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UFC Fight Night Odds Preview: Luque vs. Muhammad Prediction

Liam Heslin Sat 4/16 3:19am PT
UFC Fight Night odds
(Image Credit: Imagn)

MMA betting expert Liam Heslin takes you inside the octagon, breaking down UFC Fight Night odds and giving you his Luque vs. Muhammad Prediction. Check out our BetMGM bonus to get a $1000 risk-free bet!

Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad have been slowly climbing their way through a crowded welterweight field towards five round main events and title fights. Luque has been the death dealer of 170lb., racking up an insane number of finishes with his blood and guts fighting style, putting himself in the fire of exchanges and coming out the other side with a bevvy of highlight reel finishes. Muhammad on the other hand has been slowly, methodically picking his opponents off with strong game planning, cardio, and consistency. Muhammad has turned into something of a volume and pressure based wrestling threat, using the strength of takedowns and control time to defeat Stephen Wonderboy Thompson as an underdog. Now Muhammad gets the underdog distinction once again. The question remains, is he a good bet?

UFC Fight Night Main Event Preview

Historically speaking, Belal Muhammad has been a fairly solid bet as an underdog. Belal has been an underdog 6 times in the UFC, producing a 3-3 record at an average odds of +145 (right around the same odds this weekend) for an ROI of 34.2%. As an overall betting commodity in the UFC, Belal has been an average odds of -132 at a record of 11-3 (56.9% expected win rate vs. 79% actual win rate). If you flat bet Muhammad on the ML in the UFC, he has returned a very respectable 42.8% ROI, meaning he has been an even more productive bet as a favorite than an underdog despite being profitable in both categories.

Vicente Luque on the other hand has the extremely rare distinction of only having been an underdog in one UFC fight despite having seventeen fights with the promotion under his belt. Luque lost his one and only opportunity as a +105 underdog against Stephen Wonderboy Thompson in 2019. Otherwise, he has been the picture of consistency in the welterweight division. Luque has produced a 29% ROI as a UFC favorite despite the fact that he has been favored in 16/17 UFC fights. He has done so by turning in a 14-2 record as a favorite (Avg. odds -212; ~68% expected win rate). Luque’s actual win rate in the UFC is a staggering 82%, with 92.9% of his UFC wins occurring inside the distance. These numbers tell us that Luque is an insanely productive finisher who has been highly respected for his danger factor since he arrived in the UFC.

Luque vs. Muhammad Odds Breakdown

The first time these gentlemen fought, Luque was a -110 pick em price and knocked out Belal Muhammad in the very firsrt round. Now, for the rematch several years in the making, oddsmakers dropped -210 (67.7%)  Luque and +180 (35.7%)  Muhammad on the opener. The betting public has come in hard behind the Muhammad side. Reasons could include Luque’s propensity to fight close and rely on finishes while Muhammad relies on decision optics. Or it could be the public believing in Muhammad’s improvements in wrestling/conditioning/game planning. Whatever the case, real dollars have pushed the average odds to -181 (64.4%) for Luque and +152 (39.7%) for Muhammad.

Looking to improve a price on either one of these guys. Props may have the answer.

How to Bet Luque vs. Muhammad

Muhammad is not much of a finisher, but he will be pursuing one tonight over five rounds. Check out the 4/5/Dec props for Belal, the late round finish props if you are feeling dangerous, or the Belal decision only market if you want to mitigate downside risk.

If Luque wins this fight, presumably it is not because he radically reforms himself as a fighter and tries to win each individual minute. It is healthy to assume that Luque’s primary win equity in this fight will be a finish as he is the most potent and lethal finisher in the division, and he has proven before that he can separate Belal from consciousness in ways no other fighter can claim. 

I am expecting an incredible main event on Saturday, and I will be playing the Under 4.5 Rds. at near even money to cover the larger possibility of a Luque finish and the smaller possibility of a Belal comeback finish in the later rounds.