2022 Tampa Bay Rays Futures Odds and MLB Predictions
Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Tampa Bay Rays futures odds ahead of Opening Day. Claim $1100 free bet insurance with our Caesars promo!
Tampa Bay Rays Futures Odds
- Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 89.5 Wins (-106)
- Best Regular Season Record: +1500
- Division Winner: +320
- To Make the Playoffs: -200
- American League Winner: +750
- World Series Champion: +1700
Each of the last three seasons, the Tampa Bay Rays have posted a .593 winning percentage or better, with last season being the first 100-win campaign in franchise history. Mid-season acquisition Nelson Cruz helped shore up what was otherwise an abysmal offense against left-handed pitching, but departed for the National League this winter. Staff ace, Tyler Glasnow, is likely to miss all of the 2022 season after suffering a torn UCL last summer. Despite the salient question marks, there is more than enough upside in the lineup against right-handed pitching to support what could be a vulnerable starting rotation. The bullpen once again figures to be great. Let’s take a look at the roster in more detail before projecting their outlook on the futures market.
Lineup Preview
| Name | Pos. | GP 2021 | wRC+ v. LHP | wRC+ v. RHP | K% | BB% | UZR/ 150 |
| Mike Zunino | C | 109 | 243 | 77 | 35.2% | 9.1% | – |
| Ji-Man Choi | 1B | 83 | 54 | 139 | 28.5% | 14.8% | -3.1 |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 149 | 83 | 161 | 27.2% | 11.1% | -2.1 |
| Yandy Díaz | 3B | 134 | 126 | 101 | 15.7% | 12.8% | -3.0 |
| Wander Franco | SS | 70 | 181 | 96 | 12.0% | 7.8% | 1.1 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | CF | 122 | 94 | 104 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 12.1 |
| Randy Arozarena | RF | 141 | 153 | 112 | 28.1% | 9.3% | 9.1 |
| Austin Meadows | LF | 142 | 61 | 137 | 20.6% | 10.0% | -117.8 |
| Manuel Margot | DH | 125 | 112 | 81 | 15.1% | 8.0% | 3.7 |
| Brett Phillips | UTIL | 119 | 13 | 138 | 38.7% | 11.3% | 9.0 |
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Tampa Bay ranked 13th in OPS, 11th in ISO, 28th in strikeout percentage, 8th in walk rate, and 7th in wRC+. Facing right-handed pitching, the Rays ranked 8th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 22nd in strikeout percentage, 5th in walk rate, and 3rd in wRC+.
Ji-Man Choi’s story is best told in two parts. Against right-handed pitching in 2021, he hit 11 home runs and posted an .843 OPS. Against left-handed pitching, he hit zero home runs, struck-out in 38.5 percent of his plate appearances, and turned in an abysmal .526 OPS. Choi is an excellent first base option as the strong side of a platoon, but he is unplayable against southpaws.
Kevin Kiermaier ranked in the 17th percentile or worse last season in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and whiff-rate. Tampa Bay was just glad that he ranked in the 98th percentile in outs above average at his position in center field. Kiermaier is a below average hitter, and that does not appear to be changing in the near future.
Manuel Margot is the ideal complement to Austin Meadows as a platoon partner in the corner outfield. Margot has a career OPS nearly .100 points higher against southpaws than he does against right-handed pitching. His 99th percentile defense and 87th percentile strikeout percentage are valuable assets that will keep him useful for years to come in Tampa Bay–though probably not in an everyday role.
Similar to Margot, Brett Phillips is an elite defender who lacks the bat skills to fill an everyday role for the Rays. In 292 plate appearances in 2021, Phillips posted a ghastly 38.7 strikeout percentage overall, including a 48.8 strikeout percentage against southpaws. He owned an .870 OPS against right-handed pitching, but an unplayable .372 OPS against southpaws. His role is clearly defined for this organization.
Rays MVP Odds
Wander Franco (+2000)
Signed to an 11-year $182 million contract, Wander Franco will keep the Rays a viable franchise for the foreseeable future. As a rookie, he was already one of the best hitters in baseball. He reached base in 43 consecutive games at one point en route to an end of season .810 OPS. He was significantly better against left-handed pitching than against right-handed pitching, posting a 1.020 OPS against the former, and a .696 OPS against the latter. From July 29th until the end of the regular season, Franco walked more than he struck out. It is scary to think that he is only 21 years old. If you’re perusing MLB futures odds, Franco is likely one or two years away from developing the necessary power to contend for an MVP award, but his future is undeniably bright.
Alvarez’s AL Most Valuable Player odds are +2200 on PointsBet Sportsbook, but you can get +2500 odds at BetMGM.
Brandon Lowe (+3500)
Though he is under 6’0’’ and lighter than 200 pounds, Brandon Lowe is undeniably one of the best pound-for-pound power hitters in baseball. Since the beginning of the 2018 campaign, Lowe owns a .263 ISO and has hit 76 home runs in only 330 games played. If healthy, Lowe is nearly guaranteed to hit 30 home runs again, despite playing half of his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in all of baseball. A 15th percentile strikeout rate limits his MVP potential, but he is more than worth the $4.0 million average salary he is receiving from Tampa Bay on a contract that has club options through 2026.
Randy Arozarena (+7500)
Randy Arozarena followed up a historic 2020 postseason with an above average regular season in 2021. He ranked in only the 9th percentile in strikeout rate, but a palatable walk-rate and 75th percentile defense made him a solid contributor. It is worth mentioning that Arozarena benefited from a .363 BABIP in 2021, despite ranking in only the 64th percentile in average exit velocity. His 2020 playoff heroics will live forever, but he will need to improve his contact and plate discipline in 2022 if he wants to remain an above average regular going forward.
Austin Meadows (+10000)
Austin Meadows looked like an MVP candidate in 2019, hitting 33 home runs with a .922 OPS in 138 games played. Then, he hit only 4 home runs with a .667 OPS in 2020. In 2021, Meadows hit 27 home runs and posted a .772 OPS while ranking better than league average in both strikeout- and walk-rate. Meadows owns a career .875 OPS against right-handed pitching, but only a .707 OPS against southpaws. Continued struggles against the latter could see him relegated to more of a platoon role in 2022, especially if he remains deficient against offspeed offerings and breaking pitches.
Yandy Diaz (+15000)
In 2021, Yandy Diaz ranked in the 99th percentile in muscles for the fifth consecutive season. Yet, despite massive biceps, he remains woefully deficient of power at the plate. Having never hit more than 14 home runs in a single campaign, Diaz’s MLB career is nevertheless safely supported by a mature approach at the plate. Last summer, Diaz ranked in the 90th percentile in walk rate and the 83rd percentile in strikeout percentage. Rarely, does he get himself out at the dish. Entering his sixth big league season, Diaz is what he is at this point–an above average bat against both left- and right-handed pitching, who will play decent defense at both corner infield positions. He will not win any individual accolades, but the Rays still appreciate his presence.
Mike Zunino (+25000)
In his age-30 season, Mike Zunino exploded for a career high 33 home runs thanks to a career-high .342 ISO. Even more impressive, Zunino hit 33 home runs in only 109 games, outpacing both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani in home runs per at-bat, according to Baseball Prospectus. Still, he struck-out in 35.2 percent of his plate-appearances, illustrating that it was all-or-nothing in 2022. This has been a similar theme throughout Zunino’s career. He has struck-out in fewer than a third of his plate appearances since his rookie year in 2013 with the Seattle Mariners. Further limiting his potential growth, Zunino posted a dreadful. .285 wOBA against breaking pitches in 2021, and has consistently struggled to hit right-handed pitching in recent seasons.