UFC Vegas 48 Betting Preview: Odds, Props Update
MMA betting expert Liam Heslin previews the action for the main event at UFC Vegas 48. Get the best odds and other betting tips for Walker vs. Hill.
The UFC is back in our lives once again for a Saturday showcase in the light heavyweight division, featuring Johnny Walker and “Sweet Dreams” Jamahal Hill in tonight’s UFC Vegas 48 card. Both fighters are ranked in the top fifteen of the division, and they are trying to distance themselves from losses and advance towards relevant top ten matchups.
Johnny Walker was defeated in his last bout by number five ranked Thiago “Marretta” Santos over the course of a tepid five-round kickboxing match in October of last year. Jamahal Hill on the other hand is coming off a resounding win over Jimmy Crute in December. Hill became the first man to ever finish Jimmy Crute with strikes, knocking him out in brutal fashion and destroying his face in the process. However, Hill was technically finished due to strikes in the first round of a June bout against esteemed divisional grappler and number eleven ranked Paul Craig (the fight should have been ruled a technical submission as Hill’s elbow was dislocated by an armbar long before the referee intervened). That is a performance he would like to distance himself from, as it halted an otherwise steady rise through the division, besting the likes of Ovince St. Preux and Klidson Abreu (funny enough, Abreu actually submitted Walker in the second round of their 2015 bout) en route to his first UFC main event showcase.
UFC Vegas 48 Odds Preview
Most of the early books to price this fight opened Jamahal Hill around the -240 favorite tag (~70.6%), with the comeback on Johnny Walker sitting at around +190 (~34.5%). The line has had a bit of tug of war since then, with Hill getting as high as -300 (75%) in some places. Currently, the market average price on Jamahal Hill sits at -252 (~71.6%), with the average comeback on Johnny Walker hanging at +203 (33%).
The trend in the line movement has been that early action pushed the price up on Hill, and ever since the price has been slowly but steadily creeping down on Walker market-wide (since late January).
Johnny Walker
Walker finds himself in the relatively unfamiliar position of being the betting underdog in this UFC Vegas 48 match, having closed the favorite in 5 of his 7 bouts. Walker has a UFC record of 4-3, and that includes 3-2 as a betting favorite and 1-1 as a betting underdog. He lost his last bout against Thiago Santos as a short underdog in a closely contested decision, so it seems he was priced appropriately by the market in that fight.
The other fight where he was priced an underdog was his UFC debut against Khalil Rountree, so it is again understandable why the unknown commodity (at the time) in Walker was priced as the dog.
The market has incorrectly priced Walker as a favorite twice in recent bouts. Corey Anderson knocked out Walker in the very first round in November of 2019, and he had an ugly grappling affair with Krylov in March of 2020 in which he was soundly defeated and he completely gassed. The low pace of the Santos fight kept it competitive, but he was unable to hurt Santos and threaten him with a finish despite the fact that Santos is 38 and well past his prime.
Certainly the wide nature of the line is some reason for pause in the highly volatile light heavyweight class. Walker has outperformed his odds expectation, but only by a small margin. If you flat bet Johnny Walker on the money line through 7 UFC bouts, you would have netted around an 8% ROI.
Jamahal Hill
On the other side of this main event is Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill, another highly respected commodity on the betting market.
Hill has closed a favorite in every UFC bout since his debut against Darko Stosic except for his last fight against Jimmy Crute. Hill has closed at an average price of -144 (~59%) despite winning at an 83% clip through 6 UFC bouts (5-1). When Jamahal Hill lost to Paul Craig, he did so as a -235 (~70%) favorite on the money line.
Hill’s overconfidence cost him dearly in the Craig fight, as he was willing to engage in a grappling match and ended up getting caught and submitted quickly by arguably the second-best grappler in the division behind the champion Glover Teixeira. However, in his other UFC fights, he has met or exceeded his money line expectations in large part, delivering brutal early knock outs of Ovince St. Preux (~ -170) and Klidson Abreu (~ -140) as a short favorite.
Simply put, Hill has delivered for his backers thus far in the UFC. If you flat bet on Jamahal Hill on the money line in every UFC bout he has had, you would have netted greater than a 50% ROI. Even excluding the underdog performance against Jimmy Crute, Hill has returned 33% ROI as a UFC favorite through a 6 fight sample size.
Prop Hunting
- The widely available total for this fight appears to be the 1.5 rounds, which is currently juiced towards the Over at about -140 (~58%) market-wide. The Under can be had for a market average of +110 (47.6%), with a handful of books still listing +120 (~45.5%).
- This fight is highly juiced to end inside the distance, with the fight does not go to decision currently priced at a market average of -450 (81%) with the comeback on the fight does go to decision sitting at a market average of +300 (25%).
- Johnny Walker’s last fight against Thiago Santos closed at a market average of -603 (~85.8%) to end inside the distance, with the comeback on fight goes to decision CASHING at a market average of +393 (~20.3%).
- Five of Johnny Walker’s fights have ended in the very first round, but the two that left the first round ended up seeing the judges’ scorecards (over three rounds vs. Krylov and over five rounds last time out against Santos).
- Only Jamahal Hill’s UFC debut against the wrestling heavy attack of Darko Stosic saw the fifteen minute distance. Otherwise, Jamahal Hill has been an under machine, cashing the under at plus money against Paul Craig in a loss and Klidson Abreu in a win.
- Walker to win inside the distance is priced at +275 (~26.7%) market wide, but it can be had for the more desirable +300 (25%) number on DraftKings Sportsbook if you are interested in backing Johnny Walker. Considering his best available “wins by knockout” line is +330 (~23.3%), I would simply opt for the inside the distance or Walker rounds props (early groupings or individual).
- Walker to win the fight by DEC is currently +1100 (~8.3%), with the Hill DEC line sitting at +550 (~15.4%). This gap is probably based on the volume difference between the two fighters (with Hill being significantly more active), with Walker being more reliant on single bursts of effective offense. I don’t see this fight seeing the scorecards a high percentage of the time, but given Walker’s evasive and reserved approach to his last fight, some consideration must be paid to a potential stinker fight in which Hill is chasing Walker around the octagon all night.
- Hill to win the fight inside the distance is currently priced at a market average of -154 (60.6%), which makes sense given that he is the favorite and the fight is significantly juiced to the under and the doesn’t go. The “wins by knockout” line is priced at -142 (~58.7%) on the market average, so just opt for the ITD for a few extra cents of insurance to cover flukey outcomes. Hill “to win by SUB” is unlikely as he is the less credentialed (by belt system) BJJ practitioner of the two. However, the old MMA adage is that if you punch a brown belt once, he becomes a purple belt, and so on back to white belt. If Hill hurts Walker, he could end up submitting him on the ground. We have never seen Hill secure a submission as a professional before, but he has demonstrated some grappling core competencies against Stosic. I will not by playing it, but I can’t blame anyone for a small poke or free bet on Hill SUB at +3400 (2.9%) on FanDuel, a significant outlier from the market. No other book has greater than 20 to 1 odds on Hill to win by SUB. I think it is a low percentage outcome, but I figured it was worth pointing out the discrepancy.