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UFC London Odds: Volkov vs. Aspinall Main Event Prediction

Liam Heslin Sat 3/19 6:08am PT
UFC London odds and main event prediction.
(Image Credit: Imagn)

MMA betting expert Liam Heslin is here to break down the UFC odds for Saturday’s main event in London: Volkov vs. Aspinall.

The UFC is finally headed out of the United States, and for once the destination isn’t Fight Island in Abu Dhabi! The octagon finally makes its long awaited return to the O2 Arena in London, England in front of a sold-out crowd. European fighters are featured in a large portion of the event’s bouts, and many of the local fighters have been given favorable matchups as a platform for building their name value and star power in their native market. The main event preview for this week is no different, as surging heavyweight prospect Tom Aspinall will be featured in a high stakes heavyweight tilt against divisional elite Alexander Volkov, a well tested Russian striker with nearly four times the professional experience of his British adversary. 

Tom Aspinall has quickly accrued a 4-0 record inside the octagon since debuting in July of 2020 against Jake Collier. Volkov on the other hand has been in the UFC since November of 2016, having entered the octagon with 32 fights already under his belt. Therein lies the familiar intrigue; will the young prospect continue his ascent through the division, or will the seasoned veteran turn back the scrappy upstart?

UFC London Main Event Preview: Volkov +110 vs. Aspinal -130

Aspinall has knocked out three UFC opponents in Jake Collier, Alan Baudot, and Sergey Spivac. However, these opponents are a combined 7-7-1 in UFC competition with each of them having been stopped already due to strikes in the UFC, so Aspinall wasn’t exactly breaking new ground in doing so. Clearly Aspinall has potent offense, but extended exchanges with Arlovski and poor reactions to the blitz attack made me think Aspinall is more effective as an offensive striker than a defensive striker. He also got hit cleanly by Baudot before Baudot put himself out of position and got finished. Volkov’s entire run through the UFC has seemed to be against a higher level of competition, taking on the likes of Cyril Gane, Marcin Tybura, Curtis Blaydes, Walt Harris, Derrick Lewis, Alistair Overeem, and Fabricio Werdum with mixed degrees of success. 

Striking

Both men are credible strikers in this matchup, but Aspinall is clearly the more dangerous striker of the two, especially early. Aspinall has an impressive 4.2% KD rate (compared to .4% for Volkov) but he has a very limited sample size and a much lower level of competition. Andrei Arlovski was clearly hurt by Aspinall’s strikes in round one, but Aspinall was unable to knock him down or get him out of there. In fact, he nearly spent himself trying to unload with repetitive right hooks to the body as opposed to using shot selection and picking his spots. That being said, it is clear that Aspinall is solid if unproven at the highest level. He also has excellent hand speed for the heavyweight division, an attribute which may come in handy against a range based kickboxer like Alexander Volkov. His timing when he hurts someone is pretty impeccable; he was able to land a knee to the midsection and a right elbow behind it on the offbeat against Spivac to finish him, and he did the same to Collier with a 1-2 behind the intercepting knee, demonstrating that his knowledge of range and his ability to manage distance are high level.

Volkov has collected 22 of his 34 professional victories via KO, but he is not a massive single shot striker. Volkov is the more reliable volume striker, attempting more than 11 strikes per minute compared to less than 9 per minute from Aspinall. Instead, he tends to methodically pick people apart by targeting their legs, their body, and their head with a relentless onslaught of jabs, 1-2’s, counter hooks and uppercuts, low kicks, and tepes to the body. He mixes in high kicks and round kicks to the body when appropriate, but he prefers to operate with straight shots. Volkov has only suffered two knockdowns in the UFC; the first in his debut against Timothy Johnson and the most recent in his only KO loss against Derrick Lewis in 2018. Throughout a 43-fight career, Volkov has only been stopped twice due to strikes. The first was in 2012 against Vitaly Minakov (one of the best heavyweights outside of the UFC) in a Bellator Heavyweight Title Fight and the only other was the aforementioned comeback win from Derrick Lewis in a fight where he was getting dominated prior to the stoppage in round three. Volkov has only delivered 4KO’s in 8 UFC wins, so Aspinall is only one KO shy of matching Volkov’s tally despite having half the fights.

Grappling

Aspinall has been training martial arts and specifically jiu jitsu seriously since his late teens. He is a BJJ blackbelt under his father, and he has demonstrated an ability to grapple in some of his fights, performing sweeps and submissions when taken down regionally, and finding a takedown of his own against Andrei Arlovski in the UFC. Aspinall’s stats in the grappling look phenomenal because of his limited sample size; he has a 100% takedown defense on 2 attempts from Sergey Spivac that were quite desperate, not set up, and from well outside of range. He is averaging 2.7 takedowns per minute based on securing 1 takedown a piece against Alan Baudot (after rocking him) and Andrei Arlovski (took Andrei by surprise in Rd. 2). That being said, his grappling remains untested at the UFC level. Holes were shown in multiple fights on the regional scene, as he was easily thrown (lateral dropped) by Ricky King in his second pro fight before submitting him with a heel hook off his back, and he was also taken down multiple times by Stuart Austin, a fighter 29 pounds lighter than him. Aspinall was soundly outwrestled and out grappled in that bout in 2015 despite having 8 bouts of professional and amateur (3/8 pro fights) experience. Austin was obviously the more experienced pro, but he was also significantly smaller and able to force a submission out of Aspinall in the opening 7.5 minutes. Moreover, the loss to Stuart Austin hasn’t aged great; he was 8-2 when he beat Aspinall and he currently sits at 15-7 with 6 losses via KO stoppage. 

Alexander Volkov is a BJJ Brown Belt and a well-tested grappler at the UFC level. Volkov has secured takedowns in five of his UFC bouts, and he has finished the likes of Denis Smoldarev (11-1 at the time) and Blagoy Ivanov (18-4; 2-3 UFC) via submission prior to arriving in the big show. Despite giving up 14 takedowns against heavyweight wrestling stand out Curtis Blaydes, Volkov impressed by returning to his feet continuously, forcing Blaydes to work, and eventually taking Blaydes down and putting him in danger in the later rounds. Volkov has maintained an impressive 73% takedown defense despite a robust strength of schedule and a massive 6.7 takedown attempts faced per fifteen minutes. His last fight he blanked Tybura on 16 takedown attempts, also blanking Cyril Gane on 4 attempts and Overeem/Harris on one attempt a piece. He has gained weight over time in the UFC, making his base more rooted to the ground and his ability to dig underhooks and circle off the fence much more effective. I believe that Aspinall will struggle to take Volkov down, particularly in the later rounds. Volkov may have sneaky takedown potential late, as he has shown a willingness and ability to trip from the overhook, to whip people into trips from the double collar tie, and to wrap the body lock for stepping outside trips and basic bear hugs. If he gets on top of Aspinall, he can use his length for ground and pound.

UFC London Odds: Volkov +110 vs. Aspinal -130

Volkov opened as a -145 (59.2%) for this fight on multiple books, and action has been slowly but steadily creeping in on the underdog Tom Aspinall +124 (44.6%). In fact, action has been steady such that Aspinall has flipped to a market average of -130 (56.5%), a large market correction. Volkov is now available at a market average of +109 (47.9%), which seems short for an experienced veteran holding court against an untested but talented prospect.

Volokv has gone off as a money line average of -115 (53.5%) in the UFC despite accruing an impressive record of 8-3 in the organization (73% win rate, 19.5% better than expectation). Aspinal on the other hand has accrued an excellent 4-0 record, but the level of competition and the odds range reflect that every fight was a fight that he was expected to win. Aspinall had opened as a 60% or greater favorite for every UFC fight prior (avg. odds of -272 or 73.1%). I think it is telling that sportsbooks opened him as an underdog here. This is a massive step up in competition, and you are being asked to trust hand speed and promise rather than hard data here if you are supporting the Aspinall side. I am not afraid of betting potential into credentials, but I need to see an ability to push for 15 minutes or defeat a high-level opponent before I can back a prospect like Aspinall at this price.

The reason people are backing Aspinall is obvious; Aspinall has returned his moneyline backers a 37% ROI across four fights with very little need to sweat the result. Volkov on the other hand is 2-2 as a UFC underdog with a 31.3% ROI in that odds distinction and a 33.1% ROI overall in the organization. From a totals perspective, this fight is hard to read. On the one hand, every Aspinall fight has gone under the betting total and not gone the distance. On the other hand, Volkov has gone the distance in more than half of his UFC bouts, and gone over the betting total in only 2 of 11 fights. For that reason, I would be interested in playing a fight doesn’t go the distance much more than an over or an under in this fight. I believe both fighters have a path to finish, with Aspinall’s finish equity being early in the fight and Volkov’s finish equity beginning near the midpoint and carrying through the end of the fight. I won’t be playing it personally, but from a trend betting perspective, Volkov fight over’s have been a tremendous long term investment. 

UFC Main Event Prediction 

My main event predictions this year have been pretty spot on, only having whiffed on Masvidal thus far. We got back on track last week with an easy call on Ankalaev, but we whiffed the method of victory. Very motivated to get back on track this week. I am going to be picking the underdog here, but not without some hesitation. I think that Volkov will be able to take over this fight late if he is able to be defensively sound, strategic, and evasive early. Aspinall likes to feint entries in order to set up blitzes and counters. If Volkov can use long range tools like the jab, the tepe, and the outside low kick, he can slow down Aspinall, limit his mobility, and drag him into deeper waters where he is untested. Explosive burst strikers with limited experience are not the kind of fighters I want to back until I see them succeed on a high level. Volkov has been historically durable, able to claw his way back into fights, and able to win decisions and drown opponents late. His best UFC performance to date was a fourth-round stoppage of former champion Fabricio Werdum in a back and forth main event war in 2018. Volkov is being written off because of his age and a tepid recent performance against Marcin Tybura, but I believe he still has the goods to compete at heavyweight. 

I will take Alexander Volkov to win this fight by TKO3 (Tepe to the Solar Plexus)

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The Bet(s)

I will be placing a small bet on the Volkov ML as an underdog, and if he survives the first round I will be likely to place a more sizeable live wager on Volkov as Aspinall is most dangerous in the first 5 minutes when his speed, power, and stamina bars remain full. If you are looking to fade a popular trend, consider playing the Fight Does Not Go To Decision, available as low as -150 (60%) on the market. This fight is between two heavyweights with a combined record of 36 wins and 4 losses inside the distance. That’s 40 of 56 (71.4% or roughly -250) professional bouts that have ended inside the distance between them.