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UFC 271 Odds: Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker Betting Preview

Liam Heslin Fri 2/11 10:24am PT
UFC 271 Odds
(Image Credit: USA TODAY)

MMA betting expert Liam Heslin previews the action for the main event at UFC 271. Get the best odds and other betting tips for Adesanya vs. Whittaker.

“The Last Stylerbender” Israel Adesanya has ruled the UFC’s middleweight division with an iron fist since October of 2019, when he wrested the title from fan favorite and pound for pound talent Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker in the main event of UFC 243.

The writing was on the wall leading up to the first matchup. Robert Whittaker had been relatively inactive, sidelined by illness and injury, and Israel had established himself as the interim champion, defeating Kelvin Gastelum in a memorable war.

Whittaker had been out of the Octagon for more than a year after enduring two fight-of-the-year quality brawls (in 2017 & 2018) with the legendary Yoel Romero.

Whittaker was emotional and angry headed into the fight, and it showed in his approach. He closed distance recklessly, bounding into range with his hands low in blitzing fashion.

Adesanya’s patient, precision counter striking was effective in thwarting the blitzes, punishing the forward pressure, and maintaining adequate distance to evade takedown entries with footwork.

However, most observers of Robert Whittaker’s storied UFC run can agree that the loss to Adesanya was one of the worst performances of Whittaker’s career; he fought uncharacteristically and paid for it with his consciousness.

Whittaker’s shot at redemption is now within reach, as he is slated to battle Israel Adesanya once again for the middleweight championship of the world. Yet, there are several differences between this booking and the first fight that I think are worth examining.

UFC 271 Preview: Adesanya vs. Whittaker

  1. Whittaker is now the challenger. In a sport where carrying the championship comes with increased media obligations, difficult matchups, and an insane amount of pressure to perform, the champion often has to navigate the specifics of the matchup they are in as well as the circus that so often surrounds championship fights. Whittaker had his back to the wall in the first matchup as the media, organization, and fan base salivated over the prospect of anointing Israel Adesanya the next big thing in combat sports. It is arguable that Adesanya has more pressure on his back defending the title, as he is a significant favorite, he has been dealing with contractual negotiations behind the scenes during fight week, and he is faced with a previous performance against Whittaker that will be difficult to top in a second iteration. 
  2. The fight is taking place in Houston, Texas (neutral territory). As if the pressure of fighting in front of a sold out crowd was not enough, Whittaker was fighting in his home country of Australia in front of one of the largest crowds in mixed martial arts history. Mind you, this was after headlining two relatively low key UFC events against Yoel Romero. The level of interest and anticipation for the Adesanya fight was significantly heightened, in part fueled by the Australia vs. New Zealand rivalry that was prebuilt into the matchup. At a neutral site, I expect the pressure on both men will be significantly reduced. 
  3. Whittaker has more adjustments to make. There are myriad reasons why Whittaker has more adjustments to make, beginning with the fact that he was brutally knocked out and knocked down twice in his battle with Adeseanya. If he wants to win the fight, he has to limit the number of clean strikes landed by Adesnya on the counter. To accomplish this, he will have to be active with feints, work behind long strikes, and pursue wrestling as both a level change threat and a round management tool against the fence. Whittaker attempted no takedowns in the first bout between the two. He is also the younger fighter in this matchup by more than a year. Israel Adesanya has attempted 3 takedowns in the UFC, never securing one. He has never secured more than two minutes of control time in a UFC bout, so it is very likely Izzy will be looking to outstrike Robert Whittaker to a KO (as he did in their previous bout) or points based victory. 
  4. Whittaker is now a significant underdog. When bookmakers released odds for the first booking of this fight, Whittaker opened -185 (65% implied) and closed +102 (49.5% implied) on the market average. In simple terms, this means from the time the line dropped to the time the fight began, the line had adjusted 15.5% in favor of Israel Adesanya. Adesanya opened the favorite in the rematch for obvious reasons; when he was available as an underdog against Whittaker, the public devoured it. Now, he opens to the tune of a -260 favorite (72% implied), a total correction of ~33.5% since the initial booking. This is a massive correction, and potentially a market overcorrection.
  5. Recent form. Whittaker has been in solid form since his loss to Adesanya, securing three UFC wins by unanimous decision over ranked middleweight contenders. Whittaker has attempted 19 takedowns in his last three bouts (~65% of his total attempts in the UFC), securing 6 total takedowns and more than 2 minutes of control against each of his last three opponents. Adesanya is 3-1 since defeating Whittaker. He secured wins over Yoel Romero (in nail biter fashion), Paulo Costa (dominant performance), and most recently, Marvin Vettori in June of 2021. Three of his last four fights have gone the distance, including his unanimous decision loss to Jan Blachowicz at light heavyweight in which he conceded seven plus minutes of control time and 3 takedowns. Marvin Vettori tried to replicate that game plan with limited success, but did provide another example of Israel fighting within somewhat narrow margins.

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