Toronto Blue Jays Betting Odds: Three Starters 25-1 To Win AL Cy Young

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Toronto Blue Jays’ pitching staff and Cy Young odds leading up to Opening Day.

Toronto Blue Jays Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 89.5 Wins (-106)
• Best Regular Season Record: +1500
• Division Winner: +320
• To Make the Playoffs: -200
• American League Winner: +750
• World Series Champion: +1700

Pitching Preview

Toronto Blue Jays Cy Young Odds

Jose Berrios (+2500)

Unsettling as it may be for Toronto fans to hear, Jose Berrios is not an ace, but rather a slightly better than league average starter whose reputation continues to benefit from his former status as a top prospect. From 2017 to 2020, Berrios posted a 3.82 ERA and a 3.89 FIP–the latter of which was 12 percent better than league average. In 2021, Berrios turned in a 3.48 ERA and a 3.58 FIP through 20 turns in the rotation, and then posted a 3.58 ERA and a 3.28 FIP in 12 starts for the Blue Jays. There is nothing to dislike about a pitcher who consistently produces solid numbers, but he is unlikely to go toe-to-toe with Gerrit Cole in the Cy Young voting anytime soon.

Berrios’ AL Cy Young odds are +2000 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can get +2500 on Caesars.

Kevin Gausman (+2500)

Kevin Gausman threw his fastball and split finger for a combined 88.0 percent of his offerings in 2021, during which he posted a career-best 2.81 ERA, 3.55 xERA, and a 3.00 FIP. Yet, there are more than a few reasons to be skeptical that Gausman will be able to repeat this performance in 2022. Following an incredible start to the season, Gausman became increasingly more hittable as the year progressed. Batters improved their wOBA against Gausman’s split finger each month from June to July to August to September. Hitters posted only a .196 wOBA against Gausman’s fastball in May, but suspiciously delivered a .385 wOBA in June, a .417 wOBA in July, and .352 wOBA in August following a league-wide crackdown on foreign substances. Gausman turned in a 5.04 ERA and a 3.99 FIP in 13 starts from July 19th to September 21st before finishing the season with a pair of strong outings against two anemic offenses in the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres. The Blue Jays might thing they have a Cy Young candidate, but they more than likely only have a league average starter here.

Alek Manoah (+2500)

Alek Manoah is the real deal. He may end up third on the rotation, but like Berrios and Gausman, MLB futures bettors will find a +2500 price tag next to his name to win AL Cy Young . In 111.1 innings of work as a rookie, he posted a 3.22 ERA, 3.32 xERA, and a 3.80 FIP. He held opposing hitters to a .280 wOBA against his fastball, sinker, and slider, with his changeup being the last pitch he needs to improve to elevate himself into the elite tier of American League arms. In 2021, he ranked in the 79th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and strikeout percentage. At only 24 years old, there is plenty of room for growth. The future is extremely bright for Manoah.

Hyun Jin Ryu (+7500)

Hyun Jin Ryu was signed to be the ace of this staff prior to the pandemic shortened campaign but now finds himself at the backend of the rotation following a rapid decline in production across the last two years. In six seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Ryu posted a 2.98 ERA and a 3.32 FIP. In 2021, Ryu delivered a 4.37 ERA, 4.48 xERA, and a 4.02 FIP. At the Rogers Centre last summer, Ryu had a 4.47 FIP and only an 18.7 strikeout percentage. He was much better on the road where he posted a 3.53 FIP and a 22.3 strikeout percentage. His command remains elite, but he allowed an abundance of hard-contact in 2021 and ranked in only the 27th percentile in strikeout-rate. Opposing hitters collected a .361 wOBA against his fastball. There is little doubt that Ryu is far closer to league average than elite on the mound.

Yusei Kikuchi (+8000)

Per Dan Clark, Yusei Kikuchi owns a 5.91 ERA against the Boston Red Sox and a 4.57 ERA against the New York Yankees in his career. Those numbers are not dissimilar from his 4.97 ERA and 4.93 FIP across 365.2 frames against all of the teams he has faced. In 2021, he ranked in the 22nd percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. Factor in a 35th percentile walk-rate and it becomes increasingly clear that this experiment carries a healthy amount of risk. Perhaps more alarming, Kikuchi posted a 6.22 ERA and a 5.07 FIP from July 7th until the end of the regular season last summer. His rapid collapse after a strong first half of the campaign suspiciously coincided with the league-wide ban on sticky substances. Kikuchi is not terrible as a fifth starter, but he is likely to only pitch well against teams that struggle to hit southpaws.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Blue Jays bullpen ranked 20th in FIP (4.38), 12th in xFIP (4.22), 12th in strikeout percentage (24.6%), 14th in walk-rate (9.7%), and 9th in WHIP (1.28).

Nobody ever doubted that Jordan Romano had elite swing-and-miss stuff. The problem had always been his command. While his 28th percentile walk-rate is still not ideal, the fact that he was able to cut his walk-rate below 10 percent in 2021 enabled him to flourish to the tune of a 2.14 ERA, 2.64 xERA, and a 3.15 FIP. Elite velocity paired with elite spin rates will continue to keep hitters from doing much damage. The only concern continues to be–how much damage will Romano do to himself with the free pass?

Adam Cimber falls under the category of good, but not great when it comes to MLB relievers. In four big-league seasons, Cimber owns a 3.33 ERA and a 3.59 FIP, but his role in high leverage situations is a precarious one, considering that he ranked in only the 14th percentile in strikeout percentage in 2021 and has not struck-out more than 20.0 percent of opposing batters since his rookie year in 2018. Cimber excels at missing barrels, but he is likely better positioned in the 6th inning than the 8th inning.

Yimi Garcia is a league average relief arm, without much upside for more. Discarding the seasons in which he has thrown less than 20.0 innings, Garcia has never recorded an ERA lower than 3.34. Since the beginning of 2018, he owns a 3.83 ERA and a 4.54 FIP, supported by league average strikeout and walk numbers. He is what he is at this point in his career.

Trevor Richards transitioned to the bullpen full-time in 2021, pitching for three different teams in the process. He began the year with a 4.50 ERA and a 3.42 FIP across 12.0 innings of work for the Tampa Bay Rays. Richards posted a 3.20 ERA and a 3.98 FIP in 19.2 innings with the Milwaukee Brewers. Following his arrival in Toronto, he delivered a 3.31 ERA and a 4.61 FIP in 32.2 innings. It remains to be seen if he can replicate his 90th percentile strikeout percentage from 2021 with his below average velocity and unimpressive spin rates. 

Tim Mayza is arguably the second best reliever in Manager Charlie Montoyo’s arm barn, whether people realize it or not. His fastball velocity ranked in only the 64th percentile in 2021, but he ranked in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity and the 88th percentile in wOBA en route to a 3.40 ERA, 2.99 xERA, and a 3.09 FIP. Mayza completely abandoned what was a terrible fastball prior to last summer. The results forecast a second sustained success, considering that hitters posted a .280 wOBA or worse against both his sinker and his slider last year.

Julian Merryweather has thrown only 26.0 innings at the big-league level during his injury plagued career. He has an upper-90s fastball and a plus-changeup, but it is uncertain how much of it we will see on the field in 2022.

Ryan Borucki was one of the biggest victims of the three-batter minimum rule. He held left-handed hitters to a putrid .132 batting average while posting a 3.61 FIP. Yet, his 7.55 FIP against right-handed hitters kept him from earning more work.

Ross Stripling finished 2021 with a 4.80 ERA, 4.86 xERA, and a 5.21 FIP. After being permanently demoted to the bullpen in September, Stripling posted a 10.13 ERA and a 9.67 FIP across his final 8.0 innings of the year. He might not find himself on this roster for long this season.