Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds, Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Tigers vs. Dodgers odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick for today’s game. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 free bet today!

Tigers vs. Dodgers Odds

This afternoon, the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers will conclude a three-game set at Dodger Stadium. On Friday, Los Angeles won easily by a final score of 5-1, but Detroit rebounded for a surprise 5-1 victory on Saturday to even the series. In the rubber match, the Tigers will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill. The Dodgers will counter with Walker Buehler. Oddsmakers anticipate a bounce-back day for Los Angeles, pricing them as -250 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Detroit Tigers

Simply, Eduardo Rodriguez has not been very good to begin 2022. Through his first four turns in the rotation, he owns a 5.03 ERA, 5.58 xERA, and a 4.42 FIP. His strikeout percentage and walk-rate would each be the worst number he has posted in those categories since his rookie season in 2015. Part of Rodriguez’s struggles in April can be attributed to the fact that his primary pitch–the fastball–missed over the middle of the plate far too often. In fact, his changeup was the only pitch that he managed to keep out of the middle-third of the plate on a consistent basis in the opening month of the campaign. If Rodriguez wants to turn his season around, he will need to get his fastball closer to the top of the strike zone and his other offerings closer to the corners. A date with the Dodgers is not the easiest get-right spot.

Against right-handed pitching this year, the Tigers rank 27th in OPS, 29th in ISO, 17th in walk-rate, and 21st in strikeout percentage. Only Austin Meadows and Javier Baez have higher than a .709 OPS against righties for Detroit this season. Facing one of the best pitchers in baseball on Sunday is not the easiest spot to improve these numbers.

Detroit was able to earn an unexpected victory on Saturday, but it is going to be difficult to deliver a repeat performance on Sunday unless Rodriguez can get deep into the ballgame. The backend of this unit–Gregory Soto, Michael Fulmer, and Andrew Chafin are relatively rested. However, Wily Peralta, Joe Jimenez, and Jacob Barnes have all been used heavily in recent days–making it unlikely that this unit will be able to effectively bridge a long gap from the starter to the late-innings in this one.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Last time Walker Buehler took the mound, he threw a complete game shutout, in which he allowed only three baserunners while striking-out 10 batters. It was the first time in 2022 that Buehler had completed six innings and also the first time that he recorded more than five strikeouts. Ahead of first-pitch on Sunday, Buehler ranks in only the 36th percentile in xwOBA, 42nd percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 36th percentile in whiff-rate. Part of this decline in numbers could be attributed to slightly diminished velocity in April compared to recent years. Still, Buehler has a favorable matchup here against a weak-hitting offense in this one. It would be surprising if he had an ineffective outing on Sunday.

The Dodgers have the most feared lineup in all of baseball, but they are far more mortal against left-handed pitching than they are against right-handed pitching. Against southpaws in 2022, the Dodgers rank only 18th in OPS, 14th in ISO, 15th in walk-rate, and 17th in strikeout percentage. Will Smith, Chris Taylor, and Freddie Freeman have been the only consistent hitters against lefties this year. Los Angeles will need more of a team effort if they want to make life hard on Rodriguez this afternoon. 

Reyes Moronta, Evan Phillips, and Brusdar Graterol have each pitched in back-to-back days, but the rest of this unit is fairly well-rested. Justin Bruihl, Daniel Hudson, and Craig Kimbrel have been Manager Dave Roberts’ favorite options in the seventh inning or later this season. Those three pitchers have combined to throw only 14 pitches across the last three days. If a high-leverage situation presents itself, Los Angeles should be in good shape in the late innings today.

Free MLB Betting Pick

There are some concerns about Rodriguez’s inability to keep the ball out of the middle of the plate today, but that is the only major concern in this one when it comes to run prevention. Detroit has been one of the worst hitting teams in the league against right-handed pitching this season. Los Angeles has been closer to mediocre than elite against southpaws. Assuming that neither bullpen implodes, the under has a good chance to cash this afternoon at Dodger Stadium.

• PICK: Under 7.5 @ -104