Texas Rangers 2022 Futures and Pitching Preview

Check out this 2022 Texas Rangers pitching preview, and use our BetMGM promo code to claim a $1000 free bet ahead Opening Day.

Texas Rangers 2022 Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 74.5 Wins (-110
• Best Regular Season Record: +20000
• Division Winner: +2200
• To Make the Playoffs: +650
• American League Winner: +5000
• World Series Champion: +10000

Texas Rangers 2022 Pitching Preview

Jon Gray (+10000)

Jon Gray has long-suffered from the plight associated with pitching roughly half of his innings in the altitude at Coors Field. Since 2015, Gray has still managed to post a FIP better than league average in six of seven seasons, with the lone outlier being the pandemic-shortened campaign in 2020. Make no mistake – Gray is far from an ace of a staff, but it is likely that he has one of the higher floors in the league as he transitions to the pitcher-friendly confines of Globe Life Field. 

Gray’s AL Cy Young odds are +10000 at MGM, but unfortunately there’s not much to like for MLB futures bettors.

Martin Perez

Martin Perez has not posted a FIP better than league average since 2015. Since the beginning of 2016, he owns a 4.89 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 1.51 WHIP, and a 15.3 strikeout percentage. In 114.0 innings for the Boston Red Sox in 2021, Perez posted a 4.74 ERA, 5.59 xERA, and a 4.82 FIP. He ranked in the 22nd percentile or worse in hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and strikeout percentage. His fastball velocity and spin rates are among the worst in baseball. He will be paid to eat innings without getting completely shelled this summer – a job he does reasonably well. 

Dane Dunning

Dane Dunning posted some of the most stark home/away splits in Major League Baseball last season. In 67.0 innings pitched at Globe Life Field, he delivered a 3.09 ERA and a 2.72 FIP. In 50.2 innings when pitching away from home, Dunning turned in a 6.39 ERA and a 5.56 FIP. Everything from his surface level run prevention metrics to his strikeout and walk-rates were better at home. A former 29th overall draft selection, the upside is clearly visible, but the floor is also disturbingly low as he enters his second full year as a starter.

Taylor Hearn

Taylor Hearn has been unspectacular since his debut in 2019–posting a 4.80 ERA and a 4.81 FIP. His 21.9 strikeout percentage and 10.9 percent walk-rate offer little reason to believe that he has been better than peripherals that suggest worse than league average production on the mound. In 2021, he ranked in the 33rd percentile or worse in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage, and walk-rate. A late-season transition to the rotation did little to impact his season long numbers, as he posted a 5.56 ERA, 4.68 xERA, and a 5.02 FIP in his final eight trips to the mound. There is very little to be excited about here for Rangers fans, but is likely to give the offense a decent chance to win games, considering he only allowed more than 4 earned runs once in his eight starts during the months of August and September. In fact, Texas emerged victorious in four of those eight contests.

Spencer Howard

Reports from Spring Training indicate that Spencer Howard has looked more like a former top prospect than the pitcher who owns a 6.93 ERA and a 5.10 FIP since his big league debut. In 49.2 innings last year, Howard ranked in only the 44th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 13th percentile in walk-rate. He struggled to limit hard-contact and rarely was able to get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone. Factor in below average velocity and well-below average spin rates–the results were a 7.43 ERA, 4.67 xERA, and a 4.72 FIP. Interestingly, Howard has abandoned the windup heading into 2022, telling The Athletic that it “just feels better right now.” Still only 25 years old, Howard could be in for the best season of his young career in 2022.   

Rangers Bullpen

In 2021, the Rangers bullpen ranked 16th in FIP (4.20), 21st in xFIP (4.43), 26th in strikeout percentage (22.0%), 9th in walk-rate (8.3%), and 19th in WHIP (1.32).

Understandably, the last part of the roster that the front office looks to upgrade is the bullpen. If not likely to contend for a championship, it makes little sense to pay a premium for late-inning run prevention, when it is unlikely that the team will even have the lead in most games. Texas is no exception in 2022. The organization invested heavily in Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to upgrade the offense, and brought in Jon Gray to stabilize the front of the rotation, but the bullpen remains uninspiring.

Joe Barlow posted an elite 1.55 ERA in 2021, but his 3.39 xERA and 3.45 FIP portend regression closer to league average in 2022. In his first taste of MLB action, Barlow showcased plenty of upside, but it would be unwise to expect a .143 BABIP to repeat itself. Barlow’s 10.8 percent walk-rate could also become more problematic if he does not receive extremely good fortune on balls in play again. One of the more reliable southpaw relievers in baseball, Brett Martin receives little fanfare from the media. Nevertheless, he has posted a 3.75 ERA and a 3.82 FIP in 139.1 innings of relief since debuting in 2019. His 91st percentile command and 68th percentile average exit velocity from last year make him one of the more low-risk late inning options in baseball. Still, mediocre velocity and unimpressive spin rates likely limit his ceiling. On a contender, he would be a solid 7th inning option for a manager.   

In his first 45.1 innings of work in the big leagues, Spencer Patton was ineffective to the tune of a 7.35 ERA and a 5.28 FIP. He fared much better in 2021, delivering a 3.83 ERA, 3.06 xERA, and a 3.19 FIP across 42.1 frames. Four years in Japan seemed to have paid dividends for his development. Similar to Martin, mediocre velocity and 9th percentile spin rates limit his ceiling–but he should make for a semi-reliable option in the 6th or 7th inning. Over 75 percent of Dennis Santana’s pitches thrown are sinkers and sliders. His slider is significantly better than his sinker, but his sinker accounts for nearly half of his total offerings. The result was a 4.28 ERA, 5.26 xERA and a 4.36 FIP in 2021, and a 5.04 ERA and 4.73 FIP for his career. He ranked in only the 21st percentile in strikeout percentage and the 4th percentile in walk-rate last year. There is not much to love here. 

Uninspiring velocity and spin rates surprisingly yielded a 3.52 ERA, 3.35 xERA, and a 3.32 FIP for John King last summer across 46.0 innings of work. A sinker that ranked in the 24th percentile in velocity and the 5th percentile in spin rate make it difficult to believe that there is much upside here. Nevertheless, solid command should give him a role on this roster. Kolby Allard has never posted better than a 4.96 ERA nor better than a 4.76 xERA. In 2021, he ranked well below league average in nearly every metric used to measure success on the mound. Entering his fifth year as a big leaguer, he is what he is at this point–a pitcher who struggles to generate swings and misses or weak contact, but someone with good enough command to keep a low-level job.

Garrett Richards was one the poster faces when the MLB cracked down on foreign substance usage last spring. Across his first 10 starts, Richards posted a 3.83 ERA and a 3.89 FIP. In his subsequent 12 trips to the mound, he turned in a 6.55 ERA and a 6.37 FIP before being demoted to the bullpen. To his credit, Richards pitched much better over the final two months of the year, with a 3.42 ERA and a 2.90 FIP in relief. There are major question marks here, but he has the ability to carve out a role for himself as a low-leverage reliever for the rebuilding Rangers. Nick Snyder is one of the hardest throwers in the league, but it has yet to lead to positive results in terms of run prevention. Last year, he only totaled 8.0 innings between AAA and the big leagues, but the results indicate that he has a lot left to refine before graduating his fastball/slider arsenal to the highest level of baseball in a full-time role.

Josh Sborz excelled at nearly every stop he made in the minor leagues, but his first two stints in the MLB resulted in a 6.08 ERA and a 5.91 FIP. Entrusted with a longer leash in 2021, Sborz was much better–posting a 3.97 ERA, 3.90 xERA, and a 4.00 FIP across 59.0 innings. A 10th percentile walk-rate will keep him from pitching near the end of games, but a 71st percentile strikeout percentage and a 61st percentile wOBA suggest that there is room for growth for the 27 year old.

Jose LeClerc will begin the campaign on the injured list, but should be ready to rejoin the team by the end of April or in early May. Prior to missing nearly all of 2020, and all of 2021–Leclerc posted a 3.18 ERA and a 3.30 FIP in 187.0 innings spanning from 2016 to 2019. Leclerc possesses some of the most tantalizing swing-and-miss stuff in the big leagues, evidenced by his 33.0 strikeout percentage in that span. Yet, a 14.8 percent walk-rate has kept him from joining the elite tier of relievers in baseball.