offensive line has finished 32nd and 28th in adjusted line yards the last two seasons. During the offseason, Mason Cole was signed via free agency, following a one year stint with the Minnesota Vikings. A former third-round pick, Cole has never been strong in pass protection, but has steadily improved as a run-blocker. There is optimism that Cole’s best days are still ahead of him. The front office also added James Daniels during free agency to play right guard. Daniels was a second round pick out of Iowa in 2018, and has performed well both as a pass- and run-blocker in his four years in the NFL. He is a major upgrade at his position compared to 2021.

Still, Dan Moore Jr. Kevin Dotson, and Chukwuma Okorafor are major concerns for this group. Dotson offers upside as a pass-blocker, but Moore Jr. and Okorafor have failed to impress in any area of the game during the early portion of their respective careers. A mobile quarterback should help mitigate some blocking concerns, at least relative to past years with Roethlisberger, but this is nonetheless a unit that projects poorly for this upcoming season.

Base 3-4 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Larry Ogunjobi, Tyson Alualu, Cameron Heyward

Cameron Heyward is a bonafide star, but he is one of only a few bright spots on the defensive side of the ball for the Steelers. On the defensive line, Larry Ogunjobi, and Tyson Alualu have consistently graded as two of the worst players at their position. Pittsburgh could be vulnerable on the ground once again, only one year after finishing last in the league in percentage of runs allowed to go for 10-plus yards. 

Linebackers

Depth Chart: T.J. Watt, Devin Bush, Myles Jack, Alex Highsmith 

Whereas stopping the run could be an issue for the Steelers, getting after the quarterback should not be. T.J. Watt delivered an incredulous 22.5 sacks by himself in 2021, with Cameron Heyward added an additional 10 sacks, and Alex Highsmith finishing with seven quarterback takedowns. Watt is poised for another sensational season after posting four consecutive years with at least 13 sacks. Highsmith does not offer the same elite upside as Watt, but is above average both as a pass-rusher and against the run – making him a valuable member of the linebacker corps. 

The larger concern for this group centers around former first round draft pick Devin Bush. Bush was selected 10th overall out of Michigan, but nobody would know that by looking at his production during his first three years in the NFL. He has never recorded more than two sacks and has never been effective in stopping the run. Myles Jack has been similarly disappointing in recent seasons in both areas of the game. The Steelers will need at least one of Bush or Jack to take a major step forward in 2022 if this defense wants to make life difficult on opposing offenses.

Secondary

Depth Chart: Ahkello Witherspoon, Terrell Edmunds, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Cameron Sutton

Pittsburgh has one of the most seasoned secondary units in the league, but experience is not necessarily synonymous with talent. Other than Minkah Fitzpatrick, there is not a single defensive back on this roster with elite upside. Even Fitzpatrick is far from a guarantee to have a productive year, following a 2021 campaign during which he graded 89th out of 93 safeties in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. 

Ahkello Witherspoon has improved dramatically compared to early in his career, but is still vulnerable out-wide against some of the better receivers in the game. He will be tested immediately this fall, with the Cincinnati Bengals on tap for Week 1. Terrell Edmunds was drafted in the first round out of Virgina in 2018, but has been underwhelming during his first four seasons. He has a high floor, but his ceiling is seemingly nowhere near as high as expected when he entered the league. Cameron Sutton is a versatile option who can play in the slot or out wide, but it remains to be seen if Pittsburgh wants him on the field at all. He was a liability more than he was an asset in 2021.

2022 Outlook

Tomlin has led the Steelers to at least eight wins in 15 consecutive seasons, which includes the 2019 campaign when he had Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges under center for the majority of the schedule. Still, there is a first time for everything, and 2022 could be the year that Tomlin records less than eight wins for the first time in the Steel City.

A likely midseason quarterback transition from Trubisky to Pickett does not scream upside. Further, the Steelers will have only one “should-win” game on their schedule following a Week 9 bye. The Steelers could have trouble breaking into the win column at all after Halloween, with a schedule that features likely playoff contenders such as the New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Cleveland Browns. Unless Trubisky surprises with a sensational season, the under on Pittsburgh’s win total appears to be a good look.

PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers u7.5 wins (+100)