Tampa Rays Pitching Outlook: Don’t Bet McCLanahan’s Cy Young Odds

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Tampa Bay Rays futures odds ahead of Opening Day. Claim a $1000 free bet with our BetMGM offer!

Tampa Bay Rays Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 89.5 Wins (-106)
• Best Regular Season Record: +1500
• Division Winner: +320
• To Make the Playoffs: -200
• American League Winner: +750
• World Series Champion: +1700

Tampa Bay Rays 2022 Starting Rotation

Rays Cy Young Odds

Shane McClanahan (+2500)

Simply, Shane McClanahan has no business in this price range on the futures market to win the American League Cy Young in 2022. Though McClanahan impressed in his first full season at the big league level, there were clear signs of youth. McClanahan ranked in the 31st percentile in xwOBA and only the 2nd percentile in average exit velocity. He struggled to miss the center of many bats, ranking in only the 10th percentile in barrel rate. His 3.43 ERA was over a full run higher than his 4.60 xERA thanks to some strong defense behind him. Still, he is only 25 years old and more than capable of learning how to generate weaker contact. The main reason McClanahan stands little chance of winning hardware this fall is due to volume. Having a history of arm injuries, Manager Kevin Cash only let McClanahan go record more than 15 outs in nine of his 25 starts, per Baseball Prospectus. Only four times did McClanahan throw more than 90 pitches. An ace-in-the-making, McClanahan is not quite there just yet.

McClanahan’s AL Cy Young odds are +1600 on DraftKings but you can get +2500 at Caesars.

Corey Kluber (+10000)

From 2015 to 2018, Corey Kluber was arguably the most dominant and reliable starter in all of baseball, totaling 126 starts, a 2.96 ERA, and a 2.97 FIP across four seasons. He struck-out 28.5 percent, and walked only 5.1 percent of hitters who he faced in that time period. Injuries limited the former Cy Young award winner to a combined 36.2 innings of work across the subsequent two years. In 2021, he signed with the New York Yankees, where he made 16 starts–posting a 3.83 ERA, 4.04 xERA, and a 3.85 FIP. He is still a master when it comes to generating weak contact, ranking in the 84th percentile in average exit velocity. However, a career-worst walk-rate and a diminishing ability to put hitters away with two strikes both portend continued regression as he enters his age-36 campaign. If there is one organization in the MLB capable of forestalling the inevitable fall off of the cliff for one more year, it’s the Rays–but the end will come sooner rather than later for Kluber.

Ryan Yarbrough

Ryan Yarbrough was mostly ineffective last summer, ranking in the 35th percentile in both xwOBA and xERA. He was once again adept at limiting hard-contact, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity. However, this is a case where average exit velocity does not tell the entire story, considering that Yarbrough gave up 25 long balls in 2021–more than his previous two seasons combined. Declining velocity on a cutter that was already below 85 miles-per-hour resulted in a career-worst strikeout percentage. His curveball and his changeup are still better than league average, but it is worth wondering if he will be able to return to his 2019 form without rediscovering his lost oomph on his harder offerings. Once thought of as a dynamic bulk inning reliever capable of turning the lineup over twice, Yarbrough’s future looks bleak.

Drew Rasmussen (+15000)

In 2021, Drew Rasmussen was excellent across 76.0 innings of work, posting a 2.84 ERA, 3.65 xERA, and a 3.09 FIP. However, he was significantly less excellent as a starter than he was as a reliever–sort of. Coming out of the bullpen Rasmussen turned in a 29.4 strikeout percentage, but had an alarmingly-high 11.8 percent walk-rate. As a member of the rotation, Rasmussen’s strikeout percentage plummeted to 18.2 percent, but his walk-rate improved to 4.5 percent, and he nearly cut his WHIP in half. Featuring primarily a two-pitch mix of a fastball and a slider, his profile seems better suited for the arm barn, but it is hard to argue that he is not deserving of being a starter, considering his 2.96 FIP in 42.0 innings as one last year. Time will reveal where Rasmussen ultimately ends up on this Rays roster.

Luis Patino

Per Adam Berry of MLB.com, Luis Patino will not be fully stretched out to begin the campaign after shoulder soreness slowed his ramp-up activity in Spring Training. Nonetheless, Shane Baz undergoing surgery means that Patino will get the first crack at the fifth spot in this rotation in 2022. Last summer, Patino posted a 4.31 ERA, 4.33 xERA, and a 4.51 FIP across 77.1 innings of work. He ranked in only the 25th percentile in average exit velocity and the 40th percentile in xwOBA, but that was largely due to his struggle against opposite-handed hitters. Patino posted a strong 28.1 strikeout percentage against a 4.3 percent walk-rate when facing righties–resulting in a 3.53 FIP. However, lefties struck-out only 14.9 percent of the time against Patino, and the inability to limit free passses in such situations translated to a 6.04 FIP. Patino is still only 22 years with more than enough time to work on developing a pitch to help him neutralize left-handed hitters. If he can do that, he has front-of-the-rotation potential. 

Bullpen

In 2021, the Rays bullpen ranked 1st in FIP (3.59), 4th in xFIP (3.98), 9th in strikeout percentage (25.6%), 2nd in walk-rate (7.6%), and 2nd in WHIP (1.30). 

Outside of Tampa Bay, few people probably recognize the name Andrew Kittredge, but they should. In 2021, he ranked in the 88th percentile in xwOBA and the 88th percentile in xERA. He combines 78th percentile velocity with 

elite spin rates and elite command to generate more swings-and-misses than almost any pitcher in baseball. His fastball and slider both held opposing hitters to a .229 wOBA or lower last season. Assuming he can stay healthy, he will once again be a dynamic presence in the late innings for Kevin Cash.

When Brooks Raley debuted with the Chicago Cubs, he posted a 7.04 ERA and a 6.21 FIP across his first 38.1 innings spanning the 2012 and 2013 seasons. Since returning from a five year run in the KBO, Raley has been far better, with a 4.83 ERA and a 3.47 FIP. His high ERA from 2021 is incredibly misleading when considering that he ranked in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity and the 65th percentile in wOBA. Elite spin rates resulted in a 31.7 strikeout percentage and an 87th percentile whiff-rate. In the off-season Tampa Bay gave Raley a two-year deal, further supporting the idea that they believe the best is yet to come for the traveled veteran.

A failed starting pitching prospect, Matt Wisler seems to have found a home in the late innings with a low-80s slider that hitters cannot seem to figure out. Across his last 74.0 innings of work spanning two seasons, Wisler owns a 2.80 ERA and a 3.10 FIP, not to mention a 32.1 strikeout percentage. Throwing one pitch over 90 percent of the time is something that rarely works over the course of a full 162 game season, but he is likely to stick with the strategy until the results dictate otherwise.

JT Chargois is good, but not great. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, he owns a 3.52 ERA and a 3.89 FIP. In 2021, he ranked in the 67th percentile in xwOBA, but only the 39th percentile in average exit velocity, and the 35th percentile in walk-rate. He has upper-90s velocity with his fastball, but a limited arsenal limits his ceiling to middle relief.

J.P. Feyereisen makes for an interesting case study. Acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Willy Adames, Feyereisen posted a 2.45 ERA and a 4.23 FIP in 36.2 innings for the Rays. He has elite spin on his fastball, but a 4th percentile walk-rate is likely to keep him from many high leverage situations in 2022. Still, he has a plus-slider that he uses to neutralize right-handed hitters and a plus-changeup that he uses to neutralize left-handed hitters. If he can ever figure out better command, he could approach the elite tier of late inning arms in the MLB.

Jalen Beeks did not pitch in 2021 while he recovered from Tommy John Surgery. Prior to his season-ending injury in 2020, he had a 3.26 ERA, 2.62 xERA, and a 1.79 FIP. His inclusion on the Opening Day roster says a lot about the value the Rays anticipate him bringing to this unit in 2022.

Jeffrey Springs threw only 44.2 innings in 2021, but he made the most of them–posting a 3.43 ERA, 3.35 xERA, and a 3.91 FIP. Springs struggled to a 5.42 ERA and a 4.66 FIP in his first three years in the big-leagues, split between the Texas Rangers and the Boston Red Sox. The Rays reduced his fastball usage in favor of more breaking stuff. The early returns were promising.  

Chris Mazza was unimpressive in limited work in 2021, with a 4.61 ERA, 4.06 xERA, and a 4.05 FIP. Below average velocity and spin rates figure to keep him in low leverage situations again in 2022. Someone has to eat innings when playing from behind.