Tuesday MLB Betting Picks and Predictions (August 3)
We are back, baby! Our Bets of the Day for Monday went 2-1, and we are back to 11 games over .500 with a 37-26 mark. That record’s not ideal, but at least we are back in the swing of things. And we are ready to take our forward momentum into a full slate of Tuesday games.
With the smoke cleared from a hectic MLB trade deadline, we can now more clearly analyze each team’s big picture. And with most pitchers close to 15-20 starts into the season, we know what to expect from most pitching matchups.
Let’s dive right into Tuesday’s Bets of the Day, and keep pushing higher above .500!
MLB Betting Picks & Predictions for Tuesday
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs. Patrick Corbin
MLB Bet: Phillies -175
Don’t look now, but the Phillies have won three games in a row and scored 24 runs in the process. They have also put up 29 runs over their past five games against the Nationals, who might be the newest iteration of the Miami Marlins. Talk about a ‘fire sale’—Washington shipped out every star at the trade deadline except for Juan Soto, who stands alone with his tiki torch on Franchise Survivor Island.
Wheeler has been great this season, with the numbers to prove it. He is 8-6 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, and an NL-leading 165 strikeouts in 139.2 innings. No pitcher in the MLB has played more innings, and no NL pitcher has faced more batters (554). Wheeler’s advanced metrics look amazing, too. He has a 29.8 percent strikeout rate, a 1.6 percent home run rate, a 29.5 percent hard-hit rate, and an 83.9 miles per hour average exit velocity. Opponents are slashing just .217/.267/.313 against the first-time All-Star.
Going against Wheeler will be fellow lefty Corbin, who has not enjoyed a successful season. The 32-year old veteran has allowed an NL-high 70 earned runs on the year, good for a 5.78 ERA. He has a 1.468 WHIP, and just 82 strikeouts in 109 innings. He has been hit hard and often (40% hard-hit rate, 88.5 average exit velocity, .286/.344/.495 opponent slash).
Washington set itself up for the future with its recent blockbuster trades, but at present it’s a team with an idle offense. I like Wheeler to limit the Nats’ run production, and I like the Phillies to jump out to an early lead against Corbin. I’d take Philly’s -1.5 run line if the odds were a little better, but I don’t like -105 in a ‘win by two’ bet. Give me the Phillies in a straight-up W.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs. Kris Bubic
MLB Bet: White Sox -1.5 First 5 Innings (+110)
The White Sox are No. 1 in the AL Central, and oddsmakers have taken notice. The South-Siders are -250 on the moneyline against the Royals today, and -120 on the run line. Well, let’s delve deeper, and bet the run line in the first five innings for a little extra value.
Chicago will be looking for payback after dropping three of four to Kansas City last week, despite the fact the Royals are 16 games behind the White Sox in the standings. Tony La Russa’s club bounced back from that series well, winning two games against the Indians and dropping the third by just one run. The White Sox scored 19 runs across those three home games against the Tribe. They are 37-18 at Guaranteed Rate Field, the second-best home record behind San Francisco.
La Russa should be happy to have 25-year old Dylan Cease on the mound at home. The young righty has gone 4-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.157 WHIP at home, with 11.7 strikeouts per nine. Away from Guaranteed Rate, he is 3-4 with a 5.91 ERA, 1.444 WHIP, and 11.1 K/9. Cease clearly enjoys his friendly confines in the Windy City, and will be looking for his first win since he beat the Twins there on June 30.
The Royals counter with Kris Bubic, who has had a roller coaster of a season. The 23-year old southpaw has a 4.48 ERA and 1.460 WHIP to go with his 3-4 record. But he’s been pretty good his last few outings, going six innings in all three and surrendering just four total runs across the 18 innings. His last outing against the White Sox yielded just six Chicago baserunners and two earned runs.
Still, I like the White Sox to avenge their last meeting with these Royals, and serve up some ice cold Chicago pie (wait, revenge deep-dish?). Cease has been incredible at home, as has the White Sox offense, so I have little faith in the Royals’ ability to keep up through five frames. I’m still not completely sold on Chicago’s bullpen, but I’m confident in La Russa’s club will at least take a two-run lead into the sixth inning.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros
Pitching Matchup: Walker Buehler vs. Lance McCullers Jr.
MLB Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
This game should be a fantastic way to end the night, with a battle of Cy Young candidates taking the mound. Walker Buehler will take his 11-1 record—an MLB-leading .917 winning percentage—while Lance McCullers brings his 8-2 record. These clubs are tops in the majors in run production (Houston 580, LA 560), RBI (HOU 556, LA 536), and OBP (HOU .341, LA .336).
Houston also leads the MLB in hits (968) and average (.267), and ranks second in slugging (.440) and OPS (.781). But the Dodgers lead the world in ERA (3.18) and batting average against (.213), while ranking second in strikeouts (1061) and WHIP (1.13). Sorry for going all ‘stat nerd’ on you, but these teams are fantastic!
I can’t go against Buehler at home with all his shiny toys. Corey Seager and Mookie Betts are back in action, Albert Pujols has been raking as a Dodger, Chris Taylor has enjoyed a breakout season, and AJ Pollock and Justin Turner have been dependable as ever. Newly-acquried MVP candidate Trea Turner should make his debut this weekend, so Dave Roberts’ club must be riding high right now.
The Astros are always a tough out, but I’m sticking with my Cy Young pick to notch his 12th win. If you are a little more nervous about this one, consider the UNDER on the 8.5 run total at -110. But I do not envision a guy with a 2.19 ERA losing at home to a guy with a 3.23 ERA. This is Buehler’s year—he has gone six strong in 20 of 21 starts, and he’s not slowing down for anyone.