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Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks & Outrights: The US Open

Timothy Buell Tue 6/14 7:54am PT
Our PGA experts are backing Morikawa to win the 2022 US Open at sportsbooks this week.
Image Credit: Imagn

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for the 2022 U.S. Open! Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting on golf now!

Welcome to my new weekly PGA column! I will be focusing primarily on tournament (or H2H) matchups, but if I think the odds are right, I will throw in an occasional outright wager.

Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.  

We have finally made it to the U.S. Open week and to say that I am excited would be an understatement. This is the most coveted title for every American golfer and is considered one of (if not the most) difficult trophy to win anywhere in the world. 

Quick History Lesson

This year’s U.S. Open will be held at The Country Club, at Brookline. Recognized as the first country club in the United States in 1882, and in 1893, they installed six golf holes. By 1899, the course had established itself the full 18 holes. The Country Club is one of the Five Founding Clubs of the United States Golf Association (USGA).  

Course Layout Breakdown

Now, let’s discuss the course layout, for what we expect to see for this year’s U.S. Open. We have a classic par-70 course that plays at 7,254 yards. Much like other U.S. Open golf courses, there will be very penal rough, and with 82 bunkers scattered around the course, there will be no shortage of drama coming out of the sand this week. 

The greens are POA with a bentgrass mix, so that will not be the same as POA that is seen in California, or other western states.  This will be slightly more bumpy and a little slower. I am only making a note of this because I am throwing POA splits out of my process when projecting golfers this week. 

The other huge note on this course is the size of the greens. They are one of the smallest greens on average than any other tour event other than Pebble Beach. Iron play is absolutely crucial this week since there is essentially no room for error hitting these greens and with thick rough and bunkers waiting for errant shots, getting up and down will not be a cakewalk.  

This week, I am looking for fairway finders off the tee, with some distance, and solid approach shots from 175 yards and above. I may even weigh approach players from 200 yards and above more heavily. I also want to emphasize players that have the ability to gain strokes around the green. 

Like I said above, with such small greens, chipping will be at an absolute premium. Once players get on the green, I am not so concerned about three-putting and I am not going to weigh putting super heavily this week due to its natural variance on any course and especially due to the size of the green’s this week. 

The bottom line this week, gain off the tee and approach – pretty much the same as any week, but this will be one of the toughest tests some of these players have ever seen.  

Before I get to the betting picks, keep in mind this article will be published on Tuesday before the tournament begins. It appears as if rain and wind may become a factor, especially on Friday. 

I will try my best to navigate that situation, but with it being so far out from the event, I won’t have the most accurate forecast to give out.  As a bettor, make sure to do your own research regarding weather to see if there will be an edge when considering your bets. 

Outright Picks for the 2022 U.S. Open

Lowry is coming into this event in top form and hasn’t finished worse than T32 in any stroke play event all season. He ranks 22nd in the field in total driving and is 18th in the field on scrambling from the rough. That is going to be a huge factor this week. 

My favorite attribute about Lowry, other than his exceptional form, is his bogey avoidance numbers. He ranks 3rd in the bogey avoidance metric, which is probably the most factor in any U.S. Open. 

Lowry’s best U.S. Open was another Northeast course, Oakmont Country Club in 2016.  He had a four-shot lead going into the final round, but ended up finishing T2, after firing a final round 76. 

Oakmont certainly has its differences to Brookline but they are both Par 70’s and play roughly the same yardage.  Lowry has been close this season and I think at this number he is a good value for outright play.  

Currently there are 10 golfers that sit with shorter odds than Morikawa, and I think he has a better shot of winning than six of them (DJ, Smith, Xander, Fitzpatrick, Cantlay, Speith).

This immediately gives me value with him at +3000.  It all comes down to the putting for Morikawa. His iron play is the best in the world, and even though he isn’t the longest off the tee, he is tremendously accurate. 

Hitting fairways and hitting greens are going to be the keys this week. He fits both categories at an elite level. Due to the small greens at this course, razor-sharp iron play is going to be more important than putting. If he can even just gain a little in the strokes gained putting metric he should be in contention all week. 

Tournament Head to Head Matchups for the 2022 U.S. Open

If you are following any of the chatter about this year’s U.S. Open, you probably have heard how Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2013 U.S. Amateur Championship at this very same course. While that is quite the accomplishment, the course will be set up significantly more difficult for the U.S. Open. 

Colin Morikawa has already won two majors and although he isn’t in the best form leading into this tournament, he is one of the best players in the world. He is far more talented than Fitzpatrick, and in all honesty these odds should be flipped. 

Their odds are exactly the same in the outright market, which makes me think that the books are getting money in on Fitz and that has artificially brought up this line. At the very worst, Morikawa should be -110 in this H2H. Morikawa is the far superior iron player and with these small greens should give him the advantage in this matchup. 

Billy Horschel is coming into this tournament after a dominating win at The Memorial, and is looking to continue his momentum going into this week. 

Although I am a fan of Horschel, and he looked amazing at Jack’s course, I don’t think this course sets up that well for him.  Whether it be in the golf betting market, or the daily fantasy sports landscape, I want my money to be behind top notch iron players and to have the advantage with strokes gained off the tee.  That is exactly what I get with Conners. 

The putter is what fails Conners at times, but that is the theme I am going with this week. If you hit these small greens and don’t have to play from the long penal rough (or one of the many bunkers surrounding them), you will have a massive advantage this week.