UFC 53 Odds: Vera vs. Font Expert Analysis, Picks, and Predictions

MMA betting expert Liam Heslin takes you inside the octagon, breaking down UFC 53 odds and giving you his Chito Vera vs. Rob Font Main prediction and picks. Check out our BetMGM bonus to get a $1000 risk-free bet!

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns once again to the UFC Apex to showcase their stacked bantamweight division. Fan-favorite Marlon “Chito” Vera has finally ascended to a UFC main event, and he is looking to use this opportunity to springboard over Rob Font into the top five of this crowded division. Font on the other hand is looking to reclaim his momentum in the division, as his credible four-fight win streak was halted by Jose Aldo in devastating fashion. Not unlike his New England Cartel teammate Calvin Kattar–who returned from a five-round drubbing at the hands of Max Holloway to upend surging prospect Giga Chikadze over five rounds–Font would like to repay the whooping he was handed by the legend to his younger, less tested counterpart in Chito Vera.

UFC Fight 53 Preview: Vera vs. Font

This is an important fight in the contendership que at bantamweight. Chito Vera is obviously in a more primed position to make a run at the belt on the strength of a two-fight win streak, a longer time horizon to find success (as the younger fighter), and a 6-2 record at the weight class overall since 2019 (compared to 3-1 for Font). Chito has been the much more active fighter, a quality the UFC tends to reward with promotional placement and at times, favorable matchmaking. For Rob Font, this fight represents an opportunity to slam the door in the face of a hungry contender and prove that he is a worthy top-five contender with the skills to beat other elites and near elites in the bantamweight ranks.

Fighting Styles

Marlon Vera is a tricky fighter to peg, as he often starts a bit slow, working behind low kicks, long tepes to the body, and uncommitted jabs. However, when he begins to get hit and get into the rhythm of a fight, he becomes a dangerous striker with a variety of tools to close distance and lock up nasty clinches around the head and the arm wherein he will rip away at the body with punches and knees and the head with elbows from all angles. Vera also has demonstrated submission proficiency, securing 4 UFC wins via SUB including as recently as summer 2019 (vs. Noelhin Hernandez). Vera is a black belt with some takedown ability, and a willingness to play from his back using slick submission entries and elbows to punish opponents for TD attempts.

Rob Font on the other hand is a classic style New England Cartel boxer, utilizing short, snappy combinations, a serious probing jab, tight body punching, and clever off-beat timing to land big punches on his opposition and keep himself at optimal distance for boxing opponents. Font is a big bantamweight used to having size and reach advantages over his opponents, and he lordes that fact over them with a constant jab, high-pressure boxing offense, and a willingness to mix in TD attempts and occasional submission attempts, having secured one UFC win via guillotine choke over the tough and skilled Douglas Silva de Andrade.

Vera vs. Font Odds

Font opened for this fight a -175 (63.6%) favorite on offshore markets and -150 (60%) on domestic markets with the comeback on Chito Vera opening between +130 (43.5%) and +150 (40%). Currently, the market average price on Rob Font rests between -120 (54.6%) and -135 (57.5%) while the market average price on Chito Vera remains between +100 (50%) and +115 (46.5%). Historically speaking, Rob Font has been a highly performing UFC favorite, boasting a  6-2 record (75% win rate) with a 20% ROI at average odds of -166 (62.4%). Chito Vera on the other hand has been an undervalued UFC underdog in his own right, securing a 3-4 record (43% win rate) with a 24% ROI at average odds of +185 (35.1%). 

If you backed Rob Font on the money line in all of his UFC bouts, he has well outperformed his odds, posting a 9-4 UFC record (69% win rate), with a 28.9% ROI at average odds of -121 (54.8%). Chito Vera on the other hand has posted a 12-6 UFC record (67% win rate) with a 27.1% ROI at average odds of -115 (53.5%). In other words, these guys have both overperformed expectations, but neither has distanced themselves from one another

Stats To Know

Chito spends more of his overall fight time grappling, and he also spends more time on top when he achieves TD’s. Stats support the idea that Vera is more offensive with his use of submission threats than Font, both in his success rate when attempting submissions and his willingness to attempt submissions both from his back and from dominant positions. 

Font’s biggest advantage on paper is his insane work rate (attempting 6 more strikes than Chito per minute spent at distance 16.2 vs. 10.5) and landing 2.5 more strikes per minute, Font is less powerful (.8 vs. 1.2% KD rate for Chito) & durable (.5% vs. 0% for Opponent KD rate favoring Chito). 

Level of competition favors Font across the board. Font has defeated 9 fighters with a combined 67% win rate whereas Chito has defeated 12 fighters with a combined 54% win rate. Font’s UFC competition has won at a 65% rate while Chito’s opponents have a combined 57% win rate.

Training

Font is training with the very respectable New England Cartel and a cast of solid professional training partners. He is a BJJ brown belt under his friend and training partner Nick Fiore (Renzo Gracie New Hampshire Black Belt instructor/MMA fighter) and a longtime pupil of Tyson Chartier. He works with the likes of Calvin Kattar, Randy Costa, Tom Pagliarulo (3-1 Pro), Conor Matthews (5-0 Pro), and Carlos Canedlario (8-1 Pro; Also on the fight card). He works on his strength and conditioning with Coach Mike Perry and the Lauzon brothers.

Vera is training at Ruka Gym (RVCA) in a camp built around him (formerly of team Oyama). He has been a boxing pupil of championship coach Jason Parillo, and his striking and movement have improved markedly under his tutelage. He is also a BJJ black belt cross training his jiu jitsu gi and no gi with a world class cast of characters that has included the Routulo brothers, the Mendes brothers, the Diaz brothers, Cole Abate, Steven Gomez, MacKenzie Dern, Kaynan Duarte, Nick Maximov, and D-1 National Champion Mike Macchiavelo.

X-Factors

I believe that Chito Vera is the meaner, more cutthroat fighter with more finishing ability and more killer instinct. I also believe that Rob Font is somewhat questionable in his durability to the body, as was evidenced in the Munhoz, Aldo, and Lineker fights. Chito Vera is a relentless body attacker, and his pace and pressure will only look to build in a small cage and a five round atmosphere. Font is making a very quick turnaround after taking a beating from Jose Aldo and he will have his hands full with Chito in the clinch, the dirty boxing, the grappling, and most especially the championship rounds.

Vera vs. Font Prediction and Picks

 I believe that Chito is ready for this five round showcase and primed to exploit an aging but talented competitor in Rob Font, whose motivation may be at a low point given his title aspirations were halted if not crushed in his last outing a short while ago. I think if Chito’s insane level of durability can hold up through the early jabbing onslaught of Font, he will be able to chip away, work his way into the fight, and eventually fold Rob Font with either a series of body shots or a nasty submission attempt. Give me Chito Vera via SUB3 (Triangle Choke)

Best Bet:

Chito Vera ML @+116 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chito to Win ITD @+333 (Bet365)

Sneaky Prop:

Chito Vera Wins by SUB @+900 (Unibet)