UFC Columbus Odds: Blaydes vs. Daukaus Main Event Preview

MMA betting expert Liam Heslin takes you inside the octagon for an early look at UFC Columbus odds for Blaydes vs. Daukaus, Saturday night’s main event. Check out our BetMGM bonus to get a $1000 risk-free bet!

As UFC London showed us last Saturday, the UFC is best served as a traveling roadshow in front of ravenous, longing fans that have been deprived of exciting UFC action for as long as the Covid-19 pandemic (often even longer than that). By my cursory glance over the UFC past events list, I don’t believe the UFC has been to Columbus, Ohio since UFC 82: Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson in March of 2008! UFC 203 featured Cleveland’s own Stipe Miocic in a championship title defense against Alistiar Overeem in his native city, so it is not as though the Ohio market has been forgotten wholesale. However, Columbus has been promised a show since March of 2019, when Covid-19 lockdowns forced the UFC to move the event from Columbus to Las Vegas. Now, two years later, and nearly 14 years since they last touched down in Columbus, the UFC will return with a heavyweight showcase fight between top ten contenders “The Dark Horse” Chris Daukaus and Curtis “Razor” Blaydes.

The event will also feature the homecoming of Ohio’s own Matt “The Immortal” Brown, who will be taking on fellow action fighter Bryan “Bam Bam” Barberena in a welterweight matchup that promises fireworks. Brown secured a vicious knockout over Dhiego Lima in his last bout, setting him up for this showcase opportunity against the tough and durable Barberena, himself coming off a win over the previously undefeated Darian Weeks (5-0). Brown and Barberena both possess a kill or be killed style, so the pairing is likely to produce a barn burner of a matchup. The last time Matt Brown was featured as a headliner for a UFC event in Ohio, he stormed back on Erick Silva in epic fashion to come back and finish him after being dropped badly by body shots early in Rd. 1. If he can muster a fraction of the excitement he produced that night, he may be looking at a fifty thousand dollar bonus for fight of the night. 

How We Got Here: Blaydes vs. Daukaus Main Event

The original main event for this card was a light heavyweight title eliminator between Aleksander “The Rocket” Rakic and the former champion Jan Blachowicz, the two hundred five pound purveyor of “legendary Polish power.” However, after an injury forced Blachowicz off the card, the promotion elected to fall back on their favorite strategy for booking generic fight night main events: “Who are the two highest ranked heavyweights we can get to fight one another that don’t already have a fight booked?” In this instance, in steps Chris “The Dark Horse” Daukaus, a man whose fast ascent up the ranks at heavyweight was stopped suddenly and violently at the hands of Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis in a December clash between the two combatants. He is now making a quick turnaround (~3 months or 93 days) to face arguably the best wrestler in the division, Curtis “Razor” Blaydes. Blaydes is familiar with the position that Daukaus now finds himself in; prior to his last victory over Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstriuk, Blaydes had been viciously knocked out by Derrick Lewis in even more devastating fashion than Mr. Daukaus.

Both men have different reasons to be hungry for a win. Beginning with Curtis Blaydes, he understands that the UFC is in no hurry to push or promote him. Blaydes has been vocal about issues like fighter pay, brain damage, and a lack of even handed and meritocratic matchmaking procedures. In concert with other reasons, this explains why Blaydes is often used as a measuring stick for other fighters the UFC may consider pushing as prospects or contenders within the division. In many ways, Curtis Blaydes represents the most elite gatekeeper of the heavyweight division. Unfortunately for Blaydes, he has two losses to Francis Ngannou inside the distance and with more than two years separating the two bouts. In other words, barring turnover at the championship level, Blaydes is likely to need to continue stacking top ten wins to remain relevant in the division.

Chris Daukaus is obviously hungry for a win here, as his momentum in the division was halted rapidly at the hands of the UFC knockout king Derrick Lewis. Prior to that bout, Daukaus had amassed four quick UFC knockouts, including over journeyman Parker Porter (3-1 UFC) as well as ranked heavyweights Aleksei Olenik (8-7 UFC) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-4 UFC). Daukaus is the older fighter between himself and Blaydes at 32 years of age, so his time to make his mark on the heavyweight division may be sooner rather than later. If he is able to turn his second UFC main event opportunity into a win, he can recapture a great deal of the momentum that brought him into the top 10 and potentially secure himself a massive fight against one of the other emerging prospects (Tom Aspinall, Sergey Pavlovich) or established names in the heavyweight division (Stipe Miocic, Cyril Gane, Tai Tuivasa). Daukaus will be highly motivated to get back on track in this spot and take the #4 ranking out from under Curtis Blaydes. 

UFC Columbus Odds

• Curtis Blaydes (–335), Unibet Sportsbook
• Chris Daukaus (+300), Caesars Sportsbook

Looking back at Curtis Blaydes career, I can only find two instances in which MMA oddsmakers opened him as the betting underdog. He opened as an even money underdog +100 (50%) against Alistair Overeem before being bet out to a -200 (66.7%) favorite by fight time. He also opened as a +115 (46.5%) underdog in his rematch against Francis Ngannou in 2018, but was once again steamed out to a -243 (70.9%) betting favorite (despite going on to lose that fight via KO1). The bottom line? The betting public loves them some Curtis Blaydes. 

Blades (-335) at Unibet, BetRivers

Blaydes opened as a -300 (75%) favorite against Derrick Lewis, but he was bet all the way out to -413 (80.5%) on fight night before being knocked out in harrowing fashion by a vicious counter uppercut that stiffened him to his core. The issue for Blaydes opponents is that barring a KO in the first two rounds, Blaydes has never lost. Blaydes has never won a split decision either. He normally loses in devastating fashion or largely dominates his opponents using superior wrestling and grinding top pressure. Blaydes opened for this fight as a -300 (75%) favorite, and he is currently available on the market at prices ranging from -410 (80.4%) to -335 (77%). The best market prices and betting lines for Curtis Blaydes are available on BetRivers and Unibet Sportsbooks.

Chris Daukaus is someone that I have personally been backing on the money line ever since he blasted out Parker Porter in the first round of his UFC debut (both men debuted that night at UFC 252). I gave one unit back untracked on Daukaus money line against Derrick Lewis, but I am still up big on his fights having backed him at +220 against Rodrigo Nascimento (KO1), at -175 against Shamil Abdurakhimov (KO2), and at -160 against Aleksei Olenik (KO1), as well as on the prop market by KO in many of those instances. 

So far in the UFC, Daukaus has demonstrated a willingness to trade in the pocket and brawl because he is confident at boxing range and he possesses fast, powerful hands that can put opponents away early. However, throughout his career, Daukaus has shown somewhat questionable cardio, securing only one win via three round unanimous decision (vs. 2-1 Jeff Blachly in CFFC62 in 2016). Not unlike Tom Aspinall last week, Daukaus has done all of his work in the first two rounds. However, unlike Aspinall, Daukaus shows four losses inside the distance, three times due to strikes (including in December against Derrick Lewis) and once due to submission (Rd. 2 SUB loss vs. 0-0 Shawn Teed at CFFC53 in 2015). 

Daukaus (+335) at FanDuel, Caesars

Daukaus opened for this fight as a +250 (28.57%) underdog, but as money has flooded in on Blaydes, he has inflated out to a market average of +281 (26.25%). Daukaus is variably priced from +250 (~28.6%) to +310 (~24.4%) on the money line. If this price were to hold, it would represent far and away the biggest underdog distinction of Daukaus’s short UFC run. Against Rodrigo Nascimento, he closed between +190 and +200 on the money line, and he knocked him out in the first round. Since then, Daukaus has closed a betting favorite against three ranked fighters (albeit somewhat favorable matchups in aging grapplers) at greater than 60% indication. The best domestic market price available on Daukaus is +300 (25%) on FanDuel and Caesar’s Sportsbook. 

If you are thinking about playing Daukaus, you may want to wait as the money has been trickling in on Blaydes since odds opened on the fight. Blaydes has had the market move in his favor in every UFC booking since he debuted against Francis Ngannou in 2016. If however you are on the Curtis Blaydes side here, you may want to get involved earlier rather than later, as this line could continue to blow out over the course of fight week. Stay tuned for my technical analysis and official prediction later this week!