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Texas Rangers 2022 Futures Odds and Betting Preview

Nick Galaida Mon 4/4 11:46am PT
Texas Rangers bettors hope Corey Seager will provide help in 20220.
(Image Credit: Imagn)

Check out this 2022 Texas Rangers futures betting preview, and use our Caesars promo to claim up to $1100 of first-bet insurance ahead of Opening Day.

Texas Rangers 2022 Futures Odds

Prior to the expiration of the league’s collective bargaining agreement, the Texas Rangers spent $561 million in free agency in the hope that they can achieve their first winning season since 2016. The addition of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager indicate that the Rangers plan to be a contender sooner rather than later, despite back-to-back basement finishes in a highly-competitive American League West division. The decision to invest so heavily in bolstering their offensive attack makes sense, considering their dreadful numbers at the plate in 2021. Yet, it is worth wondering if breaking the bank for offense was strategically shrewd when realizing that half of their games will be played in one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball. Let’s take a look at what MLB futures bettors should expect from this group in 2022.

Offensive Preview

NamePos.GP 2021wRC+ v. LHPwRC+ v. RHPK%BB%UZR/ 150
Mitch GarverC689716829.2%12.8%–
Nathaniel Lowe1B15711211625.2%12.5%-5.5
Marcus Semien2B16210813920.2%9.1%6.6
Andy Ibanez3B761468512.9%5.5%0.9
Corey SeagerSS9514714716.1%11.7%-14.1
Brad MillerLF1403912329.7%11.9%-30.6
Adolis GarciaCF1498710631.2%5.1%11.8
Kole CalhounRF51-1310722.5%8.2%2.0
Willie CalhounDH75889112.0%7.4%-11.5
Nick SolakUTIL1271078120.9%6.7%-21.4

Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Texas ranked 30th in OPS, 29th in ISO, 16th in strikeout percentage, 30th in walk rate, and 29th in wRC+. Facing right-handed pitching, the Rangers ranked 28th in OPS, 26th in ISO, 15th in strikeout percentage, 26th in walk rate, and 24th in wRC+.

Nearly every metric from last season unambiguously placed the Rangers as one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Adding Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to the fray will certainly help matters, but it is unlikely to elevate this group nearly enough to consider offense a relative strength compared to the rest of the league. Texas traded for Mitch Garver to be their starting catcher. Garver brings a plus-bat to the order, capable of hitting both left- and right-handed pitching. However, durability is an obvious concern considering that Garver has played only 184 of 384 possible games since the beginning of 2019. Still, he has exceptional power and a rare ability to draw base-on-balls for a catcher. Nathaniel Lowe has quietly been an above-average MLB hitter for three consecutive seasons, albeit two of those years featured very small sample sizes. Lowe does not suffer from poor righty/lefty splits, but rather struggles to get the ball in the air. Against fastballs and offspeed pitches in 2021, Lowe had greater than a 54 percent ground-ball rate. He is a better launch angle from becoming one of the better hitters in the American League. Andy Ibanez was serviceable in 76 games during his rookie year, batting .277 and striking out in only 12.9 percent of his plate appearances. The next step in his development is correcting for below average production against right-handed pitching. If Ibanez can do that, he could become a surprisingly important piece of the future in Texas. 

The Rangers have an undeniably strong infield, but their outfield production will make-or-break this lineup’s reputation in 2022. Brad Miller frequently squared the ball up in 2021 when he managed to make contact, but his strikeout percentage ranked in only the 7th percentile among qualified hitters. He also had ghastly splits against right- and left-handed pitching. Against southpaws, Miller struck-out in 40 percent of his plate appearances and posted an abysmal .169 batting average. Prior to last season, Kole Calhoun was one of only 13 players, per Baseball Prospectus, to play in over 800 games. However, a torn meniscus and a torn hamstring limited Calhoun to only 51 games in 2021, rattling his reputation as one of the most durable players in the MLB. Similar to his outfield-mates, Calhoun possesses rather sharp contrasts in production against right- and left-handed pitching. On a contender, Calhoun would be best utilized as a platoon option. Texas will be hoping for reasonable-enough production to warrant his name being on the lineup card for 150 games.

Willie Calhoun had more hype than most prospects when arrived in the big leagues, but his elite offensive production from the minors has yet to translate to the pros. In 235 games at the MLB level, Calhoun owns a .247 batting average, .301 on-base-percentage, and a .414 slugging percentage. Aside from atrocious defense, Calhoun’s primary hurdle to becoming an above average bat is a continued struggle with breaking pitches and offspeed offerings. In 2021, he owned a .371 wOBA against fastballs, but only a .202 wOBA against breaking pitches, and .180 wOBA against offspeed offerings. When Nick Solak burst on to the season in 2019, he looked to be an integral part of the Rangers future. Instead, he followed up a strong debut with back-to-back disappointing performances. Across his last 185 games played, he has only 13 home runs, 72 RBI, and a .318 on-base-percentage. Last year, he ranked well below league average in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, walk-rate, and chase rate. Similar to Willie Calhoun, his growth has been stunted by an inability to hit anything other than a fastball. Solak figures to platoon frequently in the outfield in 2022 to form a decent combined left fielder for the Rangers.

Rangers MVP Odds

Corey Seager (+2500)

In his age 27 season, Corey Seager continued to bolster his reputation as an elite offensive shortstop. He played only 95 games in 2021, due to a broken hand on a hit-by-pitch, but ended the campaign ranking the 89th percentile or better in hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. He also ranked in the 84th percentile in walk rate and the 79th percentile in strikeout percentage. Seager has ranked in the 93rd percentile or better in xBA and xwOBA in four of the last six seasons. Expect him to continue seeing the baseball well in his new uniform. His presence will undoubtedly help Texas improve their dreadful walk rate and OPS from last year.

Alvarez’s AL Most Valuable Player odds are +2200 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can get +2500 odds on BetMGM.

Marcus Semien (+4000)

Marcus Semien might not win Most Valuable Player (MVP) in 2022, but he will almost certainly contend for Most Available Player (MAP) again this summer. Since 2015, Semien has played in at least 155 games in five of Major League Baseball’s six full campaigns. Twice in that span, Semien has played all 162 games. Though his availability is commendable, even more important is heis recent increase in power production. Since the beginning of 2019, Semien has 162 game averages of 37 home runs and 93 RBI. Pair that with solid defense at second base and an extremely palatable strikeout percentage, and the Rangers get one of the best middle infield bats in the entire American League. He was not cheap, but his aggressive approach and hard-contact rates are likely to pay dividends in the Lone Star State.

Adolis Garcia (+10000)

Adolis Garcia made the All-Star team and tied for the league lead in outfield assists in his first full year of MLB action. Yet, a .223 batting average from June 19th to the end of the regular season, coupled with a 32.5 strikeout percentage tempered the optimism significantly heading into this upcoming season. Poor contact skills and poor plate discipline are of tremendous concern. Adjustments will need to be made if he is going to be a value-add in the Rangers lineup in 2022.

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