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UFC 272 Odds: Covington vs. Masvidal Predictions and Best Bets

Liam Heslin Fri 3/4 2:01pm PT
UFC 272 Odds
(Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

MMA betting expert Liam Heslin previews UFC 272 odds and gives you his predictions and best bets for Covington vs. Masvidal.

If you looked back through the recent history of the UFC Welterweight division, three names have separated themselves from the pack as the three meaningful welterweight rivals of their generation: Kamaru Usman, Jorge Masvidal, and Colby Covington. Perhaps it is something about the South Florida sunshine; every recent Welterweight Champion and Title Challenger has come from the South Florida MMA scene (or at least spent most of their career in it like Usman). Gilbert Burns, Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, and Jorge Masvidal have all touched down at the well-regarded American Top Team outfit in Coconut Creek, Florida.

ATT has been the home of championship level fighters as well as championship level sparring rivalries. Covington and Masvidal were teammates and best friends, each pursuing divisional glory. Masvidal was a lightweight fighter and a young veteran, having accrued an incredible amount of fight experience in backyards, regional MMA promotions, and organizations which have long since gone defunct (i.e. Strikeforce and Bodog).

Colby Covington on the other hand was a combat athlete from the discipline of wrestling; he emerged from his wrestling career a Division I All-American at Oregon State University and a 2x Pac-10 Champion at 174 pounds. Masvidal brought Covington in as a wrestling sparring partner to help round out his game, and Covington was thrilled to have a mentor with a wealth of knowledge and experience in the fight game; the rest, as they say, is history.

It is rare to have a non-title fight headline a UFC pay-per-view event in the modern era, but there are few stories as compelling in the industry as a “blood feud.” These types of fights are compelling for myriad reasons: the stakes are higher for both fighters in a loss and the emotions of the fighters can impact their focus/strategy. Additionally, both of these fighters have two losses to current welterweight king pin Kamaru Usman, meaning they are already some distance from a title opportunity. Losing this fight would likely be a death sentence on Masvidal’s chance to fight for a title. Masvidal is 3 years and 3 months older than Covington (34 himself, no spring chicken in the cage fighting business) and he has had two failed title opportunities in which he was summarily defeated on the scorecards and then knocked out in spectacular fashion. Covington on the other hand was finished by Usman in the fifth round of a classic battle in their first bout before being dropped badly and nearly finished in the second bout, only to recover and battle his way back in the later rounds to make the decision somewhat competitive. Confidence is a major X-factor in the fight game, and I question both men’s level of confidence heading into this fight.

UFC 272 Odds: Covington vs. Masvidal Preview

Colby Covington is nicknamed “Chaos.” If you watch Covington’s UFC debut against Anying Wang (August 2014), the name makes perfect sense. He comes forward with tremendous confidence, slinging committed punches and wide high kicks, pressuring aggressively, and getting right after his opponent along the fence line with wrestling pressure and striking volume. Covington’s chaotic style was a regular feature of his fighting right up through the first Usman fight. Colby is a product of the modern meta of mixed martial arts, which preferences fighters that throw in a high volume and constantly take the initiative, forcing their opponents into reactive, uncomfortable fights that test their cardio and mental resolve. After he was finished due to strikes by Kamaru Usman, it seems to have brought a greater level of order to Covington’s approach.

There are moments of hesitation for Covington in the Woodley fight and the Usman title rematch. In the lead-up to this fight, he has talked about the “patient” approach he is looking to bring to the octagon. For me, a “patient” Colby Covington would not give him his best chance to win the fight. Covington is the better wrestler in this matchup by a significant margin, but he is not taking on a slouch in the wrestling department.

Masvidal was able to stuff a bounty of attempts (8/12) from Demian Maia, losing a narrow split decision before Maia declared Jorge “he is one of the best jiu-jitsu fighters that I have ever fought in the UFC.” On the feet, Colby Covington is a competent but fairly meat and potatoes striker.

Historically, Colby has set himself apart with his volume approach to striking, filling gaps in the fight with constant activity. Compared to Masvidal, he tends to 2 more strikes per minute spent at distance; however, despite the volume gap, it is Masvidal who lands slightly more strikes per minute. Masvidal has a 10% edge in striking accuracy in his favor, landing nearly 50% of his attempts on the feet compared to less than 40% for Covington. Masvidal also has the slightly better striking defense at distance.

The huge concern on the Masvidal side is that he concedes 20% of his fight time to his opponent’s in negative control positions. Covington is a phenomenal control grappler, spending a baffling 45% of his fight time in control of his opponent.

The obvious breakdown when considering this fight goes as follows: Covington used to get the better of him in sparring, and he is the younger, fresher, pressure wrestler, so he SHOULD win. There is no doubt that Colby Covington deserves his distinction as the betting favorite here; the question is about what is the appropriate price?

Betting Perspective

If you are wondering why Colby Covington continues to be a popular betting commodity, the answer is obvious: since debuting in the UFC, Colby is 11-3 for a 79% win rate, a 12.3% ROI, and a 15% edge in actual win rate versus his expected win rate (based on average odds of -181 [64.4%] ). He is also comfortable in his role as a favorite, having accrued an 11-1 record as a UFC favorite for a 92% win rate, a 31% ROI, and a 22% edge in actual win rate versus expected win rate. In other words, Colby Covington has been a good bet so far in the UFC, and he has outperformed market expectations based on closing odds. For totals bettors, you should be aware that 10 of Colby’s 14 bouts in the UFC have gone over the betting total, with 7 reaching the judges’ scorecards.

Jorge Masvidal has also given his backers reason for optimism; Masvidal is 4-6 as a UFC betting underdog at an average odds of +200 for roughly 20% ROI (napkin math) and a 7% edge on expected win rate versus actual win rate. In 20 UFC bouts, Masvidal has accrued a 12-8 record for a 60% win rate at an average odds of +101 (49.8%), beating expectations by more than 10%. However, at welterweight, Masvidal is a tepid 5-4 overall. What makes him more compelling is the fact that he has a 3-3 record as a welterweight underdog at an average odds of +206 (32.7%) and an ROI of roughly 53% (more napkin math). What this tells me is that Masvidal has been severely discounted at the welterweight class despite his massive popularity and cross over appeal. 

FanDuel Sportsbook opened the line for this fight at -190 (65.5%) Covington as the favorite and +160 (38.5%) for the comeback on Masvidal. Since that line dropped, the market has been dealing with largely one way traffic; Covington is now sitting at a money line market average of -335 (77%) which is pretty absurd. Usman closed a market average price of -340 (77.3%) against Masvidal at UFC 261 when he defeated him by knockout. Usman is bigger and stronger than Covington and Masvidal, and he also hits with more power. I think Colby Covington can replicate some elements of Usman’s success in his own approach to this fight, but I don’t believe that he has the same amount of finishing equity or durability. Jorge Masvidal is sitting at a market average of +260 (27.8%), but he can be found for as high as +285 (26%). In his run at welterweight, Masvidal has gone under the betting total in every win, and over the betting total in every loss except for his most recent bout, where he was KO’d in the second round by Kamaru Usman.

Covington vs. Masvidal Predictions

For me personally, this is a dog, prop, or pass situation. Colby Covington is not a massive power threat, and I would personally be stunned if he knocked out Masvidal in the first three rounds. I think that Colby will try to implement a pace-based grinding approach until Masvidal is spent before he will even try to pursue a finish. Therefore, I see the best way to play Colby Covington this weekend being on the prop market. My three favorite Colby props are as follows:

If you are on the Masvidal side, Masvidal can win this fight by decision, but most often he will need a finish if he is to win this fight. If his money line goes over +300 (25%) I will likely take a small poke. However, if you are looking to increase your value and bet into the Masvidal finishing trend at Welterweight, play him inside the distance on DraftKings Sportsbook at +380 for a small poke and enjoy the action!

With a gun to my head, I would pick Colby Covington to win this fight by decision. However, I have a sneaking suspicion Masvidal shocks the world with a body kick and left hook combination and knocks out Colby Covington in a moment of hesitation.

Prediction: Masvidal KO2

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