UFC Vegas 55 Odds: Holm vs. Vieira Predictions, Expert Picks, & Best Prop Bet

MMA betting expert Liam Heslin takes you inside the octagon to preview UFC Vegas 55 odds, alongside his Holm vs. Vieira predictions and best picks. Check out our BetMGM bonus to get a $1000 free UFC bet tonight!

UFC Vegas 55 Preview

Holly Holm has been a staple in the world of combat sports since the early-mid 2000’s she was named the Ring Magazine “Female Fighter of the Year” in consecutive years (2005 & 2006). By 2011 she had debuted in professional MMA, leaving a remarkable tally of 33 wins, 2 losses, and 3 draws in the boxing ring and 22 wins in kickboxing behind her to pursue a new challenge. In 2015, Holly Holm forever etched her name in the combat sports and mixed martial arts history book by ending the Ronda Rousey era as quickly as it had begun, outclassing the champion en route to a stunning head kick KO that sent shock waves through the world of free format fighting. 

However, if you start the examination of Holm’s career from the Rousey fight forward, the results have been a bit less stellar. Admittedly, after defending world boxing championships more than a dozen times, one can forgive Holly Holm for failing to defend the UFC bantamweight championship. After all, styles makes fights, and Miesha Tate was able to push a relentless twenty five minute pace and snatch a come from behind submission victory to unseat Holm shortly after she claimed the crown. Now, in a twist of fate, both of our competitors for Saturday’s main event have vanquished their opponent’s most devastating defeat. This main event has huge divisional implications, as we could easily see a title contender or one half of a future title eliminator emerge from this fight.

The half of this main event seemingly going unremarked upon this week is Ketlen Vieira. Vieira suffered a devastating loss by knockout to recent Holm victim Irene Aldana in the very first round of a December, 2019 meeting. However, prior to that bout, Vieira was seen as a legitimate future title challenger, as she was significantly favored over Aldanda at a market average of -243 (70.6%). Yes she got caught early and looked outgunned in that spot, but Aldana has shown that she has legit power and finishing upside both regionally and in the UFC. Against Holm, a primary boxer with good footwork, Aldana had no hope of winning. However, against someone like Vieira who is a marauding power striker with plus level grappling, wrestling, and judo, I can see the fight being much more competitive.

Holm vs. Vieira Odds Analysis

Holly Holm seems to be getting a ton of love in the betting market this weekend, and that makes sense from a theoretical standpoint. She opened in this fight as a -210 (67.7%) favorite and has been steadily bet down to a -250 across the board, with some books hanging as high as -260 (72.2%). A 5% move in the line can be a sharp indication, or it could be an indication that dog bettors are waiting for the apex of the line to get involved on the other side. Either way, Holm has been an extremely bankable betting commodity for people. Across a twelve fight sample size in the UFC, Holm is 7-5, returning an impressive 84.5% ROI to her money linebackers across that time horizon. The caveat I must include is that Holly Holm has one of the biggest upset wins in UFC history (underdog ROI of 224.75% despite 1-3 record as a dog) so her numbers are skewed when including that in the sample. Fear not Holm backers, even as a favorite, Holm does show a 6-2 record at an average odds of -215 (68.3%) for a 14.4% ROI. 

By the numbers, Ketlen Vieira has been a shockingly good underdog bet in the UFC. Through a 4 fight sample size as a UFC underdog, she is 4-0 with 1 win by submission and 3 wins by decision (1 split decision). Her average underdog price tag has been +133 (42.9%) on the money line and thus far she is winning at a 100% rate. Overall as a betting commodity, if you flat bet Ketlen Vieira in the UFC, you would have been profitable. She is 6-2 in the UFC at an average market price of -115 (53.5%) and winning at a 75% rate over an 8 fight sample size, so she has outperformed market expectations by ~21.5% for a 61% ROI.

How The Fighters Match Up

Holly Holm likes to stick and move on the outside, touch opponents with long strikes, at the end of her punches, and in brief drive by combinations before exiting range or entering deep into a body lock or some other clinch exchange that favors her positionally. She tends to be all the way in or all the way out when she is fighting, as she likes to dictate both range and pace when given the chance to do so. Ketlen Vieira on the other hand is a fight who does not always have reliable confidence to come forward throwing on the feet especially since suffering her first ever KO loss to Irene Aldana. However, she is an imposing grappler with decent pop on her punches, good hips, solid balance, and a strong physical presence. I think Holm will struggle to bully Vieira in the clinch and with takedown attempts as she was able to do to Irene Aldana. I like Vieira to mix her martial arts a bit better, landing strikes in the clinch or on the mat, pursuing takedowns, and forcing Holm to commit to poor exchanges.

Vieira is the significantly younger athlete, but Holm should still have slight advantages in hand and foot speed. However, uf Vieria can implement a leg kick heavy game, clinch control against the fence, and execute on her fairly potent and efficient offensive wrestling to interrupt Holm’s rhythm, she will give herself more opportunities to win the fight. 

Holm vs. Vieira Predictions

This fight will take place in the small octagon at the UFC Apex, and I believe that ultimately favors Vieira. When a grappler needs to get a hold of a striker with good evasive footwork, the best way to encourage grappling action is to bring people closer together in proximity. In addition, Holly Holm has been talking in interviews about having 1 or 2 fights left on her UFC contract before potentially setting her eyes towards a Katie Taylor boxing dream match. If Holm is focused on boxing or anything other than Ketlen Vieira right now, she could be in for a rude awakening on Saturday night.

I trust Holm’s professionalism to show up on shape and having put in the work, but her social media has been extremely quiet, she has pulled out of two fight bookings in 2021 for knee injuries, and she has not fought in the octagon since October of 2020. Now returning at 40 years old and with additional knee injuries against a contemporary 10 years your junior with a style completely built to overwhelm your own doesn’t seem advantageous to me.

Holm has always excelled when she is able to press a bit of a grappling advantage, not when she is conceding the grappling advantage to her opponent (i.e. Valentina Shevchenko, Miesha Tate fights).

While I have seen Holm make improvements over time, father time is undefeated and may have something to say about Holm’s title aspirations in her third iteration in combat sports.

• Prediction: Ketlen Vieira defeats Holly Holm via SUB4 (RNC)
• Pick: Vieira +210, currently available at Caesars Sportsbook
• Prop Bet: Vieira SUB +850