UFC Vegas 50 Odds and Props: Santos vs. Ankalaev Preview, Picks and Prediction

MMA betting expert Liam Heslin is here to break down UFC Vegas 50 odds for Saturday night’s main event: Santos vs. Ankalaev.

The light heavyweight division in the UFC is currently stewarded by the oldest weight class champion in the organization: forty-two-year-old Glover Teixeira. Cognizant of this fact, the UFC has been trying to groom and develop younger light heavyweight prospects like Aleksandr Rakic and Jamahal Hill to potentially challenge for the belt in the near future.

Enter Magomed Ankalaev, this weekend’s main event headliner and the athlete upon which the card was built. Ankalaev is the best hope for Russian mixed martial arts at the 205-pound division; he carries massive power in both hands, he has functional wrestling and heavy top pressure, and he has a clever and elusive striking style.

In addition to all his skills, Ankalaev has important attributes for fighting, like a castiron chin, solid cardio, clever footwork, and good quickness for a man of his size. After accruing seven UFC wins in eight outings, he has ascended to his first UFC main event, towing an incredibly impressive professional record of 16 wins and only one defeat.

Ankalaev will be holding court against the seasoned Thiago “Maretta” Santos, a UFC mainstay since his 2013 stint on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil. Santos’ claim to fame in the UFC is that he finished former champion Jan Blachowicz via TKO2 and he took one judge’s scorecard off Jon Jones in his UFC light heavyweight title fight (I believe he is the only man to do so in MMA history).

UFC Vegas 50 Odds: Santos vs. Ankaleav

Timing is everything in mixed martial arts. If this fight had taken place just a few years earlier, it is very likely the fight would have been lined much closer. Thiago Santos has been favored in 14/22 (63.6%) UFC fights, but he will be a significant underdog to Magomed Ankalaev this weekend. This is more so a function of the betting market respecting Ankalaev than purely fading Thiago Santos.

Santos

Santos was actually favored to beat Johnny Walker in his last fight, and he was able to do so over the course of five rounds. However, Walker gave Santos a very tepid paced kickboxing match from the outside. When we saw Aleksandr Rakic square off with Thiago Santos, Santos was a plus money underdog and lost a unanimous decision. When Santos was a significant favorite against Glover Teixiera, he ended up giving up  4 takedowns and nine minutes of control time en route to a fourth-round submission loss.

Santos has not won a fight by finish since February of 2019, so it has been three years since he proved himself a capable UFC finisher. Santos is 14-8 overall in the UFC (64% win rate), but when you just look at his light heavyweight run, Santos is 4-3 (57.1% win rate). Most of Thiago’s body of work is in the middleweight division, but he has also competed as light as welterweight (170lb.) on the Ultimate Fighter Brazil in 2013. 

Ankalaev

Magomed Ankalaev on the other side is a fighter of whom much is expected. Ankalaev has won every round in his UFC career except the first round against Nikita Krylov. Otherwise, he has been extremely dominant in UFC bouts, winning every minute of a fight with Paul Craig before giving up a triangle choke with legitimately one second left on the clock (4:59 of Rd. 3).

The Craig fight, we give Ankalaev a pass because it was his UFC debut and Craig is the single most unique and dangerous grappling threat in the division. Most light heavyweights have little semblance of a guard, much less a highly functional and dangerous guard like Paul Craig (submissions off his back over Jamahal Hill, Magomed Ankalaev, and Kennedy Nzechekwu).

The rest of Ankalaev’s run has left little doubt. He bounced back with a first-round stoppage win over Marcin Prachnio (2-3 UFC), devastating him with strikes in brutal fashion. He would then cleanly defeat Southpaw banger Klidson Abreu (1-3 UFC) over a 15 minute decision, securing a takedown and a knockdown in the process. He then sent Dalcha “Champion” Lungiambula (2-2 UFC) back to the middleweight division, brutalizing him with pace, wrestling, and clever striking. The front kick to the face that closed the show will be on highlight reels for years to come. He secured one knockdown, one takedown, and a third-round stoppage victory. 

He would have his career temporarily sidelined by a needless pair of fights with Ion Cutelaba in which he secured two wins by KO/TKO and 2 knockdowns. After losing the first round against Kyrlov, he turned up in rounds two and three and secured three takedowns and 6 minutes of control time.

His last opportunity to step in the octagon came against former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir, and he cleanly defeated him, securing another knock down and another take down en route to his unanimous decision victory.

UFC Vegas 50 Preview and Predictions

Magomed Ankalaev is a dangerous switch stance Southpaw with a clever Southpaw double attack, using the threat of round kicks to the head and the body to introduce overhand lefts and rights. He also works behind a checking lead hook, a stiff jab, and a rear leg front kick that he can bring as high as his opponent’s chin (ask Dalcha). Additionally, he has a competent wrestling game informed by his national and international sambo accolades, his Dagestani Greco-Roman wrestling background, and an international master of sport in mixed martial arts.

Thiago Santos is a switch stance fighter, but he prefers to operate out of the orthodox stance. At his best, he is a blitzing, explosive puncher with a dangerous arsenal of kicks to the head, body, and legs. Santos has a military background, a Muay Thai black belt, and a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu. He is a credentialed martial artist on every level. However, when I look at this matchup, I see fighters going in opposite directions. 

On the one hand, Thiago Santos is 2-3 in his last five fights, while Magomed Ankalaev is 5-0 in his last five fights. Thiago Santos is 4-3 as a career light heavyweight compared to 16-1 for Magomed Ankalaev. Prior to arriving in the UFC, Ankalaev was already accruing “UFC level experience” on the Russian regionals and amatuer MMA scene by defeating Maxim Grishin (TK04), Wagner Prado (KO1), and Valentin Moldavsky (11-2 pro, just challenged for Bellator Heavyweight Title). Ankalaev was also in championship fights prior to arriving in the UFC, so the prospect of him being overwhelmed by a five-round atmosphere is less likely.

If the fight is taking place on the feet, I expect that Ankalaev will be the faster athlete and that he will hit with more power. Since his knees were surgically repaired twice over, the only knockdown Santos recorded was over 41 year old Glover Teixeira, and he was able to recover and submit Santos despite incurring a knockdown and serious damage.

Meanwhile, Santos has a 1.3% opponent knockdown rate compared to 0.0% for Ankalaev. This data point would be less relevant to me if I hadn’t seen Ankalaev eat massive shots on the chin without issue (once again, ask Dalcha).

Santos has a ridiculous knockdown rate, so I don’t want to pretend he has no chance to win this fight by KO. However, I believe that Ankalaev is a very difficult man to hurt or put away, so I favor him substantially on the feet.

If this fight takes place on the ground, Ankalaev is the fighter more likely to dictate from that position. Ankalaev has spent nearly 40% of his fight time in grappling positions, and has dominated those positions greater than 85% of the time. Santos meanwhile spends roughly 30% of his fight time in grappling positions, and he has conceded a -4% control differential to his opponents in the grappling. 

Santos vs. Ankalaev Line Movement

As FanDuel continues to try to force their way into the MMA opening lines market, they continue to drop gifts for the betting public. Ankalaev opened up a -158 favorite (61% indication) and has been bet out to a market average of -571 (85%).

Already, I know what you’re thinking. DAMN! That’s a big market correction.

A correction of 24% on a fighter’s implied win probability is a massive shift, so we want to investigate and be sure we are not chasing misguided steam. However, this line movement makes a lot more sense in context.

Ankalaev has been lined greater than -300 on three occasions so far in the UFC, and his average UFC odds have been -299 (74.9%). With his 88% win rate in the organization, he is still outperforming his lofty expectations.

Thiago Santos has an extremely impressive record as an underdog, going 3-5 (37.5% win rate) at an average odds of +263 (27.6% expected win rate) for a 62.3% ROI. However, upon further investigation, you will realize the last time Thiago Santos won a fight as a UFC underdog was against Jack Hermansson in 2017 at 185lb.

While the odds are quite high in favor of Ankalaev, I believe that the 85% market average indication makes sense. Thiago Santos is likely drawing dead here outside of a KO, which can be variably priced as a 10-15% outcome on a standard puncher’s chance.

UFC Vegas 50 Picks and Betting Tips

I really like Magomed Ankalaev to win this fight inside the distance. Ankalaev tends to be patient and thoughtful, but he often does explosive damage, secures dominant positions, and puts himself in a position to finish fights. In the fights he has failed to finish in the UFC, he was often facing more grappling resistance than he was expecting.

I believe that Ankalaev will have a clear advantage on the feet and a massive advantage on the ground. His cardio has checked out so far in the UFC. As I mentioned earlier, he secured a fourth-round TKO finish against the insanely durable Maxim Grishin (50+ pro fights, only been stopped with strikes 3 times). He has never secured a submission, but he should be the more capable ground fighter here and if he was ever to submit someone, this may be a good opportunity.

Santos has been an equal opportunity loser in MMA, meaning he has lost an equal share of fights by KO, SUB, and DEC. However, in a five-round atmosphere with a dangerous puncher like Ankalaev who is a stylistic nightmare, I like Ankalaev to get this done inside the distance, and most likely by KO.

• Ankalaev Inside the Distance @+110 on Caesars Sportsbook and Bet365 

Bonus Prop

For those of you who like to mitigate risk, you can also look at the fight does not go the distance line at a market average of -150 (60%). This is a light heavy-weight fight in which I view one fighter (Thiago Santos) as KO or bust and the other fighter (Magomed Ankalaev) as an extremely dangerous and underrated finisher. Couple that with the fact that this is clearly a market overreaction to Walker/Santos going the distance, and we have a recipe for a sound violence bet. Walker/Santos was lined to end inside the distance 80% of the time, and now we get a 20% line reduction with a better fighter in Ankalaev across from him. I like those odds. You can still find -130’s on the board at sportsbooks!

Prediction

Magomed Ankalaev defeats Thiago Santos via KO2 (high kick to GNP punches).