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UFC Vegas 56 Odds: Rozenstruik vs. Volkov Predictions, Picks, & Props

Liam Heslin Sat 6/4 10:36am PT
UFC Vegas odds
(Image Credit: Imagn)

MMA betting expert Liam Heslin takes you inside the octagon to preview UFC Vegas 56 odds, alongside his Rozenstruik vs. Volkov predictions and best picks. Check out our BetMGM bonus to get a $1000 free UFC bet tonight!

UFC Vegas 56 Preview

Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik emerged on the scene in the UFC with three stunning knockouts, including a sub-thirty second knockout of former UFC Champion Andrei Arlovski. He quickly ascended into the top ten of the UFC heavyweight rankings, earning himself a main event opportunity alongside decorated striker and MMA champion Alistair Overeem. Rozenstruik’s performance in that fight demonstrated that he may be underprepared for the elite level of the heavyweight division, but he possesses an unnatural amount of power that can manifest at any point in a fight. Rozenstruik has come back to earth since scoring four straight KO’s to start his UFC career;  he is now 2-3 over his last five in the UFC, having dropped the ball in several important contendership fights. He was instantly knocked out by the windmilling punches of heavyweight king Francis Ngannou in the opening seconds of their 2020 meeting and soundly outpointed by title hopeful Cyril Gane in a 2021 main event. This fight against Volkov represents a chance to reassert himself in an increasingly log-jammed heavyweight contender’s queue (Aspinall, Blaydes, Tuivasa, Miocic, Jones, Gane). 

Alexander Volkov competed at UFC London in March and he was quickly dispatched by Tom Aspinall, who submitted him with an extremely rare hold (the straight armlock) in the very first round. Aspinall appears to be the real deal, so it would be foolish to overreact to this loss for Volkov. However, he does appear to be rushing back to the octagon quite quickly after taking a devastating loss. Volkov was able to turn away Marcin Tybura as a -291 (74.4%) favorite, but he looked slower and more reactive in that fight than I had ever seen him, so I made a mental note that the wheels may be starting to understandably fall off the tracks as Volkov approaches his 45th professional fight. Even prior to his arrival in the UFC, Volkov has been competing at the highest levels in the heavyweight division, so he has accrued more than his fair share of damage over a long and storied career. What has held Volkov back in the UFC is his lack of devastating power at heavyweight, his lack of effective pocket boxing defense, and his inability to keep fights upright when facing persistent wrestlers and grapplers. Skill for skill, Volkov is an elite heavyweight, but I believe that his time in the sport is beginning to run thin, certainly at the upper echelon of the division.

The stakes here are in fact quite simple. If either of these men plan on fighting for a UFC heavyweight championship, this is a fight they will have to win. For Volkov, that window may have already closed. Jairzinho Rozenstruik will be trying to find his footing in the top 10 and continue his climb towards a title shot. Volkov has been soundly defeated in four title eliminator fights against Curtis Blaydes, Derrick Lewis, Cyril Gane, and Tom Aspinall. The odds of Volkov rattling off another win streak in the organization seem quite long at this point. However, the beauty of the fight game lies in its ability to surprise us, so perhaps Volkov has one more impressive run up his sleeve. Given the bounty of evidence to the contrary, I will not be banking on that possibility on Saturday night.

Rozenstruik vs. Volkov Odds Analysis

This fight opened with Alexander Volkov as a -160 (61.5%) money line favorite with a +140 (40.7%) comeback on the underdog Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Since opening, the lines have remained relatively steady, with Volkov sitting at a market average of -156 (60.9%) and Rozenstruik at a market average of +130 (43.5%). The sharpest sportsbook in the world Pinnacle is currently holding a no-vig market of -144 on Volkov (59%) vs. +144 (~41%) so the distribution on domestic and off-shore markets appears to be very similar. In Las Vegas, the consensus odds have dropped from the -160 opener to -155, with the sharpest sportsbooks holding numbers between -145 and -160 on the favorite. 

If you are looking for reasons to back Alexander Volkov this weekend, there is no better argument I can posit: Volkov currently holds a 6-1 record as a UFC favorite (86% win rate) for a 34.2% ROI and a +21.8% win rate vs. expectation (average odds of -179). In fact, I have cashed on Volkov many times in the favorite roll, backing him to dispatch the likes of Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem on the money line and inside the distance. However, after the Tybura under performance and the Aspinall annihilation, the idea of laying chalk on Volkov is much less appealing to me. People may forget that Volkov opened a -146 favorite against Aspinall and by the time the fight took place, he had been bet to an underdog price (market avg. +114; 46.7%). I would not be stunned to see this line flip by fight time; money has been trickling in on Rozenstruik ever so slightly, and sharp bettors tend to take underdogs later in the week after favorites have already been parlayed up to higher prices. Overall, Volkov has been a profitable betting commodity in the UFC. If you bet his ML every fight, your rate of return would be 22% with a record of 8 wins and 4 losses at an average odds of -112 (52.8%).

If you have read my articles for any length of time, you know my preference is to look for live underdogs as opposed to heavy chalk favorites. However, I have to be cognizant of market indicators; Jairzinho Rozenstruik does have one massive red flag from a betting perspective. Bigi Boy is only 2-3 as a UFC underdog (40% win rate; -18.4% ROI) at an average odds of ~+185 (35%). That being said, Rozenstruik has been a profitable betting commodity overall. His moneyline backers have accrued a 21.7% ROI, cashing tickets in 6 of his 9 UFC bouts. Moreover, prop bettors who have trusted the KO power of Jairzinho Rozenstruik have been rewarded handsomely. Every win for Jairzinho inside the organization has come via knockout, cashing both the knockout and inside the distance props at similar prices.

Main Event Prediction

Alexander Volkov has cashed me many tickets, and for that I will always be grateful. However, Jairzinho is a fighter I have had my eye on in this division because he possesses death touch power. Volkov is a volume striker who will need to pressure forward with volume punching, slappy low kicks, and tepes to the body. Jairzinho is a patient counter puncher with natural advantages in speed and athleticism. Volkov will be much taller, slightly longer, and the overall rangier fighter. However, I think that if Bigi Boy can close distance, time strong counters, and chop down the taller man with low kicks, he can find opportunities to land his power punches. Additionally, we saw that Volkov’s takedown defense is somewhat porous and exploitable in open space in his last bout; if Rozenstruik can mix in takedown attempts, he may be able to surprise Volkov. His recent training footage suggests that he has been working on his wrestling and grappling in between fights.

Ultimately, I think that the wrong man may be favored in this fight. If this was a bantamweight fight, I would not want to rely on an alleged “KO or bust” fighter archetype, but at heavyweight, greater than 50% of fights end inside the distance. Moreover, Jairzinho is the fighter in a better position to advance his career with a win in this spot. Volkov is taking on fight number 45 after being shown the door by the divisional elite on four separate occasions. The durability of Jairzinho is broadly reliable (everyone gets a pass for getting KO’d by Frankie Death Touch), his power is remarkable, and his ability to carry power late into a fight may be the difference maker in this spot. We have seen Volkov slow down over the course of his 15 minute bout with Tybura, and he was finished by Derrick Lewis in the biggest statistical comeback in UFC history in Rd. 3 hail mary fashion. Jairzinho’s power will make him live for the entire twenty-five minutes, so I am willing to take a shot with him and buy into his potential. 

I know what you’re thinking: two strikers at heavyweight, why would I ever look at this prop? Volkov is a BJJ brown belt with a decent outside trip takedown, so if he pursued takedowns in this matchup, he may be able to get them and he may have a grappling advantage. However, Rozenstruik has yet to be submitted as a pro while Volkov has been submitted three times. Prior to the Aspinall fight, he had not been submitted since 2010 against Maxim Grishin on the Russian regionals. However, he offered very little resistance in his last fight. If Rozenstruik pursues takedowns in this fight, it is possible Volkov checks out and gives up his arm or his neck with minimal resistance. I think at 35-1 its worth a tiny poke. Rozenstruik statement season!